i already have a large wager locked in from early in the week with miami teased up to 16.5, but I gotta tell you, this game straight up is one of the toughest spreads I think Vegas has thrown out to us this season.
KNOWING, that the final line we see is a product of expert prediction, adjusted to attract business on both sides, you have to think that the experts like VT by 7-10 points. Obviously everyone would jump on Miam if the line was that high, so the 6.5 adjustment lures people over to the VT side, in an attempt to balance business on both sides for the game. Thats just a line analysis and what experts predict, and has NOTHING to do with what actually happens on the field Saturday night.
That being said, VT is the stronger team this year, with a CLEAR AND CONVINCING home field advantage. I wouldnt have been surprised to see this line be 10 points for VT, because they could win this game by double digits. We havent seen VT play anyone too tough this year, but I have to admit I underestimated WVU before Wednesday night. Granted WVU fumbled deeeeeep in their own territory in that game giving VT 2 TD's, Hokies were still about a TD better than a very very very good mountaneer team. If they could accomplish that on the road, I'm not sure they can be beaten at home this year. The other thing that worries me about the Miami side of the 6.5 is that VT NEEDS to put on a show. The only way to wedge themselves into the BCS championship game is with "style points". What better place to put on a show than at home on prime time? I'm kinda scared about my miami +16.5, I may have jumped the gun there.
ON the flip side, Miami still has title hopes of its own, that can be rejuvinated with a win this weekend. Their D played extremely well in this matchup last season, but it was at home, and Marcus Vick was not in the picture. Lets face it, Miami is going to have a toug time scoring more than 14 points on Saturday, as they only nabbed 10 last year against Tech in the Orange bowl. This game will hinge on Miami's run D. If they can force Vick to throw and give their secondary a chance to force turnovers, and somehow keep VT under 20 points, they have a shot in this one. LIke I said though, I wouldnt be surprised to see Tech win by 3, I wouldnt be surprised to see Tech win by 23.
Prediction: VT 23- Miami 10
