Cincy-UNT

[wcb4]

I would love to know why this # has dropped since opening at 8.5. I have Cincy laying no less than 11 to the Mean Green. In Cincy's last six games they are 5-1 SU and ATS with a turnover differential of +17 The only loss was a tough one point defeat at Hawaii two weeks ago. UNT does come in on a six game SU win streak, including a nice win at MTSU, but have struggled all year when losing the turnover battle, which they seem certain to do here against a hot Cincy D. The only thing I can see is that after being good against the run all year, Cincy has given up 200 ypg on the ground the last two games to UAB and East Carolina. That happens to be the strength of the shaky UNT offense. However, with almost two weeks rest I think the Bearcat D reverts to its mid-season form and shuts down the Mean Green rush attack and Cincy comes away with the dd win. Please reply with any thoughts/suggestions. Thanks.

wcb4

 

[cooz3]

its early but i would be catious playing against NORTH TEXAS here...there defense can be stifling and if there running game is effective...that means they will have ball control throughout the game...cinci cant score if they dont have the ball...that is not too say that you are on the wrong side here but I recall last year ..the dogs killed the early bowl games and this looks like one of those games were Cinci looks good ...keep an eye on the line movement here...

GOOD LUCK.....i have not capped this game yet but just an observation...

COOZ

 

[wcb4]

Thanks-

Thanks-

Thank you for the input, cooz. I haven't played anything yet, will probably just wait and see where the line goes from here.

 

[Got5onIt]

UNT has a tough defense but their QB play is VERY inconsistant.
Their team speed is average at best....
Will play Cinci here, looking for the line to drop even more!

 

[gjn23]

yeah the dogs rolled early last year.....what does that have to do with this particular game???

BTW the first bowl game of the year last year??? North Texas a 10-11 (?) dog vs Colo State lost by 26.

This is another one of those matchups (like Ark-UGA) where the dog can really only run on offense and has a "solid" defense. If they fall behind early, how do they ever catch up??? If they get behind by dd points things really start to go bad.

The only way for them to win/cover is to control the running game, give up 0 turnovers, don't fall behind early, and make Cincy go the length of the field for scores.

The athletic edge is in Cincy's favor (by a wide margin) and they have the ability to score on any given snap. N Texas needs to plod their way to a FG/TD.

I see a DD Bearcat win, other dogs out there to play that offer more than this N Texas team.

As for Cincy playing very conservatively on offense???? Why, it's the last game of the year, use all the gadget plays at your disposal, there are no more future opponents scouting you.

 

[mw]

yeah the dogs rolled early last year.....what does that have to do with this particular game???

Plenty. It's a continuation of a longstanding tendency of big dogs to cover in minor bowl games. The big favorite is usually disappointed to be playing such a bunch of losers and is often disinterested.

 

[Valuist]

MW is right but I vividly remember using that logic when North Texas played in this bowl game last year and really got destroyed. The final score didn't look that bad but they were way, way overmatched. I think Cincinnati has a big advantage having played around 10 days ago so there's no unnecessary long break and they should have no problem keeping the good form they've had during this solid ATS run.

 

[mw]

Yeah, it's just 11 days since UC's last game -- that's got to be an advantage. Big dogs are usually the way to go, but I can't get excited about UNT here. I would point out that in addition to being outclassed last year, UNT went a little overboard on the nightlife before the game, and they SWEAR it's not going to happen this year -- for what that's worth. UC, which played its last two bowls in Detroit, seems more likely to be distracted.

 

[Murph29]

Short rest may be disadvantage

Short rest may be disadvantage

Read an article that stated Cinci would have quick week to prepare. They just finished up with finals got down to LA this weekend, have the luncheon to day and play ball tomorrow. Only good thing is they ain't down on bourbon St more than a couple days. I like Cincy to cover this, but I remember how much they struggled vs TCU and NT played with TCU. Cinci did dtruggle, but I think it was due to QB forcing issue whole game until they had to come from behind and he was great. I recall thinking I was dead cuase I cinci and this kid brings em back from nowhere. I think UNT is overmatched athletically, although they may do better than last year vs CSU. Could be similar score as last year if Cinci is fully prepared dspite short rest.

 

[Murph29]

Quote from minter on Espn.com

"Between now and a week from today, we would have gotten in all of our final exams, we'd have gotten in all of our bowl preparation, we would have arrived in New Orleans on Friday late afternoon or evening, gotten acclimated, had a good time, had a great experience, have done all of our practices, our community service project on Sunday, gone to the luncheon on Monday and ready to play the game a week from today," Minter said. "That is scary, folks. It's just hitting me right now as I'm sitting here that we're seven days away from this kickoff."

 

[Box and one]

guys my North Texas is going down.Nice write ups.Lyr NT's defense was rated high.They even had Kassell the star LB of the Sun Belt[POyr on def]and Col St blew them away.
Same here with the bearcats.