Cards tonight?

L

Livin'tillthEnd

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Ok, few things to look at tonight.
Everyone expects TEX to bounce back tonight. Colby Lewis has been money in the postseason. The line has moved from STL -106 to now TEX
-115 with approz 72% on TEX.
To me, TEX was the play last night. I even was looking at TEX for the series.
BUT, and its a big but, STL has been hot, even hotter than TEX.
Granted, Lewis has better postseason numbers and has pitched better his last 3 outings than Garcia, but Garcia had better overall regular season numbers. My point being, he's no slouch and has been solid at HOME.
Lewis benefited from crazy run support this year, but given TEX has hit .192 vs lefties their last 10 games and a mediocre .254 on the road this year, I have a hard time believing that will continue.
Plus, STL their last 10 games is hitting a sizzling
.297 against righties. Not good when Lewis has shown he will leave the ball up or regular occassions.
If thats not enough, behind the dish tonight is Greg Gibson, the Cards are 20-7 their last 27 games and TEX is 2-5 their last 7 with Gibson as ump. Also, in interleague play, the home team is 22-9 last 31.

Looking at the total, and with TEX struggling against lefties recently, this may not be an "easy" over. The fact it has dropped to 8 with a consensus slamming the over, there is some concern. Gibson is 42-13-6 to the under his last 61 and as we saw last night, the ball does not carry as well in colder conditions.

I will wait a little while longer to lock STL in, but the numbers for me are making a case to take STL as much as I hate to being a TEX fan. gl

4-6 +40
 
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jtc1984

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Washington needs to shake his lineup up....1-2-3 are not looking good....he won't though and he'll hope to out muscle the Cards with his 5-6-7 hitters....LaRussa will out manage him again..I agree the Cards and under look good tonight
 
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bryanz

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Livin'tillthEnd said:
Ok, few things to look at tonight.
Everyone expects TEX to bounce back tonight. Colby Lewis has been money in the postseason. The line has moved from STL -106 to now TEX
-115 with approz 72% on TEX.
To me, TEX was the play last night. I even was looking at TEX for the series.
BUT, and its a big but, STL has been hot, even hotter than TEX.
Granted, Lewis has better postseason numbers and has pitched better his last 3 outings than Garcia, but Garcia had better overall regular season numbers. My point being, he's no slouch and has been solid at HOME.
Lewis benefited from crazy run support this year, but given TEX has hit .192 vs lefties their last 10 games and a mediocre .254 on the road this year, I have a hard time believing that will continue.
Plus, STL their last 10 games is hitting a sizzling
.297 against righties. Not good when Lewis has shown he will leave the ball up or regular occassions.
If thats not enough, behind the dish tonight is Greg Gibson, the Cards are 20-7 their last 27 games and TEX is 2-5 their last 7 with Gibson as ump. Also, in interleague play, the home team is 22-9 last 31.

Looking at the total, and with TEX struggling against lefties recently, this may not be an "easy" over. The fact it has dropped to 8 with a consensus slamming the over, there is some concern. Gibson is 42-13-6 to the under his last 61 and as we saw last night, the ball does not carry as well in colder conditions.

I will wait a little while longer to lock STL in, but the numbers for me are making a case to take STL as much as I hate to being a TEX fan. gl

4-4 +190
Click to expand...

why was tx the play last night ??? tx may bounce back, I'm not one that expects it... it's possible .....they looked scared after that gm in the post gm interviews... I don't care what they say, the aint over last yr yet... can't remember this much pressure on a team in gm 2 of the ws....
 
ppabart

ppabart

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Honestly, tonight is StL or nothing for me, too. I think a lot of people are going to put a lot of faith into the "bounce back" game, like you mentioned. I had Colby Lewis on my fantasy team this year so I am well aware of his entire season. He's completely feast or famine. As of late, he's been great...yes. I honestly see tonight's pitching matchup as a total wash. So that leaves the home field advantage with StL and better managing with StL........

Just my two cents.
 
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Livin'tillthEnd

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jtc1984 said:
Washington needs to shake his lineup up....1-2-3 are not looking good....he won't though and he'll hope to out muscle the Cards with his 5-6-7 hitters....LaRussa will out manage him again..I agree the Cards and under look good tonight
Click to expand...

Unfortunately Wash trusts and is loyal to his guys to a fault. No way in hell Young should be batting 4...gl jtc
 
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Livin'tillthEnd

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bryanz said:
why was tx the play last night ??? tx may bounce back, I'm not one that expects it... it's possible .....they looked scared after that gm in the post gm interviews... I don't care what they say, the aint over last yr yet... can't remember this much pressure on a team in gm 2 of the ws....
Click to expand...

that was my initial hunch bryanz, but slept on it, dissecting it a bit--and now there is no way I can put money on tex...i might get a better price on stl by waiting it out a bit...may even spread a little on alt run line--respect your insight man--gl
 
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Livin'tillthEnd

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ppabart said:
Honestly, tonight is StL or nothing for me, too. I think a lot of people are going to put a lot of faith into the "bounce back" game, like you mentioned. I had Colby Lewis on my fantasy team this year so I am well aware of his entire season. He's completely feast or famine. As of late, he's been great...yes. I honestly see tonight's pitching matchup as a total wash. So that leaves the home field advantage with StL and better managing with StL........

Just my two cents.
Click to expand...

yeah man, I hate to go against my team who have played really good this year. Hopefully they can rekindle the magic, just hard to see it happen tonight. They haven't lost b2b games in 40 games, so they are resilient, but another cold, dreary game. I'm sure they'll be back ready to go here in TX. We'll have highs in the low to mid 80s, lows in the 60s.
 
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kcwolf

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Nice discussion, at times it makes the MJ forum top out at better than best thanks to everyone and Jack and IE.

gsp is a very wise and a sage on these forums for a long time, someone I consider a friend. Don't overlook the umpire, you have a strong under umpire, and gsp has been way more correct than wrong in this situation. Umpires make a collective call on how games will be call in each respective city, and usually changes when going to the next city. It has already profited for me in this post season - gsp's advice. Thanks again gsp.

With that in mind, one should look at the under first for game two, regardless of the home plate umpire.

But now you add the cold, wind blowing in again, and an under umpire - going against the odds with the over is what I see. The under is 4-12 this year in St. Louis under similiar conditions.

As for the game, as an ex-MLB minor leaguer, one thing stands out. Lewis is 9 days from his last start, Garcia is close to his regular rotation. Big difference to me. Colby also has a pitch count last game that bothers me, especially PPI.

Carry on, thanks.
 
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Livin'tillthEnd

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kcwolf said:
Nice discussion, at times it makes the MJ forum top out at better than best thanks to everyone and Jack and IE.

gsp is a very wise and a sage on these forums for a long time, someone I consider a friend. Don't overlook the umpire, you have a strong under umpire, and gsp has been way more correct than wrong in this situation. Umpires make a collective call on how games will be call in each respective city, and usually changes when going to the next city. It has already profited for me in this post season - gsp's advice. Thanks again gsp.

With that in mind, one should look at the under first for game two, regardless of the home plate umpire.

But now you add the cold, wind blowing in again, and an under umpire - going against the odds with the over is what I see. The under is 4-12 this year in St. Louis under similiar conditions.

As for the game, as an ex-MLB minor leaguer, one thing stands out. Lewis is 9 days from his last start, Garcia is close to his regular rotation. Big difference to me. Colby also has a pitch count last game that bothers me, especially PPI.

Carry on, thanks.
Click to expand...

I hear you KC, the only thing that bothers me a bit about the under is if Lewis completely chokes it away. Like you mentioned Lewis is 9 days off last start. I could see him giving up 5-6 on his own. STL is the more solid of the two for me, sprinkled with some alt runline.
 
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