CBB betting article

[Terryray]

allright, this guy's a tout, but seems to have good info here. I'm looking over this stuff now 'cause there's no hockey to bet...

what do you all think of this? You think we can continue to make money betting against The Citadel and FL Int'l? Is it true linesmakers never--to the end of the season--- catch up to some teams in college hoops?



BOOKMAKERS CONTINUE TO WIN AS PUBLIC PLAYS IN "POPULARITY" CONTEST....


By Kelso Sturgeon

Most bookmakers took a tremendous financial beating during the past college football season but say they are making a big comeback in basketball-both the college and NBA variety. Their success is based in two things-the public's perpetual love affair with a handful of college teams and their sado-masochistic desire to play Russian Roulette each night in the NBA.

The college figures confirm the mindset of bettors, while there is no objective or rational way to explain the unpredictable ups and downs that are epidemic in the National Basketball Association. In fact things have become to bad in the NBA, many teams do not know whether the guy who coached them last night will coach them tonight.

This past Saturday there were 103 college basketball games on the board, giving bettors the opportunity make more than 300 individual wagers on each game-betting the side, the total or the money line. In the past, bettors could bet sides in all games, make totals wagers on a few high profile TV games and find a money line or two.

Thanks to the market expansion by CRIS, one of the biggest and most successful of all the offshore books, offers totals and money lines on every single game, including those in the "added" category. Most books are expected to follow suit, if they have not already begun to do so.

But back to those 103 college basketball games and what they reveal about bettors.

Overall, favorites went 52-43-8 against the spread, which means the public's choice covered 54.7% of the time.

The figures involved the Top 25 college teams in the country revealed a far different profile. On Saturday 19 ranked teams were in action and 10 of them lost outright. Those biting the dust included three Top 10 teams, fourth-ranked Louisville (at home to Marquette, 77-70), fifth-ranked Kentucky (on the road at Vanderbilt, 66-60) and seventh ranked Cincinnati (at home to NC-Charlotte, 86-83).

The figures may look a little better if one factors into the equation that two of the Top 25 teams lost to two other Top 25 teams-14th ranked Texas Tech (70-66 at 19th ranked Oklahoma State) and 16th ranked Georgia Tech (82-74 at home to number one ranked Duke).

But the price one pays for focusing bets on the popular public teams in the land is real. On Saturday, Top 25 teams went 5-14-1 against the number for a win percentage of 26.3. For the week, they went 14-27 against the number, a win percentage of 34.1.
This handicapper has not done sufficient research to declare this past Saturday was a true reflection of overall pointspread results when one focuses just on Top 25 teams, but the anecdotal evidence strongly suggests one pays a big price for staying on the beaten path in college basketball.


DUKE SHOWS ITS POWER BY THE NUMBERS...

While one pays an added price for betting on Top 25 teams, or on teams such as Michigan State that have a big public following, there is another side to this story.
Duke, the top-ranked team in the country is 18-1 (it's only loss was at home to Purdue) and stands 12-6 against the number. This means the Blue Devils, as high-profile a team as one can find, are classic over-achievers. Ditto for Cincinnati, which is 15-2 straight up (it's only two losses were at Louisville and this past Saturday at home against NC-Charlotte) and 11-3 against the number.

But most high-profile teams don't cut it in beating the pointspread.

Kentucky is 14-3 straight up and 5-9 against the spread.
Kansas is 13-4 and 5-10 in those categories, while defending national champion Syracuse is 14-3 and 5-9. Arizona, another public team, is 14-4 and 7-10 while Connecticut, which began the season ranked Number One in the polls is 17-3 and 6-10.
For the record, the two remaining unbeaten (at this writing) teams-St. Joseph's and Sanford are both 18-0 straight up and a respective 11-5-1 and 11-6 against the number.

THE EDGE IS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT OFF THE BEATEN PATH..

Statistical studies show high-profile teams grow in their over-rated status as the season progresses and, even if they have done well against the number earlier, hit the wall when conference play begins. Conference games are by their very nature closer than non-conference games and that makes the extra point or two one lays with popular teams even more difficult to overcome.

My bottom line says the gold mine lays off the beaten path, even with some nationally ranked teams.

For instance, the record says one certainly can't get a good price with nationally ranked teams such as Kansas and Kentucky simply because of the media coverage they get. But that is not the case if you are Mississippi State and you operate out of a place named Starkville or if you are Air Force and happen to be leading the Mountain West Conference-in front of such nationally prominent teams such as Utah, BYU and UNLV.

While Mississippi State is off to an amazing 18-1 start, few are paying attention and this talented group of Bulldogs is 13-3 against the number and remains one of the most under-rated in college basketball. The same can be said for Air Force, which is 15-2 straight up and 7-2 against the numbers and with powerful wins over Utah, BYU and at New Mexico and San Diego State.

Other out of the way teams offering bettors excellent value are:
Ala-Birmingham-13-5 SU and 11-5 ATS.
Pacific-13-7 SU and 12-4 ATS.
Rice-15-5 SU and 9-5 ATS.
Texas-El Paso-15-4 SU and 11-4 ATS.
Western Michigan-15-2 SU and 11-4 ATS.
Wichita State-13-7 SU and 11-5 ATS.
Wisconsin-Green Bay-13-7 SU and 10-4 ATS.
Wright State-11-9 SU and 12-6 ATS.

These are just a few teams that, because of where they are located, or because of the recent history, are winning money for bettors every night, while remaining under-rated and offering real value. One can search the records of each of the 326 NCAA I-A college basketball teams and find at least 15 or 20 more teams just like this.

History says these teams will retain their value right through the end of the season, ignored right to the end by linemakers and bookmakers.

BET AGAINST THESE TWO TEAMS AND WIN A FORTUNE...

Most bettors look for teams on which they can bet, but there also some teams that are certified go-against teams. At the present time, there are two college teams on which lines are offered that are so lacking in talent that one could bet against them every single night and make a small fortune between now and the end of the season.

They are The Citadel, which is 4-15 straight up and 1-10 against the number, and Florida International, which is 3-16 straight up and 2-11 against the spread. My figures say one can bet against them at home and on the road and expect to collect.
This is not to imply they won't get an occasional cover but it won't happen often.

We will simply say these are two teams made for those who don't have a lot of time to handicap. When you see them playing, just call the man and get down against them. No handicapping needed. Just bet.

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK MEANS SOMETHING...

This handicapper is one who operates in the world of the "classical overview", a field of thought that says everything that has happened in the past, and everything that is coming in the future, will have some impact on how a team plays today. There is no such thing as an insignificant fact. Everything matters, at least a little bit.

It is against this background that one needs to address the performances of several teams that all played last Saturday. There were reasons they won and lost and reasons they won and lost against the number. Understanding the small things will help us better analyze how they will perform this week.
--Kentucky, which lost by six at Vanderbilt, hit just 25-of-67 field goal attempts (37.3%) and was just 7-of-9 from the free throw line. The Commodores were 20-of-48 from the field (41.7%) but went to the free throw line 26 times, hitting 19. Can we call this a "homer".
--North Carolina ran into a buzz-saw in losing at Clemson, 81-72, played a decent game but the Tigers hit 55.6% of their field goals (25-of-45) and had a big edge at the free throw line. In that game Clemson had 33 free throw attempts and hit 20, while North Carolina made 16 less trips to the charity stripe and made 10.
--Purdue, which was upset at home by Ohio State, played without leading scorer Ken Lowe, hit just 17-of-47 field goal attempts (36.2%) while Ohio State was 24-of-47 (51.1%) and out-rebounded the Boilermakers, 30-21. This team needs Lowe, who was out with an injury, to beat almost anybody.
--UCLA played so poorly in its Madison Square Garden 71-55 loss to St. John's that it defied explanation. The Bruins hit 4-of-15 free throws (26.7%), 5-of-15 three pointers (33.3%) and was down by 17 at the half. In the meantime the defense gave up 10 three pointers to a team that went into the game 4-13 straight up and had had problems being competitive against the Little Sisters of Mercy. St. John's was the fifth straight team to throw a zone defense at UCLA, and it worked. The Bruins have lost all those games. Big troubles?

It also is important to note that Kentucky, which lost, and Arizona, which won 61-57 as a 10-point favorite at Washington State, again showed the weakness that will keep either from going far in the NCAA tournament. Neither has any depth and it will get them before it's all over.

 

[Terryray]

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OFF THE RADAR:
HORIZON CONFERENCE HIGHS AND LOWS NOT REGISTERING WITH VEGAS ODDSMAKERS
With well over 200 teams to keep track of, Las Vegas linesmakers often have trouble keeping up with all the developments all over the country. Sometimes, entire conferences stay "off the radar" as the poor guys behind the counter struggle day by day to get numbers up on the board that protect the casinos and keep the smart money at bay

One such conference this year is the HORIZON conference in the Midwest. We talked earlier this year about how Vegas completely missed the dramatic drop-off this year from perennially Horizon power Butler. They've also missed unexpected performances from several other Horizon teams as well.

Let's take a look:

WRIGHT STATE
The Raiders have jumped out to a shocking 8-2 straight up start in conference play. This from a team that was supposed to be at the bottom of the conference according to the preseason pundits.

They opened the season very inconsistently, losing badly to an awful South Florida team, and dropping a 103-66 loss at Toledo. But, when not stinking up the joint they pulled upsets over Brown and Ball State, and stayed within the number against a strong Southern Illinois team.

Since conference play began, it's been a whole new story. Wright State is an amazing 5-0 straight up on the road, despite being an underdog in every single game! They've also won twice as home underdogs. You'd think by now Vegas would have gotten their numbers right. The Raiders established a month ago that they had reached a new level of play, but they've still covered five of their last six games.

WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY
No, it's not the Packers. It's actually the Phoenix, which makes things even more confusing. Green Bay covered two of its only three board games before conference play started, and had gone an impressive 7-3 ATS through 10 conference games. That includes upsets of Butler (a 19-point cover), Wright State (an 11-point cover), and Loyola of Chicago (a 6-point cover).

Vegas was apparently still thinking of this as a team that was helpless on the court, especially on the road. Last year Green Bay covered just 2 of 13 games away from their home floor. This year though, they've been a surprising money-maker.

WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE
Joining Wright State and Wisconsin Green Bay as projected also-rans who have done well are the Panthers of Wisconsin Milwaukee.

As with Wright State, pre-conference play wasn't that impressive. Milwaukee lost badly to Wisconsin 89-71, and Air Force 71-49. They failed to cover their only non-conference home game in a 81-77 loss to Southern Illinois (which may turn out to be a bracket buster).

Since Horizon action play began though, Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS. Like Wright State they're also 5-0 straight up and ATS on the road, but these guys were favored in four of the five games. At least Vegas was giving them some respect. But, the cover margins show it's not nearly enough. Milwaukee has covered their five road games by margins of 8, 11, 5, 20, and 12 points, and their home games by margins of 15, 5, and 5 points. One of the non-covers was by just a point, in an 11-point win over Wisconsin Green Bay as a 12-point favorite.

BUTLER
The first three teams we discussed have overachieved expectations. Though we warned everyone about Butler weeks ago, they're still one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Bulldogs are 1-7-1 ATS away from home this season, and are a woeful 2-8 ATS since conference play began.

It was obvious back in November and December that there were problems, but they're still 2-8 ATS in conference play! Vegas and the wagering public just refuse to believe how far this team has fallen. The line has been getting closer in recent games. Butler is losing by 3 in pick-em games, or losing by 12 as a 7-point underdog (Vegas must have swallowed hard when they made Wisconsin-Milwaukee a 7-point favorite over Butler, but it still wasn't enough). But the number still hasn't quite made it to the right place yet.

In fact, Butler's only two covers in Horizon action came against teams who are also struggling?the two teams left in today's discussion.

CLEVELAND STATE
Back on November 29th, the Vikings had an inexplicably close game with North Carolina. They were 15-point underdogs on their home court (justifiably based on what everyone had seen before or since), but scared the heck out of the Tar Heels before losing 82-76.

Since that game, Cleveland State is 3-11 ATS. Like Butler they're 2-8 ATS in conference play. They've yet to cover a home game in conference action even though they've been favored more than half the time. You can't be too hard on new coach Mike Garland. The cupboard was left bare by the sorry final days of Rollie Massimino's career. Some programs need time to rebuild. Our point is not that Cleveland State is a disaster, but that Vegas should have noticed by now that it's a disaster, and adjusted the lines accordingly.

LOYOLA-CHICAGO
The Ramblers go by both Loyola Illinois and Loyola Chicago, and we'll do our best to confuse you by alternating titles during the course of the season. And that's not even bringing up Illinois-Chicago, who's in the same conference.

Loyola is another team that made it clear early in the season that they weren't going to be anything special. Since Horizon action began, they're 3-6-1 ATS?and have a woeful 89-59 non-conference loss to Providence to boot.

This brings us to six teams, which is two-thirds of the conference that Las Vegas is out of synch with in one form or another.

Tonight there are three games in the Horizon Conference. Here's the schedule:
*Wisconsin Green Bay at Cleveland State
*Youngstown State at Detroit
*Wisconsin Milwaukee at Illinois Chicago

The only matchup featuring a pair or our teams in this article is the first one?as underrated Green Bay visits overrated Cleveland State. Let's see if the worm starts turning tonight, or if Vegas stays behind the eight-ball for a few more weeks.

Saturday's Horizon slate:
*Wright State at Wisconsin Milwaukee
*Butler at Loyola Chicago
*Cleveland State at Detroit
*Wisconsin Green Bay at Youngstown State

 

[Terryray]

the rest

the rest

WHAT YOU SEE RIGHT NOW IN COLLEGE BASKETBALL IS WHAT YOU GET...


By Kelso Sturgeon

The key to winning college basketball bets right now should be a lot easier than many make it. What you see is what you get and this fact alone should reduce the challenge of finding a team that can cover the number.

We know Duke (19-1) is the number one ranked team in the country and that second-ranked Stanford (19-0) and St. Joseph's (19-0) are trying to become the first NCAA 1-A teams since UNLV in 1990-91 to finish the regular season undefeated.

The only thing overlooked by many bettors is that these three teams, and a host of others, are also beating the number with consistency, led by Stanford's 13-5 mark. St. Joseph's is 13-6 against the number, while Duke is 12-7.

Needless to say, not all value is hidden in the bushes.
Value is created by two things-a general softness in numbers created by linemakers who believe that all teams, including the powerful, will regress to the mean and by the public perception element that is factored into all lines.

In other words, lines are offered to the public in a manner that is supposed to make teams 50-50 against the number during the season. This is the foundation rule of bookmaking, since those taking bets bank on the fact the financial structure of wagering is set up to make a 5% profit. That profit is created by paying the bettors off at even-money while collecting an $11 for each $10 bet from the losers.

At this point of the season, there really are no secrets. Teams are what they appear to be, so far as their ratings from linemakers. There are teams over-rated, which means you have an edge betting against them and teams that are under-rated, which means you have an edge betting on them.
Here is a list of teams in both categories.

OVER-RATED TEAMS...

Akron is 10-9 SU and 4-10 ATS.
Appalachian State is 8-14 SU and 6-12 ATS.
Arizona State is 8-10 SU and 2-14 ATS.
Butler is 9-11 SU and 5-12 ATS.
Central Michigan is 3-17 SU and 4-15 ATS.
Citadel is 4-16 SU and 1-11 ATS.
Cleveland State is 4-17 SU and 4-11 ATS.
Detroit is 9-10 SU and 5-9 ATS.
East Carolina is 9-9 SU and 4-7 ATS.
Florida International is 3-16 SU and 2-11 ATS.
Fordham is 4-14 SU and 5-10 ATS.
Georgetown is 12-5 SU and 3-9 ATS.
Idaho State is 9-13 SU and 4-12 ATS.
Kansas is 14-4 SU and 5-10 ATS.
Loyola-Chicago is 7-14 SU and 5-12 ATS.
Missouri is 9-9 SU and 4-7 ATS.
Morehead State is 10-10 SU and 4-9 ATS.
New Mexico State is 9-9 SU and 4-8 ATS.
Ohio State is 11-10 SU and 5-15 ATS.
South Florida is 6-11 SU and 5-10 ATS.
Syracuse is 14-4 SU and 5-10 ATS.
Tulane is 7-11 SU and 3-8 ATS.
Tulsa is 7-12 SU and 5-10 ATS.
Weber State is 10-10 SU and 3-9 ATS.
Wyoming is 9-10 SU and 4-12 ATS.
Xavier is 11-9 SU and 5-13 ATS.

UNDER-RATED TEAMS...

Air Force is 15-3 SU and 7-3 ATS.
Ala-Birmingham is 13-5 SU and 11-5 ATS.
Cincinnati is 15-3 SU and 11-4 ATS.
Columbia is 6-11 SU and 7-3 ATS.
Duke is 19-1 SU and 13-5 ATS.
Furman is 11-9 SU and 10-3 ATS.
George Washington is 12-8 SU and 13-7 ATS.
Georgia Southern is 17-3 SU and 11-2 ATS.
Hawaii is 15-4 SU and 11-6 SU.
LA-Lafayette is 11-5 SU and 9-2 ATS.
LSU is 15-4 SU and 9-5 ATS.
Louisiana Tech is 10-9 SU and 9-4 ATS.
Mississippi State is 18-1 SU and 13-3 ATS.
N.C. State is 13-5 SU and 10-4 ATS.
Pacific is 13-7 SU and 12-4 ATS.
Princeton is 9-6 SU and 7-2 ATS.
Rice is 15-5 SU and 9-5 ATS.
Rutgers is 13-6 SU and 11-5 ATS.
St. Joseph's is 19-0 SU and 11-6 ATS.
Seton Hall is 14-5 SU and 11-5 ATS.
Stanford is 19-0 SU and 13-5 ATS.
Tennessee State is 4-15 SU and 12-4 ATS.
Texas A&M is 7-11 SU and 6-3 ATS.
Texas-El Paso is 15-4 SU and 11-4 ATS.
Utah State is 17-1 SU and 11-5 ATS.
Western Michigan is 16-2 SU and 12-4 ATS.
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 13-7 SU and 10-4 ATS.
Wright State is 12-9 SU and 13-6 ATS.

 

[deportes]

Interesting stuff. Thanks