Purdue Offense vs. Maryland Defense
Purdue has one of the most potent passing attacks in the nation but there is a good chance the Boilermakers try to establish the ground game early. First off, Maryland has one of the weakest run defenses in the nation and Purdue's spread sets should soften it up. After all, playing three receivers stretches the defensive front horizontally and puts pressure on defensive coordinator Chris Cosh to replace a linebacker with a defensive back. Secondly, QB Curtis Painter has thrown 18 interceptions and he doesn't always show great poise in the face of pressure. That's an even greater concern in this game because OTs Mike Otto and Sean Sester have been hindered by injuries and there are concerns about their ability to hold up in pass protection. Consistently running the ball should greatly reduce the chances of the Boilermakers turning the ball over as a result. Thirdly, RB Kory Sheets runs hard and has the speed to break some long runs when he gets a seam so he is capable of turning an increased workload into excellent production. In addition, Jaycen Taylor provides good depth so Purdue can keep Sheets fresh by spelling him at times.
Purdue vs. Maryland
When: Dec. 29, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Orlando, FL
As mentioned above, Painter can be a liability when he doesn't get enough time to go through his reads and deliver the ball so the Boilermakers' ability to protect him should have a substantial impact on this game. The good news for Purdue is Maryland has struggled to get to opposing quarterbacks and that shouldn't change in this game. While the tackles may not be as effective because of their injuries, the Boilermakers can use a tight end and/or back to help them out if they struggle early. In addition, the experienced interior offensive line should continue to pick up line stunts and blitzes.
If the protection is as sound as expected, Purdue should have success moving the ball though the air. Though DC Josh Wilson has good cover skills, his supporting cast isn't all that strong and it will have a difficult time matching up with a deep receiving corps that includes Dorien Bryant. The Boilermakers take advantage of Bryant's ability to get open quickly and mask his lack of ideal size by frequently lining him up in the slot, which makes it harder to slow him down at the line of scrimmage. On the outside Selwyn Lymon and Greg Orton have the size and body control causes matchup problems. As if that's not enough for the Terrapins to worry about, TE's Dustin Keller and Kyle Adams are quality short-to-intermediate receivers. They should provide Painter with a reliable safety valve when they aren't asked to help out in pass protection.
Maryland Offense vs. Purdue Defense
As porous as Maryland's run defense has been, Purdue's has been even weaker and the Terrapins are at their best when they set up the passing game with the running game. With that in mind, RBs Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore should get plenty of work. Ball and Lattimore don't have elite speed but they are strong interior runners who show good burst though holes. That's not good news for Boilermaker fans because the run defense is at its weakest in the middle where DTs Jermaine Guynn and Ryan Baker are vastly undersized. Guynn and Baker should have a hard time holding their ground at the line of scrimmage and keeping the Terrapins interior offensive linemen off MLB George Hall. As a result, Hall should have to make plays at the second level rather than at the line of scrimmage. In addition, Ball and Lattimore have the balance to consistently pick up yards after contact and one of the reasons the Purdue run defense has been so vulnerable is poor tackling. If the Boilermaker front seven doesn't do a better job of breaking down and wrapping up, the power backs could break some long runs.
QB Sam Hollenbach may be college football's Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. On his good days, he can pick defenses apart and appear unstoppable. At other times, he inexplicably makes critical mistakes and throws the ball up for grabs. Keeping that and the fact that he threw five interceptions in the team's final two games in mind, getting him into an early rhythm should prove important. One of the ways Maryland can help Hollenbach is running some three-step drops early. These conservative plays simplify his reads and freshman WR Darrius Heyward-Bey has a significant size advantage over DCs Royce Adams and Terrell Vinson. Howard-Bey should be able to shield them from the ball when he isn't able to separate from the coverage so Hollenbach should be able to get him the ball quickly. Once Hollenbach gets into the flow of the game the Terrapins can attack vertically and finding a way to neutralize DE Anthony Spencer should be critical when they do. While LOT Stephen Heyer is quick enough to prevent Spencer from turning the corner, he may have problems sustaining his blocks because Spencer is athletic and relentless. Maryland could run some max-protect schemes that use a tight end and/or back to help Heyer consequently.
Special Teams
Purdue's place kicking situation leaves a lot to be desired. Chris Summers has connected on just eight of his 19 field goal attempts and missed his last five field goal attempts. Though Casey Welch connected on his only field goal attempts this year, it came from 18 yards out and that was the first field goal the fifth-year senior made since high school. Summer hasn't gotten great distance on his kickoffs either. Jared Armstrong has good range and he has placed 15 of his 44 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. It's also worth noting that Welch has punted five times this year and placed the ball inside the opponent's 20-yard line once. The Boilermakers' punt return unit has been one of the least productive in the nation but Maryland hasn't covered punts well and Royce Adams has the speed to do some damage when he gets a seam. While the Terrapins have done a better job of covering kickoffs and Purdue's kickoff return unit hasn't fared all that well, Maryland did surrender a 96-yard return for a touchdown earlier this year. If it suffers a similar setback in this game, Dorien Bryant and Kory Sheets have the big-play ability to take advantage.
Maryland's Dan Ennis was a bit inconsistent during the first half of the season but he has connected on his last 12 field goal attempts. Backup Obi Egekeze has good range and 14 of his 41 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. Adam Podlesh has excellent range and he has placed 21 of his 52 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. KOR Josh Wilson can change directions as well as speeds quickly making him a dangerous open field runner and he returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown earlier this year. As a result, a Boilermaker kickoff cover unit that has been among the best in the nation should have to turn in one of its strongest performances of the year. Purdue's punt cover unit, which has been just average, should also have to be at its best. The reason is Danny Oquendo has flashed big-play ability and he is fast enough to return a punt for a touchdown if the coverage isn't sound.
Matchups
? Maryland LOT Stephon Heyer vs. Purdue DE Anthony Spencer
? Purdue RB Kory Sheets vs. Maryland MLB Wesley Jefferson
? Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey vs. Purdue DC Royce Adams
Scouts' Edge
Purdue has had some problems establishing the ground game so Painter has had to shoulder the bulk of the offensive load. That shouldn't be the case against a Maryland team that has problems stopping the run. Sheets should take pressure off Painter and keep him out of a lot of situations with pass-heavy tendencies by consistently picking up three-to-four yards per carry. Painter should have time to go though his reads and keep the Boilermaker pass defense off balance by spreading the ball around to his receivers, backs and tight ends.
Purdue will have a difficult time slowing the Terrapins' formidable one-two punch at running back. Much-like Sheets, Ball and Lattimore will help keep the chains moving by keeping the offensive out of a lot of third-and-long situations. In addition, Hollenbach will turn in his share of big plays. The difference is the Boilermakers should have more success getting to Hollenbach than Maryland has getting to Painter. As a result, Hollenbach will make more critical mistakes and/or errant throws that end drives and open the door for Purdue to eek out the win.
Prediction: Boilermakers 28, Terrapins 24
Purdue has one of the most potent passing attacks in the nation but there is a good chance the Boilermakers try to establish the ground game early. First off, Maryland has one of the weakest run defenses in the nation and Purdue's spread sets should soften it up. After all, playing three receivers stretches the defensive front horizontally and puts pressure on defensive coordinator Chris Cosh to replace a linebacker with a defensive back. Secondly, QB Curtis Painter has thrown 18 interceptions and he doesn't always show great poise in the face of pressure. That's an even greater concern in this game because OTs Mike Otto and Sean Sester have been hindered by injuries and there are concerns about their ability to hold up in pass protection. Consistently running the ball should greatly reduce the chances of the Boilermakers turning the ball over as a result. Thirdly, RB Kory Sheets runs hard and has the speed to break some long runs when he gets a seam so he is capable of turning an increased workload into excellent production. In addition, Jaycen Taylor provides good depth so Purdue can keep Sheets fresh by spelling him at times.
Purdue vs. Maryland
When: Dec. 29, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Orlando, FL
As mentioned above, Painter can be a liability when he doesn't get enough time to go through his reads and deliver the ball so the Boilermakers' ability to protect him should have a substantial impact on this game. The good news for Purdue is Maryland has struggled to get to opposing quarterbacks and that shouldn't change in this game. While the tackles may not be as effective because of their injuries, the Boilermakers can use a tight end and/or back to help them out if they struggle early. In addition, the experienced interior offensive line should continue to pick up line stunts and blitzes.
If the protection is as sound as expected, Purdue should have success moving the ball though the air. Though DC Josh Wilson has good cover skills, his supporting cast isn't all that strong and it will have a difficult time matching up with a deep receiving corps that includes Dorien Bryant. The Boilermakers take advantage of Bryant's ability to get open quickly and mask his lack of ideal size by frequently lining him up in the slot, which makes it harder to slow him down at the line of scrimmage. On the outside Selwyn Lymon and Greg Orton have the size and body control causes matchup problems. As if that's not enough for the Terrapins to worry about, TE's Dustin Keller and Kyle Adams are quality short-to-intermediate receivers. They should provide Painter with a reliable safety valve when they aren't asked to help out in pass protection.
Maryland Offense vs. Purdue Defense
As porous as Maryland's run defense has been, Purdue's has been even weaker and the Terrapins are at their best when they set up the passing game with the running game. With that in mind, RBs Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore should get plenty of work. Ball and Lattimore don't have elite speed but they are strong interior runners who show good burst though holes. That's not good news for Boilermaker fans because the run defense is at its weakest in the middle where DTs Jermaine Guynn and Ryan Baker are vastly undersized. Guynn and Baker should have a hard time holding their ground at the line of scrimmage and keeping the Terrapins interior offensive linemen off MLB George Hall. As a result, Hall should have to make plays at the second level rather than at the line of scrimmage. In addition, Ball and Lattimore have the balance to consistently pick up yards after contact and one of the reasons the Purdue run defense has been so vulnerable is poor tackling. If the Boilermaker front seven doesn't do a better job of breaking down and wrapping up, the power backs could break some long runs.
QB Sam Hollenbach may be college football's Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. On his good days, he can pick defenses apart and appear unstoppable. At other times, he inexplicably makes critical mistakes and throws the ball up for grabs. Keeping that and the fact that he threw five interceptions in the team's final two games in mind, getting him into an early rhythm should prove important. One of the ways Maryland can help Hollenbach is running some three-step drops early. These conservative plays simplify his reads and freshman WR Darrius Heyward-Bey has a significant size advantage over DCs Royce Adams and Terrell Vinson. Howard-Bey should be able to shield them from the ball when he isn't able to separate from the coverage so Hollenbach should be able to get him the ball quickly. Once Hollenbach gets into the flow of the game the Terrapins can attack vertically and finding a way to neutralize DE Anthony Spencer should be critical when they do. While LOT Stephen Heyer is quick enough to prevent Spencer from turning the corner, he may have problems sustaining his blocks because Spencer is athletic and relentless. Maryland could run some max-protect schemes that use a tight end and/or back to help Heyer consequently.
Special Teams
Purdue's place kicking situation leaves a lot to be desired. Chris Summers has connected on just eight of his 19 field goal attempts and missed his last five field goal attempts. Though Casey Welch connected on his only field goal attempts this year, it came from 18 yards out and that was the first field goal the fifth-year senior made since high school. Summer hasn't gotten great distance on his kickoffs either. Jared Armstrong has good range and he has placed 15 of his 44 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. It's also worth noting that Welch has punted five times this year and placed the ball inside the opponent's 20-yard line once. The Boilermakers' punt return unit has been one of the least productive in the nation but Maryland hasn't covered punts well and Royce Adams has the speed to do some damage when he gets a seam. While the Terrapins have done a better job of covering kickoffs and Purdue's kickoff return unit hasn't fared all that well, Maryland did surrender a 96-yard return for a touchdown earlier this year. If it suffers a similar setback in this game, Dorien Bryant and Kory Sheets have the big-play ability to take advantage.
Maryland's Dan Ennis was a bit inconsistent during the first half of the season but he has connected on his last 12 field goal attempts. Backup Obi Egekeze has good range and 14 of his 41 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. Adam Podlesh has excellent range and he has placed 21 of his 52 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. KOR Josh Wilson can change directions as well as speeds quickly making him a dangerous open field runner and he returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown earlier this year. As a result, a Boilermaker kickoff cover unit that has been among the best in the nation should have to turn in one of its strongest performances of the year. Purdue's punt cover unit, which has been just average, should also have to be at its best. The reason is Danny Oquendo has flashed big-play ability and he is fast enough to return a punt for a touchdown if the coverage isn't sound.
Matchups
? Maryland LOT Stephon Heyer vs. Purdue DE Anthony Spencer
? Purdue RB Kory Sheets vs. Maryland MLB Wesley Jefferson
? Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey vs. Purdue DC Royce Adams
Scouts' Edge
Purdue has had some problems establishing the ground game so Painter has had to shoulder the bulk of the offensive load. That shouldn't be the case against a Maryland team that has problems stopping the run. Sheets should take pressure off Painter and keep him out of a lot of situations with pass-heavy tendencies by consistently picking up three-to-four yards per carry. Painter should have time to go though his reads and keep the Boilermaker pass defense off balance by spreading the ball around to his receivers, backs and tight ends.
Purdue will have a difficult time slowing the Terrapins' formidable one-two punch at running back. Much-like Sheets, Ball and Lattimore will help keep the chains moving by keeping the offensive out of a lot of third-and-long situations. In addition, Hollenbach will turn in his share of big plays. The difference is the Boilermakers should have more success getting to Hollenbach than Maryland has getting to Painter. As a result, Hollenbach will make more critical mistakes and/or errant throws that end drives and open the door for Purdue to eek out the win.
Prediction: Boilermakers 28, Terrapins 24
