Cincinnati/Boston Total

[Smitty]

discussion time... either this is a bad line, or the books have some inside info. which always feels like the more likely of the two options.

ok, the total is 9.5, with the under at -105.

Bello, the Boston starter, after a horrible start to the season, has a respectable 1.22 WHIP in May.

Lively has been fantastic in his two starts for the Reds. Both home games at night, when the ball flies out of that ballpark. But he held both St Louis and NYY to 2 runs and had 8 Ks in each game.

is under 9.5 too easy?

maybe the first 5 under 5 (also at -105) is the better bet?

thoughts?

OH... and LIvely's K total is 3.5. And the over is +100. Again, too easy?

 

[LordofBalls]

Unders are never really a certainty in Fenway lol... that being said, I DID play under 10 earlier, and 9.5 moments ago for less.. I watched Bello pitch v Angels last wk in person..
he throws a 'heavy' ball.. consistent power.. and I don't know much about Lively other than what you've said..
Reds played 3 straight overs w/plenty o'runs, so I'm gonna ride the under tonite as a combination of factors..
GL Smitty!

 

[12wrench]

Yeah Fenway unders are dicey
LOB is right - “heavy” ball from Bello
lively getting Gb too - but as it is with most Gb guys when it’s up it goes - both at a 20% hr/fb rate
so if one guy isn’t getting sink it could get ugly
dont love bos pen either
9.5 seems pretty right on to me
gL

 

[T]

Check the winds for Fenway. I just spent the day in the city I’m 2 miles from Fenway and it’s windy and swirling.

 

[Smitty]

thank you, gentlemen!

Cincinnati's offense is obviously greatly flattered by their home ballpark. and i wonder if maybe the wind was blowing out for those 3 games at wrigley. because, seriously, look at that reds' lineup... it ain't good. top-to-bottom, it's weak. a few solid ballplayers, but nobody who scares you.

12wrench, yeah, neither pen is all that great. that's why i'm starting to lean heavier to under 5 for the first 5.

oh, and of course fenway ain't exactly a pitcher's paradise. in fact, now i'm curious how it compares to great american.

ok, sounds like probably a legit line. think i'll add a little more to my under bets (mostly 1st 5) and use them in some parlays. and fully expect the game to be 4-2 after 2 innings. :facepalm:

let's win some money tonight! :toast:

 

[LordofBalls]

slamboni by Reds no-namer... kickin meself for not playing F5 under... didn't really think of it til I read your last post little bit ago..

now it's a nail-biter the rest of the way w/small margin for errah (Boston accent there lol)

 

[Smitty]

wow, once those bullpens took over...

keep an eye on lively. all 3 of his starts have been solid. can't believe his k total was only 3.5 (he ended with 6). may take a few more starts for the lines to catch up to him. he now has 8, 8, and 6, and all against good offensive teams.

didn't see any of the game, but bello's numbers weren't horrible either. just one ER. however, it took him 97 pitches to get through 4 innings.