Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[Cnotes53]

SuperContest Picks - Week 9
November 4, 2017


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8


Week 9


1) Indianapolis +13 (1,675)
2) L.A. Rams -3.5 (944)
3) Dallas +1 (824)
4) Denver +8.5 (766)
5) Atlanta +1 (715)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 9 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Buffalo (-3) 283 N.Y. Jets (+3) 174
Denver (+8.5) 766 Philadelphia (-8.5) 420
L.A. Rams (-3.5) 944 N.Y. Giants (+3.5) 332
Tampa Bay (+7) 517 New Orleans (-7) 608
Cincinnati (+5) 423 Jacksonville (-5) 604
Atlanta (+1) 715 Carolina (-1) 443
Indianapolis (+13) 1675 Houston (-13) 70
Baltimore (+5) 471 Tennessee (-5) 379
Arizona (-2) 338 San Francisco (+2) 342
Washington (+7) 241 Seattle (-7) 627
Kansas City (-1) 522 Dallas (+1) 824
Oakland (-3) 561 Miami (+3) 382
Detroit (-2.5) 483 Green Bay (+2.5) 426


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 2-3 12-18 40%
7 0-5 12-23 34%
8 2-3 14-26 35%
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9
Monty Andrews

Last season, the Eagles managed a touchdown on less than 50 percent of their red-zone visits; fast-forward to 2017, and they come into Week 9 ranked second in red-zone touchdown rate at 68 percent.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 39.5)

Bengals QB protection issues vs. Jaguars' sack-happy defense

The Jacksonville Jaguars haven't been the most consistent team in football this season, but they remain very much in the hunt for the AFC South title as they host the Cincinnati Bengals. Jacksonville's four victories have come by at least 21 points, and they're coming off a much-needed bye week following a 27-0 rout of Indianapolis a week earlier. Yet, as impressive as the Jaguars offense has been at times, it's the defense - which has a sizeable advantage this week - that could lead this team to a division crown.

The Bengals' offensive line has struggled to protect quarterback Andy Dalton so far this season, giving up sacks on better than nine percent of dropbacks - the fourth-worst rate in the league. Cincinnati has surrendered 22 total sacks through its first seven games, while their 48 passes defended rank behind only the Arizona Cardinals. The Bengals allowed a sack on just 6.8 percent of their dropbacks last season, and their eight interceptions thrown match their entire 2016 total.

Dalton isn't likely to get much relief this weekend against a Jaguars pass rush considered one of the best in the sport. In addition to recording four defensive touchdowns, 10 interceptions and nine forced fumbles, Jacksonville leads the NFL with a whopping 33 sacks - six more than the second-place Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars have produced a sack on 12.3 percent of opposing dropbacks so far this season, miles ahead of the 5.7-percent rate they recorded last season.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+3.5, 42)

Rams' drive-extension prowess vs. Giants' third-down doldrums

The Rams carry a two-game winning streak into Sunday afternoon's encounter with a Giants team that might already be looking toward next season. Los Angeles is coming off a bye following Week 7's 33-0 dismantling of the division-rival Arizona Cardinals, and still boasts one of the league's top offenses as we near the midway point of the season. One of the main reasons: An elite third-down offensive showing that runs in stark contrast to the Giants' inability to sustain drives.

Led by an emerging star in quarterback Jared Goff, the Rams have been sensational at keeping the football, converting nearly 49 percent of their third-down opportunities - the best rate in the NFL. Los Angeles went a stunning 13-for-19 on third downs in the one-sided win over the Cardinals, allowing it to retain possession for more than 39 minutes. It's a complete 180-degree turn for the Rams, who finished dead last in 2016 by converting just 31 percent of their third-down chances.

The Giants can sympathize with last year's version of the Rams - in more ways than one. With just one win in its first seven games, New York is off to a nightmare start - and its third-down troubles are a part of that. The Giants have earned a first down or points on just 32.6 percent of their third downs; only San Francisco, Miami and Cleveland have been less prolific. And with Eli Manning down to just a few worthwhile offensive options, that number could dip even further.

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 44)

Broncos' red-zone struggles vs. Eagles' relentless offense

You can't often make the case that a Week 7 game is "must-win", but the Broncos can ill afford to risk falling another game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West as they visit the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles. Denver comes into the week having lost three in a row, and will need to improve its red zone offense if it has any hope of overtaking the Chiefs atop the division. And even that might not matter against an Eagles team that has been one of the NFL's most dangerous inside its opponents' 20-yard line.

The Broncos are 2 1/2 games back of Kansas City following Monday's 29-19 loss to the Chiefs, and their red-zone offense is at least partly to blame for Denver's recent struggles. The Broncos converted 1-of-3 red-zone trips into touchdowns in the loss to Kansas City, and has scored TDs from inside the opponents' 20-yard line at a 44-percent rate; only Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Arizona have been less prolific in the red zone.

Meanwhile, what a difference a year has made in Philadelphia. Last season, the Eagles managed a touchdown on less than 50 percent of their red-zone visits; fast-forward to 2017, and they come into Week 9 ranked second in red-zone touchdown rate at 68 percent. And there's a good chance of that trend continuing, given that the Eagles have converted on 87.5 percent of red-zone trips over their past three games, and are scoring red-zone touchdowns at a 76.9-percent pace at home.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 45)

Redskins' dynamite discipline vs. Seahawks' flag follies

The Washington Redskins have a difficult task ahead of them as they venture to hostile CenturyLink Field for an NFC encounter with the Seattle Seahawks. Washington has just one win over its first three road games, and adding to that total will be tough against a Seattle team that has won each of its first three home games. But Washington might have an equalizer: A pattern of disciplined play that could come in handy against the penalty-happy Seahawks.

Washington has been on its best behavior through seven games, incurring just 38 total penalties for a league-low 291 yards against. The Redskins have been particularly disciplined when they have the ball, picking up as scant 13 offensive penalties for 105 yards. Even in Sunday's 33-19 home defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, Washington was charged with just five penalties for 32 yards while drawing eight flags for 89 yards against the visitors.

The Seahawks are running neck-and-neck with the Rams for NFC West supremacy, but they'll need to work on their discipline moving forward. Seattle has been flagged an NFL-high 66 times on the season, while the 534 total yards they've surrendered via penalty are sixth-most in the league. The Seahawks also rank last overall in penalty flag differential (minus-22) and penalty yard differential (minus-156). If that trend continues, Washington could make a game of it.

 

[Cnotes53]

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Sunday, November 5

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DENVER (3 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 1) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (5 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 6) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 179-227 ATS (-70.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 179-227 ATS (-70.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 128-179 ATS (-68.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 36-61 ATS (-31.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 2) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 62-36 ATS (+22.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (3 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (4 - 3) at CAROLINA (5 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 6) at HOUSTON (3 - 4) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 4) at TENNESSEE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 8) - 11/5/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (3 - 4) at SEATTLE (5 - 2) - 11/5/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 42-66 ATS (-30.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 2) at DALLAS (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (3 - 5) at MIAMI (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
MIAMI is 41-17 ATS (+22.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 6

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DETROIT (3 - 4) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 183-129 ATS (+41.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday, November 5

INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 12 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 10 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

ATLANTA @ CAROLINA
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Atlanta's last 21 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing Atlanta

CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games

LA RAMS @ NY GIANTS
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
NY Giants is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams

DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
San Francisco is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Arizona

WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington

KANSAS CITY @ DALLAS
Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

OAKLAND @ MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Oakland


Monday, November 6

DETROIT @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 9 approaching??.

? Carolina covered twice in its last ten home games.

? Buffalo is 5-1-1 vs spread in its last seven games.

? Colts are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a divisional road underdog.

? Bengals covered once in last six tries as a road underdog.

? Arizona is 4-14 vs spread in its last 18 games.

? Denver is 9-17 as a non-divisional road underdog.

***********************

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 9 approaching??.

? Jets are 17-7 vs spread in last 24 games as a home underdog.

? Chiefs are 10-3 vs spread in their last 13 games.

? Oakland covered once in its last six games.

? 49ers covered nine of their last 11 divisional games.

? Houston is 10-3-1 in last 14 games as a home favorite.

? Eagles covered nine of their last eleven games.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday's game
Bills (5-2) @ Jets (3-5)? Buffalo is +14 in turnovers; they?ve had 3+ takeaways in their last four games. Bills are 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by 6 or less points. Jets lost last three games by 7-3-5 points; they were outscored 39-13 in 2nd half of those games. Last time Jets trailed at halftime was Week 2. Gang Green is 3-0 allowing 20 or less points, 0-5 when they allow more than 20 points. Buffalo (-8) beat Jets 21-12 in season opener, outrushing Jets 190-38, converting 8-17 on 3rd down; Bills are 6-2 in last eight series games, but lost five of last seven visits here. Three of last four Jet games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-7 vs spread. Since 2014, Buffalo is 1-5-1 vs spread as a road favorite.

Sunday's games
Broncos (3-3) @ Eagles (7-1)? Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night- this is their third week in row on road. Denver lost its last three games, scoring 10-0-3 points; they?re 0-3 on road, losing by 10-21-10 points. In their last four games, Broncos scored xx points on xx red zone drives- their WR?s killed them in KC with dropped balls. Philly won last six games, covered last five; they?re 3-1 vs spread as home favorites, winning home games by 3-27-10-23 points. Home side won last six series games; Denver won last meeting 52-20 in ?13. Broncos lost five of six visits to Philly, with only win in ?86. Over is 4-2 in last six Eagle games. NFC East teams are 2-5 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites; AFC West underdogs are 4-2.

Rams (5-2) @ Giants (1-6)? Rams won four of their last five games; they?re 3-0 in true road games, winning by 2-5-10 points, winning at SF-Dallas-Jax. Giants are 0-3 at home, scoring 10-22-7 points in losses to Lions-Chargers-Seattle. NY is 0-3 in games decided by 5 or less points. Both teams coming off their bye; Giants won seven games in a row against the Rams- they won 17-10 in London LY. Giants? last loss in series was 15-14 in St Louis in ?01. Giants are 7-2 in last nine post-bye games; Rams are 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 post-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Ram games. NFC West teams are 7-12 vs spread outside their division; NFC East teams are 11-9, 3-6 at home.

Buccaneers (2-5) @ Saints (5-2)? New Orleans won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they?re 2-1 at home this year, winning by 14-8 points with loss to Patriots. In three games since their bye, NO ran ball for average of 151.7 ypg, taking heat off defense/Brees. Tampa Bay lost its last four games; they?re 0-3 on road, losing by 17-5-3 points, allowing 34 ppg on road- they?re 2-5 and were favored in 5 of the 7 games. Last two games, Bucs? opponents converted 18 of 33 3rd down plays. Saints are 9-2 in last 11 games with Tampa, winning five of last six meetings played here. Four of last five Saint games stayed under total; four of Bucs? last six games went over. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-10-2 vs spread.

Bengals (3-4) @ Jaguars (4-3)? Jax is 4-3 but just 1-2 at home; they haven?t allowed 2nd half TD in their last three games (33-6). Jaguars ran ball for 169-188 yards in last two games; check status on Fournette?s ankle. Jags are 23-42 on 3rd down in last three games. Bengals won three of last four games after an 0-3 start; they?re 1-2 on road, losing by 3 at Green Bay, 15 at Pitt- they won at Cleveland. Cincy is -10 already in turnovers; they haven?t been plus in TO?s in any game this season. Bengals won last four series games, last three all by 10+ points; they?re 3-7 in Jacksonville, winning 30-20/27-10 in last two visits. Jaguars are 6-1 vs spread (4-3 SU) in last seven post-bye games. Four of last six Jaguar games went over total.

Falcons (4-3) @ Panthers (5-3)? This is 3rd week in row on road for Falcons, historical soft spot for NFL teams. Atlanta snapped 3-game skid with rainy win in New Jersey LW; they?re 3-1 on road, with only loss 23-7 in Foxboro- they won at Bears-Lions-Jets. Carolina?s defense hasn?t allowed a TD in its last two games, but their offense has only scored two TD?s, and gave up two in 17-3 loss at Chicago. Panthers are 1-2 at home, with only win 9-3 over Buffalo; they?re -8 in turnovers in three losses, +1 in their wins. Panthers averaged less than 5 yards/pass attempt in each of last 3 games. Atlanta won its last three games with Carolina by 7-15-17 points; they hammered Panthers twice LY, 48-33/33-16. Teams are 7-7 in last 14 series games played here.

Colts (2-6) @ Texans (3-4)? Rookie QB Watson is tearing NFL apart; Texans scored 33+ points in their last five games, scoring 21 TD?s on their last 60 drives. Six of their last 11 TD plays were 20+ yards. Houston is 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Colts lost last three games despite a +3 TO ratio in those games- they?re 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 37-28-1-14 points. Indy allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in four of their last five games, but their offense has also given up five TD?s to opposing defenses this year. Houston won three of last four series games, but Colts won three of last four visits here, albeit with Luck at QB. Last five Houston games went over, as did five of last six Indy games.

Ravens (4-4) @ Titans (4-3)? Titans are off a bye, Ravens are off a Thursday win, so two rested teams here. Baltimore allowed 17 or less points in its four wins, with a +10 turnover ratio- they allowed 24+ in their losses, with a -5 turnover ratio. Ravens are 2-1 in true road games, with only loss 24-16 in Minnesota- they won at Cincy/Oakland. Tennessee scored only six TD?s on 46 drives in their last four games, but they won last two games, holding Colts/Browns to one TD on 19 drives. Titans are 2-1 at home- they scored 33+ points in 3 of their 4 wins- they?re 1-3 when scoring less than 33, with a 12-9 win over the Browns. Tennessee is 2-5 in its last seven post-bye tilts. Teams split last eight series games; their last meeting was in 2014. AFC South non-divisional hone teams are 5-3 vs spread. Only one Raven game was decided by less than 8 points.

Cardinals (3-4) @ 49ers (0-8)? Stanton gets his first start of year at QB for Arizona; he is 8-5 as an NFL starter, 6-3 with Redbirds. Cardinals won five games in a row vs 49ers; they beat SF 18-15 (-6.5) in OT in first meeting in Week 4, scoring only TD of game on pass to Fitzgerald in last minute of OT. Arizona won 19-13/33-21 in last two visits here. 49ers traded for Garoppolo Monday but he won?t be ready here; 49ers lost last two games by combined 73-20; they?re 5-3 vs spread, 1-2 as a home underdog this year, with home losses by 20-2-30 points. Arizona won three of last four post-bye games. Over is 3-1 in 49ers? last four games, under is 5-1 in Arizona?s last six games. Arizona allowed 30+ points in its last three games.

Redskins (3-4) @ Seahawks (5-2)? 8 of 15 TD?s Seattle allowed this year came on plays of 20+ yards; they?re susceptible to big plays, as Texans showed Sunday, but they?ve also won their last four games (3-1 vs spread). Only 5 of 17 Redskin TD?s have been on plays of 20+ yards. Washington had three new starters on OL last week; they?re 1-2 on road, losing by 9 in KC, 10 in Philly- this is their first game on artificial turf this year. Seahawks added LT Brown in a trade Monday; they?re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-28-3 points. Seattle ran ball for just 66.3 ypg in last three games. Seattle won four of last six series games; three of those four wins were playoff games. Redskins won last two visits here, but last one was in 2011.

Chiefs (5-2) @ Cowboys (4-3)? Ezekiel Elliott?s 6-game suspension starts here; how does that change the Dallas offense? Chiefs won division game Monday night; they?re 3-1 on road, losing 31-30 at Oakland- they won at Foxboro-Chargers-Houston, scoring 34.5 ppg. Dallas scored 40-33 points in winning both its game since their bye- they allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses, are 4-0 when allowing less than 35 points. Over is 5-1-2 in Chief games, 4-0 in Cowboys? last four games. Chiefs franchise started out as the Dallas Texans in 1960; they?re 1-4 at the Cowboys, with only win in ?75- their last visit here was in ?05. NFC East teams are 3-6 vs spread at home when they venture outside the division.

Raiders (3-5) @ Dolphins (4-3)? Oakland lost five of last six games, losing last three games on road, by 17-6-20 points. Raiders scored 26+ points in their wins, 17 or less in their five losses. Miami is 4-3, but they?ve scored total of six points in losses by 14-20-40 points. Dolphins played on Thursday LW, so they?ve got time to rest. Cutler is expected back at QB here; Miami is 2-0 at home, with home wins by 6-3 over Titans/Jets, giving up 10-28 points. Miami won five in row, 8 of last 9 meetings with Oakland; their last meeting was in London in ?14. Raiders lost 7 of last 8 visits here- their last win in Miami was in ?07. Under is 5-2 in Dolphin games, 1-3 in last four Oakland games. AFC East teams are 12-7-1 vs spread outside their division.

Monday's game
Lions (3-4) @ Packers (4-3)? Detroit is a frustrating team; they didn?t score TD LW vs Steelers, week after their OFFENSE gave up three TD?s in a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Lions lost 22 of last 23 visits to Lambeau Field, but door in ajar here with Rodgers injured. Last time Detroit was favored in Green Bay? 2011, when Rodgers was also hurt? Pack still won, 45-41 on a frigid day. Green Bay scored 10-17 points in losing last two games, averaging 3.8/3.0 yds/pass attempt, as Rodgers? absence obviously hurts. Lions gained 482 yards LW but didn?t score a TD- they scored nine points on five red zone drives, a putrid performance- Detroit lost its last three games, are 2-1 on road. Packers were outscored 28-3 in second half of their last two games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 9 NFL lines are going to move

The Los Angeles Rams are allowing just 11 points per game over their last three contests and are coming off a shutout win over the Arizona Cardinals.

Game to bet on now

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)

The Jags have quietly and efficiently built the best defense in the league. They?re the best against the pass, first in QB sacks, tops in points allowed and sixth in total yards allowed.

They do give up some yards on the ground, and that?s where the 3-5 Bengals will have to attack in they want to hang in and remain viable in the AFC North.

Oddly, the Jags seem to be worse (1-2) at home than they are on the road (3-1), but that doesn?t mean much considering the small sample size.

Jacksonville needs to keep pace with Tennessee, which has won two straight and appears to be getting better. There?s an opportunity to bet both sides and win both ways (also known as middle) with the line opening at -2 in some books and moving to -4 in others.

Game to wait on

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (+2.5)

The Dolphins have been outscored by an average of nearly nine points a game but somehow have managed to stay afloat in a competitive AFC East division.

Much of their ugly point differential is attributable to that 40-0 turd they dropped at Baltimore, but many teams struggle playing on Thursday night.

At any rate, Miami will benefit from a few extra days of rest and will be facing Raiders team that will be making its second straight cross-country trip to the East Coast.

The problem is at quarterback, where Jay Cutler has been out with a rib injury. He?ll play if he can, but if he can?t go, then Matt Moore (zero TDs, two INTs vs. the Ravens) will be thrown to the wolves again.

It might be a good idea to hang on a bit, as this game might be a PK if there is good news on Cutler.

Total to watch

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (43.5)

Can it get any worse for the Giants? They were out of the playoffs before September was over, their best offensive player (Odell Beckham Jr.) is done for the year and there is talk that it might be time to sit down Eli Manning and get a look at a backup who might be competing for the No. 1 job when training camp starts next summer.

Yikes.

The Giants are one of six teams averaging fewer than 300 total years a game, and appear to be catching the Rams at a bad time. LA is allowing just 11 points per game over its last three contests and is coming off a shutout win over the Cardinals.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday, November 5

Denver @ Philadelphia

Game 451-452
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
130.414
Philadelphia
136.531
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 6
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 9
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+9); Over

LA Rams @ NY Giants

Game 453-454
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
135.530
NY Giants
134.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Game 455-456
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
132.667
New Orleans
137.064
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+7); Under

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville

Game 457-458
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
129.765
Jacksonville
137.918
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 8
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 4 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-4 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Carolina

Game 459-460
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.214
Carolina
130.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 6
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
Pick
44
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
Under

Indianapolis @ Houston

Game 461-462
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
120.260
Houston
140.952
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 20 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 13
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-13); Over

Baltimore @ Tennessee

Game 463-464
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
127.796
Tennessee
134.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 6 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-3); Over

Arizona @ San Francisco

Game 465-466
November 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
122.638
San Francisco
122.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
Even
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2 1/2); Over

Washington @ Seattle

Game 467-468
November 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
134.374
Seattle
135.883
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 7 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7 1/2); Over

Kansas City @ Dallas

Game 469-470
November 5, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
140.489
Dallas
133.073
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
Pick
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
Over

Oakland @ Miami

Game 471-472
November 5, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
130.579
Miami
121.724
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 9
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-3); Over


Monday, November 6

Detroit @ Green Bay

Game 473-474
November 6, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
137.795
Green Bay
130.270
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 7 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 2 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-2 1/2); Over

 

[Cnotes53]

Best and worst bets at the halfway mark of the NFL season
Ashton Grewal

Do you remember when the Oakland Raiders were getting all sorts of Super Bowl buzz back in early September before the start of the regular season? A lot of bettors would like a do over on that one.

The halfway point of the NFL season is here and it?s a good time to reflect on the best and worst bets after the first eight weeks? worth of action on the gridiron.

Best ATS teams

Buffalo Bills (5-1-1 ATS)

Big Cat and PFT remind us every week that nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Coincidentally, no one covers the spread like the Bills either. Buffalo is 5-1-1 against the spread and has won outright as an underdog three times already this year.

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2 ATS)

When they?re not standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona, the Eagles are taking it to the limit in the NFC East. Philly is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS with wins over the Panthers, Chargers and Redskins. The Eagles are averaging 29 points per game and lead in the league in point differential at + 76.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-2 ATS)

The Chiefs traded up in the first round of the draft last spring to select a guy they thought would be replacing Alex Smith under center. Smith responded by playing the best half season of his pro career.

Smith has shed the moniker of Captain Checkdown with 2181 passing yards and a league-high 8.42 yards per passing attempt.

Kansas City upset the Patriots at Gillette Stadium as an 8-point underdog on the Thursday season kickoff game and clipped the Eagles 27-20 in Week 2. The Chiefs are 6-2 straight up and against the spread heading into this weekend?s game against the Cowboys.

Worst ATS Team

Arizona Cardinals (1-6 ATS)

Zona?s season was probably toast the minute David Johnson?s wrist exploded Week 1 against the Detroit Lions. The Cardinals stand at 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS and are fresh off a 33-0 shutout loss to the Rams.

Arizona heads into the second half of the season with a 33-year-old career backup at quarterback (Drew Stanton), a 34-year-old as its leading receiver (Larry Fitzgerald) and a 32-year-old who?s been dumped by two teams in less than a year (Adrian Peterson) as its No. 1 running back.

Best Over Team

Houston Texans (Over 5-2)

The Chiefs are actually the best over team through eight weeks (Over is 6-2 in their games), but we already talked about them in the best ATS teams section.

The Texans metamorphosis needs to be discussed here. Houston?s identity used to be about its elite defense and borderline unwatchable offense. The script has been flipped ever since Deshaun Watson became the starting quarterback. The Texans are averaging 34.6 points per game since rookie took over and they?re giving up 30 points per game over their last five games.

The over is 5-0 in Houston?s last five games and 5-2 on the season.

Best Under Team

Pittsburgh Steelers (Under 1-7)

The Steelers scored an average of 2.8 touchdowns per game in 2016 and this year they?re finding the end zone only twice (2.0) a game. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had 29 TD passes in 14 games last season and has only 10 (with nine interceptions) through eight games this year.

The defense in Pittsburgh is rock solid helping the Steelers finish under the total in seven of their eight contests.

Season Win Total Review

Vegas and offshore sportsbooks do us the courtesy of setting over/under lines on each NFL team?s season wins total for the upcoming season. Everyone pounces on these lines and bets them for some early NFL action.

No Surprises Here

The Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers were both pegged with 4.5 season win totals and both find teams are still in search of their first win of the campaign.

Did Not See That Coming

The Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills have surprised a lot of casual and dedicated NFL bettors this year. The Rams are one victory formation away from surpassing their 5.5 season win total while the Bills are keeping pace with the Patriots in the AFC East and need just two more wins to top their preseason projection according to Vegas.

Should Have Seen That Coming

The 2016 Oakland Raiders were extremely fortunate to reach 12 wins on the season. We wrote a few articles saying the bubble was bound to burst on this overachieving side in the 2017 campaign, but the Raiders were one of the most popular offseason Super Bowl bets and people were gladly backing the Silver and Black to go over their 9.5 season win total.

Oakland is dead last in the AFC West and has fewer wins than the New York Jets after the first eight weeks of the season. Yikes.

Season Long Trends

Underdogs are barking this season despite the recent hot streak for chalk. Teams getting points were 53-35-1 against the spread after Week 6, but faves struck back in big way going 18-8-2 ATS over the last two weeks. Underdogs are still 61-53-3 ATS (53.5% win rate) on the year.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Week 9
November 4, 2017

The ‘over’ produced an 8-5 mark last week and outside of one result, it’s fair to say the outcomes were clear-cut. For those bettors on the ‘under’ in the Redskins-Cowboys (46 ?) game, please accept our apologies. The late pick-six touchdown is never tough to stomach but for the individuals who cashed Dallas-Over tickets, congrats! Through eight weeks of the NFL regular season, the ‘over’ holds a 61-57-1 record.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 9 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Atlanta at Carolina: 44 to 42 ?
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: 50 to 52
Indianapolis at Houston: 48 to 46 (Watson Injury)
Kansas City at Dallas: 48 ? to 53 ?

Dealing with the status of players has been unpredictable this season and we’re dealing with more this weekend. The recent injury to Houston quarterback DeShaun Watson had books scrambling on Thursday for their matchup at home to Indianapolis. Despite the rookie’s absence, the total didn’t take that much of a fall.

“Certainly, Indy’s poor defense is always a factor in the total, but it’s not as if this offense is just humming along. And now you’ve got the Tom Savage situation, which certainly handicaps what Houston can do offensively. I do think this number will come down some before kickoff, but 45 might be the floor,” said Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

The other late-breaking news this week came out of Dallas on Friday morning with running back Ezekiel Elliott being allowed to play after he was expected to start serving his six-game suspension.

Cooley added, “I think this is the biggest total move of the NFL season, and it’s shocking to see a number move this much at this point of the season. Both the sharps and squares have aligned, and it’s created a huge liability. I know (or hope) we’ll see this come back down at some point, but it won’t be enough to offset the exposure we have.”

Dallas has watched the ‘over’ cash in its last four games and the club is averaging 33.5 points per game during this span. Kansas City has been a solid ‘over’ bet (5-2-1) this season but make a note that all of the tickets going to the high side took place in games under the lights. This will be the highest total posted in a Chiefs game this season.

Visiting High

Last week, I touched on some home-away trends and Week 9 will feature four teams taking perfect ‘over’ records on the road.

Colts (4-0) – Indy visits Houston. The Colts own the worst scoring defense (30.8 PPG) in the league and the units has been worse on the road (38 PPG).

Rams (3-0) – Los Angeles visits the N.Y. Giants. The Rams are averaging 34.3 PPG outside of California and they posted 33 in a home game played overseas from London.

Redskins (3-0) – Washington visits Seattle. The Redskins are averaging 23.3 PPG in their last three road games vs. teams from the AFC and NFC West Divisions, which includes a 27-point effort at the Rams in Week 2.

Buccaneers (3-0) – Tampa Bay visits New Orleans. The Bucs scoring defense (34 PPG) is the second worst on the road and they are dead last in yards per play allowed (6.9) away from home.

Road System

I touched on a solid total angle that I’ve been following for seasons in Week 6 and it connected. It’s live again in Week 9 with not one but two matchups. What’s the system?

Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

In Week 6, San Francisco was playing its third straight road game when it visited Washington. The Redskins won 26-24 and the ‘over’ (46 ?) connected thanks to a late surge. A win is a win, right?

Including that result, this system has watched the ‘over’ go 42-20 (68%) the last 12 seasons.

The two matchups that fit this week are listed below:

Denver at Philadelphia
Atlanta at Carolina

Early Vacation?

I really enjoy following seasonal total trends and my colleague Matt found a great one to follow this year which focuses on games with teams playing before their ‘bye’ week. Through eight weeks, 22 teams have had their bye in the NFL regular season.

Based on our numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 16-6 (73%) in their games before the bye. Keep in mind that we’re double-counting results, so the Patriots-Chargers ‘under’ last week resulted in a 2-0 mark to the low side since both teams fit the system. At the same time, the ‘over’ result in London last Sunday between the Browns and Vikings was a 2-0 ‘over’ result. The other games that went ‘under’ last week were never in doubt as the Bears and Steelers helped the cause. For those of you a little confused, all six of those teams just mentioned are not playing in Week 9.

The four games that would fit this angle in Week 9 would include matchups featuring Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia and Baltimore since they’re all on ‘bye’ in Week 10.

For those keeping track, teams playing with rest this season have watched the ‘over’ go 6-4 in their following games. We have six teams coming off the bye this week - Green Bay, Tennessee, L.A. Rams, N.Y. Giants, Arizona and Jacksonville.

Divisional Contests

The ‘over’ went 2-1 in these head-to-head matchups last week and the ‘under’ is 23-11 overall this season in divisional contests. The two games that went high were certainly helped with interceptions, especially the Cowboys-Redskins outcome. In last week’s piece, I mentioned that you might want to look at a vice versa angle in these divisional rematch games. The opposite outcome started out 2-0 and this past Thursday’s game between the Jets and Bills went ‘over’ after the pair played to the ‘under’ in their first meeting.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and the two ‘over’ tickets occurred at the Superdome. Tampa Bay has had success playing in the ‘Big Easy’ with the offense posting 24, 26 and 31 points in their last three visits. I don’t want to discredit the Saints defense (20.7 PPG) but they’ve only faced two legit quarterbacks this season (Brady, Stafford). In those games, New Orleans gave up 36 and 38 points. Bucs QB Jameis Winston isn’t in that class but he’s certainly better than Brett Hundley and Mitch Trubisky. New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 at home this season, with the lone ‘under’ hitting last Sunday versus the aforementioned rookie on the Bears.

Atlanta at Carolina: The ‘over’ went 2-0 between the pair last season as the Falcons torched the Panthers for 33 and 48 points. From what we’ve seen from both teams offensively this season, it’s hard to imagine either club getting in that neighborhood on Sunday. The oddsmakers agree and this is the lowest total (42 ?) between the pair since they met in 2011 when Jimmy Clausen was playing QB for Carolina.

Indianapolis at Houston: Even though this game will be played with backup QBs on the field, the recent trend in this series could have you leaning high. Since 2013, the total has gone 4-4 between the pair but the ‘over’ is 4-0 in Houston while the ‘under’ has produced a 4-0 mark in the games play at Indianapolis.

Arizona at San Francisco: This is the only rematch game this week and like the matchup above, it’s featuring a pair of backup QBs (Drew Stanton vs. C.J. Beathard). Arizona defeated San Francisco 18-15 in Week 4 at home and the ‘under’ (43 ?) connected even though there were 10 scores (9 FGs, 1 TD) in the game. The 49ers have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 at Levi’s Stadium and they’ve helped those results with the worst scoring defense at home (34.7 PPG) this season.

Detroit at Green Bay: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 2-1 in Week 8 and the high side has gone 16-10 (62%) this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Bills and Jets. Make a note that TNF (4-0) and MNF (3-0) have been streaking high lately, while the SNF (3-0) is on a run to the low side.

Oakland at Miami: Sticking with the ‘under’ trend just mentioned on Sunday Night, I believe that could be a look again or you might want to pass. The Raiders have been very hard to figure out offensively this season and they’ve scored 10, 10 and 14 in their last three road games. Even worse offensively is Miami, who is ranked last in scoring (13.1), total yards (252.4) and yards per play (4.1). The defense was playing great, but the Dolphins have surrendered 28 and 40 the past two weeks.

Detroit at Green Bay: This is another game where you might want to take the night off, find something else to do productively for three hours. For what it’s worth, the ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run in this series but that was with Aaron Rodgers at QB for Green Bay. Make a note that he accounted for 11 total TDs in those games. The Lions defense looked good in their 20-15 loss at home last Sunday to Pittsburgh and the unit has been better on the road this season. If you’re looking for an angle, Green Bay playing off rest has been a great wager. Since Mike McCarthy became the Packers head coach in 2006, Green Bay has gone 9-2 off the bye and the ‘under’ has gone 8-3 in those games.

Fearless Predictions

Even though I was on the wrong side of the Texans-Seahawks shootout, I could’ve went 3-1 with a couple breaks but in hindsight I could’ve easily been 0-4. The bankroll ($440) is approaching a five-unit deficit as we’ve reached the middle of the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-New Orleans 52

Best Under: Baltimore-Tennessee 43

Best Team Total: Over 17 ? Denver Broncos

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 43 ? Tampa Bay-New Orleans
Under 61 Kansas City-Dallas
Under 52 ? Oakland-Miami

 

[Cnotes53]

Pick Six - Week 9
November 2, 2017

Week 8 Record: 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 25-23 SU, 21-26-1 ATS

Broncos at Eagles (-7 ?, 43) ? 1:00 PM EST

Denver
Record: 3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Broncos have fallen apart following a 3-1 start by dropping three straight games, while scoring 19 points or less in five consecutive contests. Denver has pulled the plug on quarterback Trevor Siemian following Monday night?s 29-19 setback at Kansas City, as Brock Osweiler is back in the saddle for the Broncos. Osweiler last started for Denver in the Super Bowl winning season of 2015 before signing with the Texans. Denver is winless in three road games, while losing seven of its past nine contests away from Sports Authority Field.

Philadelphia
Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The Eagles keep rolling following a 33-10 rout of the winless 49ers to pick up their sixth consecutive victory. Philadelphia has covered in five straight games, while owning a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Quarterback Carson Wentz has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, while busting the 28-point mark in each of those victories. The Eagles are hosting the Broncos for the first time since 2009 when Philadelphia edged Denver, 30-27 as seven-point favorites.

Best Bet: Broncos +7 ?

Rams (-3 ?, 42) at Giants ? 1:00 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

The Rams return from the bye week fresh off a 33-0 shutout of the Cardinals in London back in Week 7 to pick up their fifth win of the season. Last season, Los Angeles finished 4-12, so this team has already exceeded their win total from 2016 as their next two opponents are currently below the .500 mark (Giants and Texans). The Rams have stepped up defensively of late by allowing 33 points in their last three games, while finishing off a three-game stretch away from the Coliseum.

New York
Record: 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Giants are also off their bye week, but New York couldn?t put together enough offense to beat Seattle in a 24-7 setback two weeks ago. New York is in a stretch of three consecutive games against NFC West opponents (at San Francisco next week), as the Giants beat the Rams last season in London, 17-10, the fourth straight win in the series since 2008. The Giants seek their first home victory following an 0-3 SU/ATS start at Met Life Stadium after closing last season with six straight wins in New Jersey.

Best Bet: Rams -3 ?

Bengals at Jaguars (-5 ?, 39) ? 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati
Record: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

It hasn?t been a pretty start to the season for Cincinnati, but the Bengals have surged of late by winning three of their past four games to pull within one game of .500. Granted, two of those wins have come against Cleveland and Indianapolis, but the Bengals will take this stretch over the 0-3 start to the season. In last Sunday?s one-point win over the Colts, the Bengals needed a 16-yard interception return for a touchdown by Carlos Dunlap in the fourth quarter to deny Indianapolis its first road victory of the season.

Jacksonville
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

Jacksonville is the only team in the league to own this distinction, alternating SU/ATS wins and losses through the first seven weeks. The Jaguars are coming off a 27-0 shutout of the Colts in Week 7 to easily cash as three-point favorites, while limiting an opponent to less than 10 points for the fourth time this season. Jacksonville will try to get on track at home, where it is 0-2 SU/ATS at EverBank Field, and owns a 1-10 record the past 11 home contests since 2015.

Best Bet: Bengals +5 ?

Falcons (-1, 43 ?) at Panthers ? 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta
Record: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

Atlanta snapped a three-game skid to avoid falling below .500 in last Sunday?s 25-20 victory over the Jets. The Falcons failed to cover for the fourth straight week, but the offense finally busted out as Matt Ryan tossed a pair of touchdown passes, while the ground game racked up 140 yards. Atlanta has yet to play an NFC South opponent this season, as the Falcons compiled a 5-1 division record last season, including a sweep of the Panthers.

Carolina
Record: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

The Panthers seem like a sinking ship in spite of a 5-3 record as top target Kelvin Benjamin was dealt to the Bills this week. Carolina ended a two-game losing streak with a 17-3 triumph at Tampa Bay to improve to 4-1 on the road. The Panthers need to improve their home mark, which sits at 1-2 after losing to the Saints and Eagles at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina owns a perfect 3-0 ATS mark in the underdog role, while going 6-2 ATS when receiving points since the start of 2016.

Best Bet: Falcons -1

Redskins at Seahawks (-7, 45) ? 4:05 PM EST

Washington
Record: 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

Things haven?t gone well for the Redskins since 2-1 start, who have lost three of their past four games with the lone victory coming against the winless 49ers by two points. Washington is in the midst of an 0-4 ATS streak, capped off by recent divisional losses to Philadelphia and Dallas. The Redskins have been lit up during this stretch by allowing 29, 24, 34, and 33 points, resulting in four consecutive OVERS. Washington makes its first trip to Seattle since 2011 when it beat the Seahawks, 23-17, but have lost the last two matchups at home in the 2012 playoffs and 2014 regular season.

Seattle
Record: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Seahawks have rebounded from a 1-2 start by winning four straight games, highlighted by a thrilling 41-38 triumph over the Texans last Sunday. Seattle failed to cash as six-point favorites, but Russell Wilson rallied the Seahawks with a late touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham, finishing off a 452-yard, four touchdown performance. Even though Seattle?s defense allowed more points to Houston (38) than it had in its previous three victories (35), the Seahawks improved to 11-1 in their past 12 games at CenturyLink Field.

Best Bet: Redskins +7

Chiefs at Cowboys (-1, 51 ?) ? 4:25 PM EST

Kansas City
Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The Chiefs put their brief two-game losing streak behind them in Monday?s 29-19 home victory over the Broncos as seven-point favorites. Kansas City was outgained for the third straight game, but the Chiefs improved to 2-1 in the AFC West and 3-1 SU/ATS at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs started 3-0 on the road, including impressive showings at New England and Houston before a last-second loss at Oakland in Week 7. Kansas City heads to Dallas for the first time since 2005, while beating the Cowboys in their last matchup in 2013 by a 17-16 count as three-point favorites.

Dallas
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Cowboys were ready to begin life without star running back Ezekiel Elliott, but his six-game suspension is still on hold following another stay from the courts. Dallas returns home following a pair of road blowouts of San Francisco and Washington to improve to 3-1 away from AT&T Stadium. However, the Cowboys haven?t won at home since Week 1 against the Giants, as Dallas blew late leads in losses to Los Angeles and Green Bay in October. Dallas has registered four consecutive OVERS, while topping the 28-point mark in five straight games.

Best Bet: Chiefs +1

 

[Cnotes53]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 9
November 3, 2017

The Falcons have won and covered their last three meetings with the Panthers, but they come into Sunday's game at Carolina having failed to cover their last four games. In the past 24 hours, the Falcons went from being a one-point underdog to a two-point favorite.

"Yeah, that's one hot off the presses," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal of the move Friday morning. "We've had a couple plays on the Falcons this morning forcing the move."

William Hill's 107 sports books reported on Thursday night they had 76 percent of their cash wagered on the game siding with the Falcons.

"We had a couple of games bet early in the week that we're still kind of heavy on," said Simbal. "They (sharps) took the Raiders at -2.5 and -2.5 -120 forcing us to -3 and then they took the Chiefs when it was at pick 'em when it was thought that Ezekiel Elliott wouldn't play, but when we got word he would play -- I got it from Twitter, not a screen alert -- we immediately moved to -2 and we're at -2.5 now. We're in a pretty good spot with that game"

William Hill books had 82 percent of the cash wagered on the game taking the Chiefs with 65 percent of tickets written also being on the Chiefs. They also have 85 percent of the tickets written on the Raiders-Dolphins game on the Raiders. The Raiders are playing their second consecutive week on the east coast.

The Rams have been bet up to -4 at a few books in town, one of which isn't William Hill books who are still at -3.5 despite 98 percent of the cash wagered on the game being on the Rams. Simbal said his CG books took a few large bets on the Giants earlier in the week but Rams money is flowing in strong. The Giants have covered the past eight meetings with the Rams dating back to 2001.

"The big game for us on Sunday is us needing Washington at Seattle," Simbal said. "That's our big public game so far."

The Seahawks opened -7 at CG books and have been bet up to -7 -120. The Golden Nugget and Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook are dealing -7.5 EVEN.

Station Casinos sports books director Jason McCormick said his books deadliest four-team parlay on the day would be the public cashing in on the Eagles, Seahawks, Rams and Saints. The Eagles are seven-point home favorites against Brock Osweiler and the Broncos and the Saints are 7-point home favorites against the reeling Bucs who haven't covered a spread since their first game.

All the books across town will be hoping for positive results on Sunday after getting buried during the World Series with most of the damage coming from one 26-year-old bettor that rolled his winnings over in five of the World Series games. He went 5-0.

"We took more than a $1 million loss on the World Series," said Simbal, and when asked if it more than $2 million, he said "No, but close".

The guy that beat the CG books also beat several books along the strip, but not the $14 million some news outlets are reporting based on a weak source they found on Twitter. None of these news agencies followed up or verified with the actual books they were reporting on.

This bettor bet everywhere and took as much as the book would give him and he didn't care what the line was. MGM Resort books deal a 20 cent line and he was there betting all five games for as much as he could and rolled his winnings over. In the end he didn't even bet Game 7 to give the books a chance to get their money back. The losses throughout town totaled closer $3.8 million, and that's verified.

"We had a great baseball season up to the World Series, but we lost six figures on every game except Game 5," Simbal said. "And to top it off we lost a bunch on futures and the series prices with the Astros. We had a $300,000 bet on the Astros to win the series at +160. The entire series was awful for us and ruined what was a good season.

The big losses did some serious damage to the baseball season win percentage.

"We went from holding 2.3 percent in baseball on the season before the series and now were at 1.2 percent if that gives some perspective of how terrible the World Series was for us," said Simbal.

The Westgate SuperBook has the Los Angeles Dodgers as 5/1 favorites to win the 2018 World Series.

 

[Cnotes53]

Gridiron Angles - Week 9
November 4, 2017

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 12-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since Oct 30, 2011 off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Redskins are 0-11 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since Nov 28, 1996 as a road dog of more than a TD where they had less than 28 minutes time of possession

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Falcons are 0-8-1 OU (-8.0 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 as a dog when facing a team they defeated last meeting where Matt Ryan threw at least two touchdowns.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams which benefited from at least 15 penalties last game are 35-45-3 ATS. Active against NY Giants.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Panthers are 0-16 OU (-6.2 ppg) since Oct 14, 2007 off a game as a road dog where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Broncos are 12-0 OU (13.5 ppg) since Dec 09, 1990 and as a dog of more than three points coming off a loss where they allowed less than 18 first downs.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 14-0 ATS (+11.8 ppg) when visiting a non-divisional opponent with a lower winning percentage.

 

[Cnotes53]

Best Bets - Week 9 Sides
November 2, 2017

NFL Week 9 Best Bets ? Sides

Week 9 means that we've basically hit the halfway point of the campaign and what we've seen from teams so far is basically what we should come to expect going forward. If a NFL team hasn't established some sort of identity ? good or bad ? by this point of the year, they are likely in some serious trouble moving forward.

Yet, after one of the most active trade deadlines we've had in the NFL earlier this week, there are a few teams looking to reshape their current identities going forward. Two of those teams who made big trades at the deadline are involved in the games I've isolated as best bets for the week as both are involved in divisional matchups this week.

Best Bet #1: Carolina Panthers -1

It's funny how quick perception can change on teams on a week-to-week basis in this league. Atlanta was able to bring home the cash last week if you bet it earlier in the week as I did here at -4.5 with their five-point comeback win over the Jets. Bettors weren't thrilled with the Falcons after their blowout loss in New England the week prior, but after a close win against a bad Jets team, it appears as though many are back on the Falcons bandwagon.

VegasInsider.com's betting percentages show more then 70% of the bets so far have come Atlanta's way this week, and that action has pushed the line down from it's opener of -2.5 on Carolina. Not only did Atlanta's victory help their cause, but Carolina trading away WR Kelvin Benjamin this week has many believing that the 5-3 SU Panthers are basically ?punting? on this season now.

Yet, the Panthers defense is one of the best in the entire league, and whatever the reasons that the Carolina brass had for making the Benjamin trade, in their eyes it was the right move to do. There is no way the Panthers view that move as a ?punt? on the campaign, and I wouldn't be surprised if a move like that tightens the bonds within that locker room and we see everyone step up their play this week.

Secondly, the Falcons are in a brutal scheduling spot with this being their third consecutive game on the road. Fading teams in that spot typically works out more often than not regardless of opponent, but it's even better against a divisional rival that's got a ferocious defense and battling for first place.

This 2017 Atlanta Falcons team is nowhere near the same one as last year's bunch that went to the Super Bowl, and wouldn't you know it, Super Bowl losers playing their third straight game on the road are 1-10 SU and ATS the last 11 times this situation has come up.

With this spread basically a pick'em now, I'm riding with the home side who many are writing off now simply because of one trade. WR's injuries/absences etc generally mean next to nothing to the point spread, but everyone's already reacting to the Benjamin trade like the Panthers aren't going to win again this year. With the league's second best defense and plenty of weapons still in town, this Carolina team comes out with a huge chip on their shoulder and wins this game by at least a TD.

Best Bet #2: Arizona Cardinals -2

The Cardinals are in San Francisco this week to take on a 49ers team that went out and got their QB of the future (hopefully) this week when they got Jimmy Garoppolo from New England. There has been talk that Garoppolo could end up seeing the field just five days after he was acquired, but even if that's the case it's going to be a base type offense from a San Fran team that is really quite bad.

Arizona is coming off their bye week after getting flat out embarrassed over in London last time out. The 33-0 loss they suffered to the Rams was a double-whammy with Carson Palmer getting hurt, but backup Drew Tate has plenty of experience in this league and the extra week to prepare with the first team will only help his cause.

Going up against a bad 49ers team that took Arizona to OT earlier this year suggests that Tate and his Cardinals teammates aren't going to take this game lightly at all, and with Arizona's playoff aspirations arguably on the line during the next few weeks, this is an absolute must-have game for Arizona.

Flipping ATS and O/U results in division rematch games in the NFL is something I'm sure you've heard me talk about before, and although Arizona did win that first meeting in OT, they failed to cover the number. That shouldn't be the case this week as the well-rested Cardinals take full advantage of a 49ers team in the middle of an identity shift just looking to find some stability at QB.

Arizona is 5-0 ATS after getting blanked the last five times it's happened, and you've got to like taking teams off a bye when their last outing was disastrous. There is no worry about strong momentum being broken with the time off, and all that extra time in this case helped the Cardinals assess their plan for the rest of the year and put in a good week of practice to see if they can turn 2017 around.

 

[Cnotes53]

Best Bets - Week 9 Totals
November 2, 2017

NFL Week 9 Best Bets ? Totals

We've got a wide range of totals put up by oddsmakers this week as there are a couple of NFL games currently in the 39 range, while a few others are 50+. In the middle there currently isn't anything higher than 45, so it's clear that oddsmakers believe that all the points we see in Week 9 will likely come from a select few games as teams begin the second half of 2017.

Will that be the case or will a few of the games with low posted totals end up surprising many and become full blown shootouts? We will have to wait until Sunday to find out, but for now let's get to this week's best total plays.

Odds per - HeritageSports.eu

Best Bet #1: Cincinnati/Jacksonville Over 39

The Bengals saved their season at least for another week when they were able to get a defensive TD late last week to beat Indianapolis 24-23 as a double-digit home favorite. I use the term ?saved? very loosely though as it looks at though it's just a matter of time before the Bengals find themselves well out of the playoff race in the AFC this year, although that could change with a strong performance in Jacksonville this weekend. QB Andy Dalton has to be much, much better if Cincy wants any hope of turning things around, and he'll definitely be in tough against this ?Sacksonville? defense.

The Jaguars are coming off their bye week here, and teams coming off their week of rest in the NFL are 6-4 O/U already this year. Jacksonville is one of six teams in that spot this week, but they are the one with the lowest posted total on the board and I do like their chances to put up points. If a depleted Colts attack can score 23 on Cincy, a Jags team that has scored 20+ in five of their seven games should be able to put up a similar number.

In fact, Jacksonville has only failed to score less then 20 in two of their three losses this year, and with the point spread on the Jags opening up at -3.5 and since being bet up to -5.5, clearly many bettors out there like them to win this game. I'm inclined to agree, and with 27+ points scored in all four of the Jags wins this year, this total is too low.

Jacksonville is 3-1 O/U after the bye week the past four years, and with the pressure the DL line gets for the Jags, getting Andy Dalton to turn the ball over and get a short field a few times definitely helps this 'over' play. The Jags are also 5-0 O/U in their last five at home, and with their last outing being a shutout victory over those same Colts, a 5-0 O/U trend comes into play as well for the Jags after allowing 14 or fewer points.

Cincinnati will do their part to put up points and take shots when they can because when the going gets tough for this team, Dalton reverts to the mode of simply taking shots downfield to AJ Green. That entire Bengals locker room knows they need a lot more production on offense and this could be the week we see them break out a bit. Yes, Jacksonville's defense is good, but this is still a Jags organization that's still learning how to win and when franchises are in that stage, mistakes do happen.

Finally, this 'over' play fits well with the contrarian mentality if that's what you typically prefer. VegasInsider.com current shows more than 90% of the action on this total has come in on the low side of this low number as all the talk concerns the Bengals horrific offense, Jacksonville's ability to get to the QB, and the Jags preference to run the ball and bleed the clock. All of those things are true, but they also don't mean points won't be scored.

Jacksonville has the best rushing attack in the league (169 rushing yards/game), and favorites that have rushed the ball for at least 140 yards this year are 19-3 O/U. That's not a trend I'm looking to buck here, especially when the weakness of Cincinnati's defense is against the run.

With a high likelihood of multiple turnovers here, from both sides, we could see a lot of short fields for both offenses and as long as they can convert those drives into TD's and not FG's, this game should easily hit 40+ points.

Odds per - HeritageSports.eu

Best Bet #2: Kansas City/Dallas Under 51

This Kansas City/Dallas game is one of the marquee matchups in the later afternoon slate on Sunday, and it is one of those games where oddsmakers do expect to see points. With KC on a 4-1 O/U run over their last five games, and Dallas 4-0 O/U in their last four and 5-1 O/U in their last six, it's easy to see why many do expect plenty of points to be scored.

Dallas has three straight weeks of putting 30+ up on the board, and Kansas City isn't far behind with all but one of their games this year having at least 24 points scored.

However, this will be the first game without RB Ezekiel Elliott for the Cowboys this year and although RB's mean next to nothing to point spreads and totals, there is no question his replacements in Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden are a downgrade. The Cowboys are still a run-first team and when you employ that strategy and have backs that are less likely to break the big run, the game shortens up in a hurry and a high total like this will be tough to reach.

Kansas City is coming off two tough division games the last two weeks and Andy Reid can't be happy that the defense allowed a combined 50 points in those two outings. KC will likely want to get back to their own running game with Kareem Hunt to keep Dak Prescott and the Cowboys attack off the field, and with a 2-5 O/U record after a MNF game, this total may be a touch to high to surpass.

Finally, KC is in a prime 'under' spot that we've seen the last few weeks as they are one of four teams heading into their bye week in Week 10. NFL teams are 6-16 O/U this year the week before their bye and that includes a 2-10 O/U run the past two weeks. This angle could lose some steam over the next few weeks, but with the number on this KC/Dallas game being one of the highest on the board, I'm willing to ride it at least one more time for this specific spot.