CFB Week 4 Covid Edition

[Riff-Raff]

I have been going over video of several games scheduled for the weekend... I have been watching more games (mainly because I was starved College Athletics) and also, I'm running my numbers earlier in the week and seeing where the discrepancies lie in regards to what the market is doing. There is so much guessing due to this COVID thing and so much "unknown" that needs to be factored into each game. I played College Football and I try to put myself into the minds of these players and try to hypothesize all possible external influences and how the game might play out but there is so much misinformation taking place, I have no alternative but try to read between the lines........... For some odd reason the NCAA is allowing Schools to keep their Covid numbers close to the vest and you have no idea when its announced that Team A has 8 positive but no clue as to the positions affected. I'm not exactly sure why this is taking place unless the Coaching Staff for Team A doesn't want to broadcast their weaknesses, to perhaps not giving info to their adversary to allow an unfair advantage?? Of course, this lack of knowledge is a minefield for punters......... I dunno!

Last week I made some very large wagers and took a hard position on LA Tech +5' playing So Miss. My nephew just turned 21 so we decided to make a run to Reno in order to show him the ropes and meet some people connected to the Books I like to play at. *Yeah, I know, I'm corrupting him early......I was quite surprised to find the number for that game at +6' to +7......I know Musca said he got it at +7' (but I never saw the 7 with the hook on Sat). I decided to start throwing money at various books we went to and by the time we hit the Peppermill (15 minutes before kick off) We decided to stay put and watch the game there. *If you are ever in Reno, I highly recommend you check out the Peppermill.. They have upgraded their Casino over the past 10 years and it's very world class. The Screens/TVs in the Sportsbook are incredible and state of the Art.... Not my first choice due to the way the book is setup but very worthwhile and the Deli is outstanding.

I wear a Smartwatch and was quite interested in watching the sensors go off the chart as the game was a good one, but when So Miss looked like it was going to pull away, I was ready to toss the damn watch.......Since about 40% of my numbers were at +5', I was thinking that my Dr wouldn't be impressed with my blood pressure; especially since LA Tech was 4th and 3 with about 10 seconds left in game and Tech trailing 30-24 ...... The fact that the WR made the catch at the back of the end zone but was waved out of bounds was raising havoc with that stupid watch again. Turned out the play went to the booth and ruled a TD and meant all bets cashed. My nephew thought it was the greatest game he had ever seen but I'm sure that had everything to do with the Dime he had on the Bulldogs.

Good Times :tmi:

 

[Riff-Raff]

Thurs 9/24

UAB/So Alabama Under 48........ 8 u

*Bragging rights on the line in the "Battle for the Belt".... Both teams are making it a habit of playing on Thurs Night games.........Line opened at 49 but was quickly dropped and appears it isn't done yet (that's the reason I wanted to post).... HC Bill Clark's teams are pretty much known for his Defense first teams.... He teaches great mechanics in form tackling and loves to coach havoc. This philosophy is illustrated by Blazers already causing 3 forced fumbles and 14 TFL.....

Interestingly, both starting QBs are out (although So Alabama QB Desmond Trotter is nursing a sore shoulder) he is expected to get some reps as the game marches on. Taking over the reigns is a Juco transfer from Mississippi Gulf Coast QB C Lovertich (he led Miss Gulf to National Championship) and is a big reason incoming Juco from same college, LB Mike Smith (highly recruited) will be helping to fortify the Jags into a competitive football team. So Alabama has long been looked down on for being dregs of the Sun Belt. Lovertich is 20 for 32 for 311 yards w/3 TDs *Had a good game against a last second loss to Tulane in which he had 247 yards w/2 TDs.....

So, by looking at the Box Score, you would have to be blind not to see and question exactly how can I trust Blazers on D when they played C Arkansas and came away with a less than respected 45-35 W?? If you delve into the stats for said game, you need to look at the fact that UAB did some very careless and uncharacteristic turnovers deep in their own territory. One fumble return to the house was a 35 yard scoot. Twice they lost it in own 5 which was converted into points by the Bears. Throwing that game out, we see a much better effort against the Miami Hurricanes (I say this because of the Offensive prowess against Louisville....

Filling in at QB for Blazers is back up QB B Lucero. He takes over for dual threat QB T Johnson III with a major shoulder injury. Lucero most likely won't be called to put the weight of the offense on his shoulders because he will have services of the teams best RB Spencer Brown. Brown has been out due to injury but he is only 3 TDs shy of the school record so I would expect Clark to call his number everytime they get close to end zone. As it stands, Clark has shown that he would rather run than pass, so I expect the clock will run. Lucero is being thrown into the fire with very limited live game experience and only a small handful of passes. The O-Line will open holes for Brown.

HC Clark and Off Coordinator Bryant Vincent will know the Jags because both spent time at So Alabama Coaching. I'm not sure if Hurricane Sally has affected Mobile in Alabama as I write this but So Alabama players (many from Mobile) were visually concerned about their families and friends to the extent that practice was called off on Tuesday and a wait and see approach was in effect.....

What this boils down to is the fact that both teams players might be concerned as both teams have families there. It's one thing to worry about Covid but throw in another life and property disaster and I wonder if both teams are going to be "focused" on this game?? While I like UAB to get the win (beat So Alabama 35-3 last year)...... I feel like the situation merits a decent wager on the Under here.

If you have ever read my shit you know that I look for "intangibles" to cap my games where I look for an advantage. Jags have actually been decent on the Defensive end and haven't been overwhelmed in their first two games. I can visualize a fast moving game. So Alabama hasn't been great on Special Teams and would be surprised to see a broken coverage by UAB. Provided Brown doesn't go crazy and rush for 250 yards, I like the Under here.... Gl.

 

[Keyser Soze]

Great story on the LA Tech game.

Good for your nephew!:00hour

 

[Riff-Raff]

Great story on the LA Tech game.

Good for your nephew!:00hour

Unfortunately, I'm finding the Eye Test much more valuable in attempting to come up with my own numbers. I just feel like I'm missing something too often and with games getting ppd and not knowing who might be suiting up is a dilemma. Usually by this point I would be making a strength chart for FCS teams. I still try to factor in Head to Head, Common Opponents, so called strength of schedule but this fractured scheduling is raising havoc. Stats aren't playing much into my numbers because schedules are unequal. Just so many intangibles involved that presents a huge challenge.

Gluck to you Keyser......

 

[Riff-Raff]

Sorry, no time for write ups, gotta hit the rack and head to Reno in the morning.

BYU -14 over Troy...... 10 u 💪 💪

*My strongest play. I watched the Mormons
crush a disciplined a disciplined Navy team that might be better than what they
showed on Labor Day. What I really was watching was the Defense that only allowed 149 yards to Middies. Troy crushed MTSU 47-14 in their opener, but if you have watched MTSU, you know that isn't much of challenge. My number is -24 and I think the pots light. Reason being is this is first match between these two ever. Troy plays in Sun Belt so NEVER plays at altitude. I think the elevation could be a huge challenge. I also think BYU is pretty damn good.

No Carolina St +6' over Virginia Tech... 10 u

*Another game I'm fairly high on.... Nothing wrong with the Wolfpack Running game as it accounted for 270 yards and fill in QB Bailey Hockman did a great job passing for 191 yards w/1 TD. I hear starter, Devin Leary may be back but it's not my primary reason to bet the Wolfpack....... Everybody knows that this game was originally scheduled for 9-12 but Covid ran thru NC St. The following week was supposed to be opener for Hokies but Covid ran thru them also. This is Hokies 1st game but what I really find troubling is that VT HC Justin Fuentes has made it clear that Hokies will not be playing with a full roster.... He also stated that he wasn't sure if they had enough kids healthy to play........Thats enough of a reason to jump on board the Wolfpack here...

A few more have my interest...

UCF -27' over E Carolina.... 8 u

Kansas St +27' over Okla *Also played over 60 (7 u each)

Kentucky/Auburn Under 49'.......9 u

Florida/Ole Miss Under 57.... 7 u

Iowa St -2 over TCU.... 5 u

Miss St/LSU Under 57'.......8 u

Duke/Virginia under 45'......7 u

FSU/Miami Under 54........10 u *Lots of bad blood between these two...
History says Under

Baylor -17.......9 u

Tenn/So Carolina Under 44......9 u

Gl