Capping Baseball

[Spirit991]

Looking for some newbie advice besides reading the forums. I have been doing that and still can't make heads or tails (more of a picture kind of guy) I read alot of finding value in a game where you have a better than average chance of winning you place the money. How do the players on this board come to the decision of playing 3 of say the 15 games listed for the day. I currently look at starting pitchers records, (find myself getting stuck on favourites) batting over last 10 days ( all i really get from this is who's been stronger in the past) I can look at all 15 games and guess on all 15 (NOT A SMART MOVE AND VERY COSTLY) How and what to look for capping baseball how do you eliminate so that you have good picks in say 2 to 3 games a day What is value hadicapping.

I purchased an e book called sportsbetting 101 but its more about terms and money management nothing about how to cap sports what to look for or finding value. I thirts for knowledge. Anyone interested in taking a newbie under thier wing.

 

[Spock]

Hey,

You can start off by following the plays of some people here. I wont name the names but some people at madjack's are really good at some sports. You should go back and read the write-up's that NDNFAN has in the forum. He clearly presents his thinking. That is one way of expanding your thought.

Read the articles written by Nolan Dalla and Nick Douglas among others. These are available under the General Category - Sportsbooks forum. Also on their pages under "Free Picks" and on main page of MadJack's.

I found betting on paper to be very beneficial. Follow the teams and bet on paper for 2-3 weeks and see how you are doing. I think it helps a lot with money management and how u evaluate each play.

Also read up on different stats. You can click on database on this site and get the data for the matchup's. There are different angles that Nolan Dalla has on his page and he is gonna do a writeup soon on other angles.

If u need anythin else hang around post a Qs and hopefull people will answer. If u wanna mail me u can ask Jack for the e-mail.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Rick]

Great advice from spock he answered right before I sent this but I'll post what I had anyway.

I believe you should be able to find help here on the forum. You are going to get a lot of advice from a lot of different people but what you are going to need to figure out is, what will work for you. You should realize that a bad source for information is just as important as a good source. There are a lot of people you can learn from here but you need to watch and see what they do as far as handicapping goes. This takes a lot of work. You might want to watch and listen to IE, Nolan or Jack. Note that in Jack he rarely if at all plays heavy favorites. Others here play heavy favorites or totals. Others just play dogs. Won-Loss records mean nothing its units won. Read others on the forum and look at the criteria they use to pick there plays. NDNFAN good example for writeups. Some might say to play 2-3 games a day and others might say to play more and neither will be wrong, its what works for you. You might bet the same each game, you might want to use the unit method. It all should be determined by you. You need to establish that feel of what works for you. Is it better to cap all the games yourself or should you take input in from other people? When taking information in from other people you need to know whether the source of that information is a good or bad source. This takes a great deal of time. I honestly suggest playing things out on paper for a month or 2 (Just like Spock says). Take in advice from others and just decipher it to where you are comfortable. Its natural for you to like the favorites thats why they are the favorites. Come on the Play of the Day thread and see how you do. Use Jacks bestbettor and track how you do. Watch line movements. If you are offshore or local see if you can spot the smart books. For example yesterday the Cubs/W Sox game the line came out 160-170. The smart books here in Chicago came out at 150. Put the offshores up against each other see who is smarter. Some are slower to move their lines. Learn to read lines. Know the good sources. Know your limitations and know money management. Just a few thoughts since you asked and no one had answered yet. Try and learn all this before you start to play for real because baseball isn't easy, and there are not many players that can play a whole season without getting hurt bad at some point or possibly get tired of the grind. I was talking with a good friend from this board today and he said he was worried about the second half because he had such a good first half. Know what you are good at. You won't catch me doing much NBA because I suck at it, but I know it at least. Best advice I can give you is you need to take yourself under your own wing. You are the one responsible for each play you make. When you lose you are to blame. Learn before you play, don't pay for that experience. Just my 2 cents let some others give you their thoughts and take it all in. No one is right and no one is wrong. Good Luck

 

[cooz3]

great advice from both above...im not sure there is much more perspective i can give on the subject than they can...i have only been capping games for around two years so im also learning on a daily basis...that is one thing that i can tell you for sure...youre learning curve will increase almost daily and i can safely assume that this game can never truly be mastered..thats why its gambling...i can tell you that there are never enough angles to look at ...but there are certain angles you will find that are much more solid than others..its a trial and error game just like everything else in life...I would advise you to test your angles and bets for a bit and see what you think are the best way to cap these games...everyone is different and everyone does things there own way...find a system that works for you....I think its a must you go to the resource page offered by this site and check out the information offered ...some of these i find o.k. others i find not so o.k....and others i find almost indespensible in capping a game...i think it was said earlier that information is only as good as its source ...thats very important to remember and great advice...i would be more than happy to answer any questions you have and help you out anytime.and im sure youll prbably show me a few things as well..remember however no one ...no one is right 100% of the time... good luck..cooz

 

[Spirit991]

WOW Some great responses and much appreciated

I happened to start betting during the 2nd round of the hockey playoffs and got lucky with 16-9 +13.85 units $100 being a unit. I say luckey as these were all hunches. Didn't do any capping as I don't know how. Just am more comfortable with the game having played at the pro level and some of my Buds still playing so I played alot based on thiere tendancies.

Baseball a different story and wanting to learn all I can. How I have been looking at ball games to date is as follows: The starting pitchers record and runs for and against. Batting: teams strentghs against LHP or RHP previous days hits and runs. Bullpen I look at but not sure how to read it besides ERA would like to know more about individuals and the probability of them going in the game as most average pitchers besides the big names Johnston/Schilling/ Glavin etc are only lasting 5 maybe 6 innings this means to me the bullpen is having a great emphises on the outcome.

If a team is stronger 2 out of 3 of these areas I ussually play them. This can happen on most of the 10 plus games in a day. What other pertinent info in the match ups should I be considering? I don't have the bankroll yet to play all games in a day and am sure this is not the most profitable wat to play either, i'm sure picking 2or 3 solid value plays on any given day would be best. What angled should I use to elliminate and leave myself with more solid plays?

Learning different angles would be very beneficial to find what works for me and what doesn't as we are all different but don't know any angles or systems. I now have a 2" binder filled with articles from this forum and would find them to be usefull if only i could decipher or understand them (need Pictures) They have taught me to crave more though. I have started at best bets and I play on paper with the occaisional money play in there and so far not having much success in my picks. mostly guess work. (need to be more claravoient I guess)

Reading lines and watching movement in them maybe you could ellaborate more on this as i would like to know how to do it and how its beneficial?

I wish to thank all of you who took the time to answer my annoying or repetative questions its truly appreciated and hope I can return the favour someday.
Marc

 

[Rick]

I say luckey as these were all hunches. Didn't do any capping as I don't know how. ]


You already have said a few important things. Learn to trust that nose. Good Luck

 

[Lil Joe]

Absolutely fantastic advice from you guys. this is what sports forums are all about. Going out of your way to take the time to help each other out. Especially the part about following your nose. My grandfather is a major player and thats just the advise he gave me. Forget everything else just follow your nose and your instincts.

 

[sneaky pete]

Spirit new to the forum but not to some of the names on this board. WOW. Not sure if you know DaMans credentials but I have seen his posts at various places over the years and this guy is incredible. Especially Pro Football. Made a ton off him in years past. Follow his advice and you'll do fine. Good Luck

 

[Rick]

Pete thanks. Where the hell have you been? Lost you when those old boards closed, damn shoot me an email, same as its always been. Talk to you later.

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

SNEAKY PETE, JUST NOTICED THAT URE A NEW MEMBER HERE AT MADJACKS.....GREAT TO HAVE YOU., BUD.....HOPE ALL IS WELL WITH U, MY MAN.....RICK[DAMAMSPORTS] IS HERE AS WELL AND HES STILL POSTIN WINNERS AS USUAL, ESPECIALLY IN FOOTS..

SHOOT ME AN E-MAIL BUDDY...

GLUCK, BURGH...

 

[Nick Douglas]

The book you bought is actually somewhat correct in that money management is far more important over the long term than actually picking winners. Remember that and stay disciplined.

As far as handicapping baseball, I have found success trying to gauge recent play and the up and down swings of pitchers and teams. Sometimes teams will have wins in which they are outplayed and losses in which they outplay the opposition and those scenarios often lead to value one way or another down the road. For pitchers, weakness is generally found in high WHIP, bad K/BB ratio, high pitch counts and lots of home runs given up. Overuse also applies for the bullpen in terms of pitching long outings or going several days in a row.

 

[Dr Raider]

My 2 CENTS:

Keeping accurate records of every wager you make is the most helpful thing for me. Go back over them again and again and see what is winning or losing for you.
Also, laying heavy juice (i.e., anything over -140) can get the best of a guy.
Sometimes everything works, while on the other hand, sometimes no matter what the hell you do, nothing works.
Some people may think I'm NUTS, but I think a lot of it is just LUCK and you either get breaks or don't. And while money management is essential, if you aren't picking winners you may have a pretty big hole to dig out of - in any sport. . .

 

[Code Red]

Just a follow-up on the above post. Raider has a very good point about not laying too much juice. That to me is the single biggest bankroll killer. Betting dogs is the way to go, and as a matter of fact, I have gotten slaughtered on favorites once too often till I got to the point where I won't lay ANYTHING that isn't over even. I don't care if it's a -105 game, I won't play it. Just look at what happened tonight with Houston @-180. Look at Pedro's last 4 games. Just a few days ago with Arizona's Schilling losing to Detroits' Maroth. Who would have thought that would happen? I'll swear, it seems to me almost as if dogs win MORE than favorites do.

What I do is either take the dog, or if I feel the favorite is strong enough, I will bet the run line. If I win, I win more and if I lose, I don't lose as much, so it's really beneficial in two respects. Gone are the days when I will put myself in a position where I can lose more than I win.

 

[monkey]

set limits

set limits

I set limits

I never go past-160 on a fav
3-4 game a day or less if im in a down week
I used to bet alot of parlays got out of that deal I only play parlays
if really think they got a shot 1 a week sometimes.
If Im having a good week maybe add a few plays

I make my pick then look at the forum if someone has a good point on a team that Im going against will recap the game
maybe i missed something

If all else fails ask the eight ball