Cnotes 2023 Preview of Conference Football Teams

[Cnotes53]

SEC CONFERENCE

Alabama
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— unclear who QB will be, but he’ll be inexperienced.
— Alabama was even in turnovers LY (+76 from 2015-21)
— Last three years, Alabama is 13-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.
— Since 2018, Alabama is 0-1 ATS as an underdog.

Arkansas
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 78 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has 24 starts
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 15-10-2 ATS in SEC games.
— Under Pittman, Hogs are 12-6 ATS as an underdog.
— Razorbacks won three of their last four bowls, scoring 37 ppg.

Auburn
— Last three years, Auburn is 17-19 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line
— sophomore QB started 9 games last year.
— In his career, Freeze is 25-10 ATS as an underdog.
— Auburn is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— Freeze is 6-1 SU in bowl games; he is Auburn’s 3rd coach in 4 years.

Florida
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 74 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 32 games at Wisconsin
— Last two years, Gators went 6-7/6-7.
— Last three years, Florida is 1-9 ATS as a road favorite.
— Florida lost its last three bowls, outscored 114-40.

Georgia
— Since 2017, Georgia is 73-10 SU
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— New QB for Georgia; they’ll miss Stetson Bennett.
— Under Smart, Dawgs are 19-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Since 2018, Georgia is 0-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Dawgs won their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS)

Kentucky
— 10 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line (four starters back)
— senior QB started 26 games at NC State.
— Under Stoops, Kentucky is 22-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Kentucky is 11-5 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
— Wildcats won four of their last five bowls (lost 21-0 LY).

LSU
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 102 starts back on offensive line
— Junior QB has started 43 games, most of them at Arizona State.
— Since 2016, Tigers are 16-8-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— In his career, Kelly is 35-16-2 ATS as an underdog.
— LSU won four of its last five bowls, scoring 45.6 ppg.

Ole Miss
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 131 starts back on offensive line; good offensive line
— junior QB started 12 games last year.
— they added transfer QB with 41 starts at Oklahoma State
— In his college career, Kiffin is 18-24 ATS at home, 29-24-1 on road.
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 11-14 ATS in SEC games.
— Ole Miss is 2-3 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.

Mississippi State
— New coach TY after Mike Leach passed away last year.
— Arnett is a first-time HC (won bowl game 19-10 LY)
— 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has started 32 games.
— Last three years, State is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bulldogs are 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowls.

Missouri
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 136 starts back on offensive line; very experienced
— junior QB has started 14 games.
— Last four years, Tigers are 23-25 SU.
— In his career, Drinkwitz is 13-8 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Mizzou lost its last four bowls; their last bowl win— 2015.

South Carolina
— 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they added two I-AA transfers, too.
— Junior QB has 30 starts, 13 of them at Oklahoma.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS outside the SEC.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 7-2 ATS as a favorite.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 7-3 ATS coming off a loss.
— Carolina is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in last five bowls.

Tennessee
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 93 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB has 9 starts; they added a 5-star freshman QB.
— Under Heupel, Tennessee is 8-2 ATS outside the SEC
— Under Heupel, Tennessee is 11-4 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career, Heupel is 3-6 ATS as an underdog.
— Vols are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five bowls.

Texas A&M
— 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line.
— Soph QB Weigman started 4 games last year.
— Soph QB Johnson (Brad Johnson’s son) used to play at LSU
— Under Fisher, Aggies are 22-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Since 2017, A&M is 16-7-1 ATS outside the SEC.
— LSU won its last three bowls, scoring 52-24-41 points.

Vanderbilt
— Last four years, Vandy is 10-35 SU; last bowl was 2018.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 81 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 6 games last year.
— since 2019, Commodores are 2-8 ATS coming off a win
— Under Lea, Vandy is 3-10 ATS at home, 8-3 ATS on road.
— Vandy lost last two bowls 41-17/45-38; their last bowl win was in 2013.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s 6-pack
— Rays 3, Arizona 2— Tampa Bay scored three runs in 9th inning.
— Reds 11, Orioles 7 (10)— Friedl went 3-5, scored 3 runs, had 3 RBI.
— Astros 10, Cardinals 7— Houston scored five runs in 7th inning.
— Rockies 9, Dodgers 8— LA is 24-15 at home, 20-20 on the road.
— Marlins 6, Red Sox 2— Marlins lead NL Wild Card race by 2 games.
— New York 11, Oakland 0— German tossed first perfect game since 2012.


Quote of the Day
“All is not lost yet, but it’s getting late………if we don’t get better, we have decisions to make at the (trade) deadline.”
Mets’ owner Steve Cohen


Thursday’s quiz
In the 2015 movie Danny Collins, what famous actress played Al Pacino’s daughter-in-law?


Wednesday’s quiz
USC’s baseball team has won the most national championships (12)


Tuesday’s quiz
The TV show Frasier was based in Seattle.

*************************************************


Thursday’s Den: Pac-12 football knowledge………

Arizona
— last three years, Arizona is 6-23 SU (minus-32 in turnovers)
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 27 starts, 15 of them at Washington State.
— since 2015, Arizona is 10-22 ATS as a road underdog.
— last four years, Arizona is 1-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Arizona hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2017.


Arizona State
— 32-year old first-year HC was OC at Oregon last year.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 151 starts back on offensive line— added 6 transfers on OL
— who will new QB be? They added several transfers
— last four years, Sun Devils are 7-15 ATS as an underdog.
— last 10 years, ASU is 26-37 ATS coming off a win
— ASU lost four of their last five bowls (won ’19 Sun Bowl, 20-14)


California
— Last three years, California is 10-18 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line
— new QB’s; one was backup at TCU, another at NC State.
— since 2014, Golden Bears are 23-12 ATS as a road underdog.
— last four years, Cal is 15-5 ATS overall as an underdog.
— Cal is 2-3 SU in last five bowls; their last bowl was 2019.


Colorado
— Last 3 years, Deion Sanders was 27-6 SU at I-AA Jackson State.
— 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 44 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB (Deion’s son) started 26 games at I-AA Jackson State.
— last four years, Colorado was 4-13 ATS as a road underdog.
— since 2017, Buffs are 12-23-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Colorado lost its last four bowls; their last bowl win was in 2004.


Oregon
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 96 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB Nix QB has 47 career starts, 34 of them at Auburn.
— Last five years, Ducks are 45-16 SU.
— Oregon was 8-3 ATS as a favorite in Lanning’s first season LY.
— Since 2014, Oregon is 11-20-2 ATS outside Pac-12.
— Ducks are 3-2 in last five bowl games; all three wins were by one point.


Oregon State
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 28 games at Clemson.
— Under Smith, OSU is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last three years, Beavers are 15-3 ATS coming off a win.
— Under Smith, underdogs are 18-7 ATS in OSU road games.
— Beavers are 2-3 SU in last five bowls (were favored in all five).


USC
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has started 21 games, is favored to win Heisman Trophy.
— In his career, Riley is 23-15 ATS as a home favorite, 5-2 at USC.
— In his career, underdog is 17-8-1 ATS in Riley’s road games.
— USC is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 3 of 5 games)
— Their last bowl win was 52-49 over Penn State in 2016 Rose Bowl


Stanford
— New HC Taylor was 30-8 SU as HC at I-AA Sacramento State
— 3 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 15 starts back on OL; added 2 OL transfers from Ivy League
— whoever new QB is will be inexperienced
— Cardinal went 3-9/3-9 SU the last two years.
— Last two years, Stanford was 6-18 SU/5-19 ATS.
— Stanford won four of its last five bowls; last one was in 2018.


UCLA
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line; high expectations.
— new QB this year; Schlee was starter LY for 5-7 Kent State.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 6-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2014, UCLA is 7-20-1 ATS outside the Pac-12.
— UCLA lost its last three bowls, giving up 37-35-37 points.
— Bruins’ last bowl win was 40-35 over K-State in 2014 Alamo Bowl.


Utah
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; high expectations
— senior QB has started 24 games.
— Last four years, Utes are 34-13 SU.
— In his career, Whittingham is 34-22 ATS as an underdog.
— Since 2018, Utah is 5-10-1 ATS outside the Pac-12.
— Utah lost last four bowls, after Whittingham started out 11-1 in bowls.


Washington
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 36 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 30 starts, 17 of them at Indiana.
— since 2017, Washington is 7-13 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2018, Washington is 14-27 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— last ten years, Huskies are 7-13 ATS as an underdog
— Huskies won their last two bowls, 38-7/27-20.


Washington State
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 13 games LY; he previously played at I-AA Incarnate Word, came to Wazzu with the new OC.
— last two years, Wazzu is 13-4-1 ATS in Pac-12 games
— since 2017, Coogs are 7-12-1 ATS outside Pac-12.
— since 2018, Wazzu is 6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Coogs lost last three bowls; last bowl win was 2018 Alamo Bowl.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday’s Den: Info, trends on Big 14 football teams​

Illinois
— Last year was Illinois’ first winning season since 2011.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— They’ll have a new QB; one candidate started 12 games at Ball State.
— since 2017, Illinois is 7-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Bielema, Illinois is 9-4 ATS as an underdog.
— Illinois is 3-2 in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of the 5 games.

Indiana
— Hoosiers are 6-18 SU the last two years.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 97 starts back on OL, lot of those are transfers.
— They also hired a new offensive line coach, from Wisconsin.
— who will new QB be? Could be Tennessee soph transfer Tayven Jackson
— under Allen, Hoosiers are 12-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Allen, Indiana is 13-18 ATS on the road.
— Indiana lost its last six bowls; their last win was the 1991 Copper Bowl.
— Hoosiers did cover three of their last four bowls.

Iowa
— Iowa has had 10 straight winning years; they were never in top 25 last year.
— Iowa went 8-5 LY, despite scoring only 17.7 ppg.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 114 starts back on offensive line
— new QB McNamara started 16 games at Michigan.
— last 10 years, Iowa is 21-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Hawkeyes are 16-7-1 ATS in last 24 road games.
— Iowa won four of its last five bowl games (5-0 ATS)

Maryland
— Terps were 7-6/8-5 the last two seasons, after 6 straight losing years.
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 D-I starts back on offensive line; they added a I-AA OL star.
— senior QB Tagovailoa (Tua’s brother) has 28 career starts.
— under Locksley, Maryland is 8-14 ATS on the road.
— in his career, Locksley is 21-32 ATS as an underdog.
— Maryland won its last two bowls, 54-10/16-12.

Michigan
— last two years, Wolverines were 25-3 SU, 17-9-2 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense— 145 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB McCarthy has 13 career starts (22 TD passes, 5 INT LY).
— Last two years, Wolverines are 5-2-1 ATS as road favorites.
— Last two years, Michigan was 12-6-2 ATS in conference games.
— Since 2016, Michigan is 5-10 ATS coming off a loss.
— Michigan is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls, giving up 40.3 ppg in last four

Michigan State
— Spartans were 5-7 LY, after going 11-2 the year before.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 77 starts back on offensive line
— whoever new QB will be is an inexperienced QB.
— Under Tucker, MSU is 7-5 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2017, Spartans are 7-17 ATS coming off a win.
— since 2017, Spartans are 17-24-2 ATS in Big 14 games.
— Spartans won three of their last four bowls.

Minnesota
— Gophers went 9-4/9-4 the last two seasons.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 49 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB Kaliakmanis started 5 games last year.
— In his career, Fleck is 34-25-1 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career, Fleck is 20-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— last four years, Gophers are 19-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Minnesota won its last six bowls, covering four of last five.

Nebraska
— New HC Rhule was HC at Temple/Baylor, Carolina Panthers.
— Last six years, Nebraska is 23-45 SU/30-36-2 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line.
— QB Sims started 23 games at Georgia Tech.
— In his college career, Rhule is 31-13 ATS as an underdog.
— In his college career, Rhule is 28-12 ATS on the road.
— Since 2015, Cornhuskers are 12-21-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Nebraska’s last bowl was in 2016; they’re 2-3 SU in last five bowls.

Northwestern
— Last two years, Northwestern was 4-20 SU/8-16 ATS
— 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 27 starts back on offensive line.
— QB’s all got hurt LY; Cincy transfer Bryant started 11 games there.
— since 2018, Wildcats are 4-11-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2014, Northwestern is 21-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Wildcats are 4-12-2 ATS in last 18 non-conference games.
— Northwestern won its last four bowls, but last one was in 2020.

Ohio State
— Last ten years, Buckeyes are 116-15 SU/68-62-1 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line; had 3 starters drafted last spring.
— whoever the QB is will be inexperienced.
— Last 10 years, Buckeyes are 4-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Day, Ohio State is 16-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Day, Ohio State is 7-9 ATS outside the Big 14
— Ohio State split last six bowls, giving up 52-45-42 points in last three.

Penn State
— Last two years, Penn State is +11/+6 in turnovers.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB threw 60 passes as the backup LY.
— last two years, Penn State is 7-4-1 ATS as home favorites.
— last four years, Penn State is 9-4 ATS as road favorites.
— since 2015, Nittany Lions are 39-17-3 ATS coming off a win.
— Penn State is 3-2 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.

Purdue
— New HC Walters was DC at Illinois the last two years.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line.
— all the QB’s are new; junior QB Card started 5 games at Texas.
— last two years, Purdue was 9-4/8-6 SU
— since 2018, Boilers are 4-13 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2014, Purdue is 23-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Purdue is 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowls, giving up 52.8 ppg.

Rutgers
— since 2015, Rutgers is 25-69 SU/44-50 ATS.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 101 starters back on offensive line; new OL coach comes from NFL.
— soph QB started 6 games last year.
— since 2018, Scarlet Knights are 6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2019, Rutgers is 4-14 ATS as a home underdog.
— in his college career, Schiano is 31-19-1 ATS as a road underdog
— Rutgers is 1-3 in its last four bowls; last bowl win was in 2014.

Wisconsin
— new coach Fickell has a 64-25 SU record as a head coach.
— Wisconsin’s 7-6 record LY was their worst since 2008.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 97 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 24 games at SMU.
— last 10 years, Badgers are 23-12 ATS as a road favorite.
— last 10 years, Badgers are 26-14 ATS outside the Big 14.
— In his career, Fickell 14-8 ATS as an underdog.
— Wisconsin won/covered its last three bowls.

 

[Cnotes53]

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE !

Tuesday’s Den: Mountain West football trends……..​

— Air Force
Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
Calhoun is 35-26-2 ATS as an underdog.

— Boise State
Since 207, Broncos are 8-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Last three years, Boise is 7-13 ATS coming off a win.

— Colorado State
Rams lost their last four bowls, giving up 41.3 ppg.
Their last bowl win was in 2013, 48-45 over Washington State.

— Fresno State
Under Tedford, Bulldogs are 10-3-1 ATS
Fresno win its last four bowl game, scoring 30.8 ppg.

— Hawai’i
Since 2019, Rainbows are 11-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2014, Hawai’i is 7-22-1 ATS as a home favorite.

— Nevada
Since 2017, Wolf Pack is 11-17 ATS outside the Mountain West.

— UNLV
Rebels haven’t been to a bowl game since 2013.
UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.
Since 2014, Rebels are 19-32 ATS at home.

— New Mexico
Last six years, Lobos are 15-52 SU
Last two years, New Mexico was 2-13-1 ATS in Mountain West games.

— San Diego State
Since 2013, Aztecs are 10-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Aztecs are 18-32 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite.

— San Jose State
Since 2014, Spartans are 16-24 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Brennan, San Jose is 17-13-1 ATS at home.

— Utah State
Over last 10 years, Aggies are 25-14-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Over last 10 years, Aggies are 5-13 ATS as a home underdog.

— Wyoming
Under Bohl, Wyoming is 30-21-1 ATS at home.
Since 2016, Cowboys are 21-14 ATS coming off a loss.

 

[Cnotes53]

Big X college football trends……..​

— Last 10 years, Texas Longhorns are 27-36 ATS coming off a win.

— Oklahoma was 6-7 SU last year; from 2013-21, they were 97-21.

— Since 2016, Kansas State is 18-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Klieman, K-State is 15-7 ATS as a favorite.

— Since 2016, TCU is 10-21-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Horned Frogs are 18-12-2 ATS in their last 32 games outside the Big X.

— Last four years, Baylor is 31-19 SU, +33 in turnovers.
Last two years, Bears are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.

— Last three years, Texas Tech is 19-17 SU, despite a minus-22 turnover ratio.
Last four years, Red Raiders are 5-11 ATS as a road underdog.

— Since 2015, Oklahoma State is 17-8 ATS as an underdog.

— Central Florida is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
UCF is 16-24 ATS in its last 40 games as a favorite.

— Under Campbell, Iowa State is 21-11-2 ATS as an underdog.

— In his career, Leipold is 29-14-2 ATS in home games.
Last ten years, Kansas hasn’t been favored at all on the road.

— Last seven years, BYU is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog.

— Last five bowl games, West Virginia is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS.
Since 2018, Mountaineers are 11-5 ATS as a home favorite.

— In his career, Houston coach Holgorson is 18-12 ATS as a road underdog, 27-42-1 ATS in home games.

— Last three years, Cincinnati was 31-6 SU, but 0-3 in bowl games, losing by a combined score of 75-34. New coach Satterfield is 4-1 SU in bowl games.

 

[Cnotes53]

ACC football knowledge for this fall​

Boston College
— BC was 3-9 last year, their worst season since 2015.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line- expected to be much better.
— soph QB started 4 games LY: other QB transferred to Pitt.
— under Hafley, Eagles are 4-7 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2017, BC is 14-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— BC had 2 of last three bowls cancelled (2018/2021)
— Eagles lost last two bowls 27-20/38-6; their last bowl win was 2016.

Clemson
— Last 10 years, Clemson is 121-18 SU.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 99 starts back on OL, with four returning starters.
— soph QB threw 100 passes LY, but started only once.
— since 2020, Tigers are 8-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— last five years, Clemson is 30-12-1 ATS in ACC games.
— last two years, Clemson is 2-8 ATS out of conference
— Clemson lost three of its last four bowls SU.

Duke
— Duke was 9-4 LY, after going 10-24 from 2019-21.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line, with 4 starters back
— junior QB has started 14 games.
— last two years, Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS as home favorites.
— last three years, Duke is 4-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— weird stat; last 10 years, Duke is 33-10 ATS outside the ACC.
— Duke won/covered its last four bowls; last bowl loss was in 2014.

Florida State
— FSU went 10-3 last year; from 2018-21, Seminoles were 19-27.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 206 starts back on offensive line; an extremely experienced OL.
— senior QB has 26 career starts.
— since 2014, FSU is 20-28 ATS as a home favorite.
— in his career, Norvell is 13-6 ATS as aa road favorite.
— Florida State won three of its last four bowls SU.

Georgia Tech
— Tech has had 4 straight losing seasons (14-32 SU/17-28-1 ATS)
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line; 4 starters are back
— Tech’s head coach Key was on OL coach at Alabama.
— soph QB started 7 games in 3 years at Texas A&M.
— since 2018, Tech is 3-11-1 ATS as home favorites.
— since 2015, GT is 2-10 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2018, Tech is 4-14 ATS outside the ACC.
— Tech is 3-2 in last five bowls; their last bowl was in 2018.

Louisville
— New coach Brohm played QB at Louisville from 1989-93.
— Brohm is 66-44 SU as a HC, at Western Kentucky/Purdue
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB Plummer threw for 3,095 yards at Cal LY.
— in his coaching career, Brohm is 25-16-1 ATS as an underdog.
— since 2019, Cardinals are 12-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2019, Louisville is 15-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Louisville is 2-3 in its last five bowls.

Miami
— Miami was 5-7 LY, their first losing season since 2014.
— 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line; should be much better TY.
— junior QB has 18 career starts.
— since 2017, Miami is 13-21 ATS as a home favorite.
— In his career, Cristobal is 14-26-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— last four years, Miami is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Miami lost its last six bowls; their last bowl win was in 2016.

North Carolina
— UNC is 30-22 last 4 years under Mack Brown (5-18 the 2 years before that)
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB Maye started 14 games LY, is a Heisman contender.
— last three years, Tar Heels are 1-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2018, UNC is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— last two years, Carolina is 7-10 ATS in ACC games.
— UNC lost its last three bowls, giving up 35.7 ppg.

NC State
— Last three years, Wolfpack was 25-12 SU/19-18 ATS
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— New QB Armstrong started 30 games at Virginia; he’s good.
— under Doeren, State is 9-17-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— last three years, Wolfpack is 7-3 ATS coming off a loss.
— last five years, NC State is 18-23-1 ATS in ACC games.
— NC State lost its last three bowls; their last bowl win was 2017.

Pittsburgh
— Last two years, Panthers were 20-7 SU/16-11 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; 3 starters are back.
— senior QB Jurkovec started 24 games at Boston College
— Pitt hosts Boston College on November 16.
— Last four years, Panthers are 8-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 14-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Pitt split its last four bowls; 3 of the 4 were decided by 4 or less points.
— Underdogs covered four of their last five bowls.

Syracuse
— Syracuse was 7-6 LY, their 2nd winning season since 2014.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 47 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 21 games.
— since 2018, Syracuse is 9-5 ATS as home favorites.
— last 10 years, Syracuse is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— last two years, Orange are 9-3 ATS coming off a win.
— Syracuse won four of its last five bowls (were favored in 1 of 5 games).

Virginia
— Virginia was 3-7 LY, after being 28-21 the previous four years.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— only 17 starts back on offensive line.
— new QB is a I-AA transfer; 3-year starter Armstrong bolted to NC State.
— NC State visits Charlottesville September 22.
— last 3 years, Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS coming off a win.
— since 2020, Virginia is 15-9 ATS in ACC games.
— Virginia lost three of last four bowls; last bowl win was in 2018.

Virginia Tech
— Tech has had 3 straight losing years; 14-21 SU/13-22 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 53 starters back on offensive line.
— junior QB Wells started 11 games LY; Baylor transfer Drones is more of a runner.
— since 2019, Hokies are 7-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2016, Tech is 5-14 ATS as a road favorite.
— last 3 years, Tech is 1-11 ATS coming off a win.
— Hokies lost their last four bowls, giving up 39 ppg.
— Tech’s last bowl win was in 2016.

Wake Forest
— 4-year starting QB Hartman bolted to Notre Dame (45 starts).
— Wake Forest was 19-8 SU the last 2 years; why would he leave?
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— whoever the new QB is has big shoes to fill.
— since 2017, Deacons are 17-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— last four years, Wake is 7-4 ATS as an underdog
— In his career, Clawson is 31-21 ATS as a road underdog.
— Wake won bowl games the last two years, 38-10/27-17.

 

[Cnotes53]

College football info from the MAC​

Akron
— Last five years, Akron is 9-45 SU/20-34 ATS.
— Zips were 2-10 LY, but covered five of last six games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 64 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB; started 10 games LY, threw for 2,609 yards.
— Akron was 7-4 ATS as an underdog last year.
— last four years, Zips are 2-10 ATS outside the MAC.
— Zips are 1-2 in bowls in school history; last one was in 2017.

Ball State
— Ball State has one winning season (2020) the last nine years.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 67 starts back on OL, three starters are back.
— senior QB started 12 games at Texas State, also played 3 years at Arkansas State.
— under Neu, Ball State is 10-18 ATS as a favorite.
— under Neu, Ball State is 4-11 ATS as a home underdog, 18-14 as a road dog.
— last four years, Cardinals are 17-14 ATS in MAC games.
— Ball State is 1-8 all-time in bowls, 1-4 SU/ATS in last five.

Bowling Green
— Falcons went bowling LY, but have had 7 straight losing seasons.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 75 starts back on offensive line, are expected to improve.
— junior QB Bazelak started 29 games at Missouri/Indiana.
— under Loeffler, BG is 7-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— last three years, Falcons are 0-4 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2016, Falcons are 5-14-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Bowling Green lost four of its last five bowl games (1-4 ATS)

Buffalo
— Bulls were 11-14 last two years; they were 24-10 from 2018-20.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 13 games LY, threw for school record 3,030 yards.
— under Linguist, Buffalo is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Linguist, Buffalo is 3-10 ATS coming off a loss.
— since 2013, Buffalo is 11-19-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Buffalo won its last three bowls, after losing its first three.

Central Michigan
— Chippewas were minus-18 in turnovers in LY’s 4-8 season.
— 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line.
— unclear who QB will be: Bauer is more of a passer, Emanuel a runner.
— under McElwain, Chippewas are 13-4 ATS as an underdog.
— under McElwain, Chippewas are 13-8 ATS as a favorite.
— Since 2017, Central Michigan is 19-13 ATS coming off a win.
— Michigan is 1-4 SU/ATS in last five bowls; they were underdog in all five.

Eastern Michigan
— Eagles were 7-6/9-4 last two years, after going 32-61 from 2013-20.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 58 starts back on offensive line; only two starters are back.
— soph QB Smith was 3-1 as starter LY, before he got hurt.
— under Creighton, EMU is 7-16 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Creighton, EMU is 29-13-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— last three years, Eagles are 13-9 ATS in MAC games.
— EMU won bowl game 41-27 LY, snapping 4-game bowl losing skid.

Kent State
— Kent went 22-21 last 4 years; their coach bolted to be an assistant at Colorado.
— no starters back on offense, 4 on defense- maybe that is why the coach left.
— only 5 starts back on offensive line
— QB room added transfers from K-State/Purdue.
— new coach was RB’s coach at Minnesota the last six years.
— last 10 years, Flashes are 7-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— last nine years, Flashes are 19-26 ATS as a road underdog.
— Kent State is 1-3 in bowl games, with lone win in 2019.

Miami OH
— Miami had +11 turnover ratio LY, was still only 6-7.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 48 starts back on offensive line; 2 starters bolted to big $$$ teams.
— senior QB has 25 career starts.
— In nine years under Martin, Miami is 17-22 ATS as a favorite.
— Last six years, Miami is 17-23 ATS outside the MAC.
— Last three years, Red Hawks are 4-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Miami is 2-3 AU/5-0 ATS in its last five bowls.

Northern Illinois
— In four years under Hammock, NIU is 17-27 SU/22-22 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 117 starts back on offensive line- they’re supposed to be good.
— QB’s all got hurt LY; all three of them are back. Lombardi has 16 starts. — under Hammock, NIU is 12-4 ATS as a road dog, 10-18 in all other games.
— Huskies are 8-5 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— Last three years, NIU is 2-12 ATS in home games.
— NIU lost its last seven bowls, giving up 45.4 ppg in last five.
— Huskies’ last bowl win? 38-20 over Arkansas State in 2011.

Ohio U
— Ohio was 10-4 last season, after going 3-9 in 2021.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they’re expected to improve.
— soph QB has started 19 games.
— since 2015, Bobcats are 13-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— since 2019, Ohio U is 7-12 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last four years, Bobcats are 4-10 ATS outside the MAC
— Ohio U won/covered its last four bowl games.

Toledo
— Last three years, Toledo is 20-13 SU/15-18 ATS.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line— 4 starters are back
— junior QB has 19 starts, was 2nd-team all-MAC last year.
— last four years, Toledo is 7-12 ATS as home favorites.
— under Candle, Toledo is 4-10 ATS as road underdogs.
— since 2018, Rockets are 11-20 ATS coming off a win.
— Toledo is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls- they beat Liberty 21-19 LY.

Western Michigan
— WMU was 5-7 last year, their first losing season since 2013.
— 8 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
— 81 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 22 games at Old Dominion; LY’s QB’s also return.
— new HC Taylor was OC at Louisville last year.
— since 2017, Broncos are 5-8-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2017, Broncos are 18-26-2 ATS in MAC games.
— WMU is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in last five bowls, after losing first six bowls.

 

[Cnotes53]

Big X football knowledge​

Baylor
— last four years, Baylor is 31-19 SU (+33 in turnovers)
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line; 2 of 3 starters will be transfers.
— junior QB has 15 starts.
— last two years, Bears are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— last four years, Baylor is 8-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bears are 3-2 SU in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of 5 games.

Brigham Young
— 29-9 SU last three years; this is their first year in Big X.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line— added transfers on OL
— senior QB Slovis has thrown 1,268 passes, 68 TD’s at USC/Pitt.
— under Sitake, BYU is 23-30 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2015, BYU is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— BYU is 3-2 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.

Central Florida
— Last six years, UCF is 59-17 SU, 37-37-2 ATS.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line- good depth
— senior QB Plumlee has 22 starts between UCF/Ole Miss.
— last 10 years, Knights are 12-23 ATS coming off a loss.
— in his career, Malzahn is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog, 9-14 as a road dog.
— Central Florida is 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowls.

Cincinnati
— Last 4 years, Bearcats were 53-11 SU/33-30-1 ATS
— New coach Satterfield was 26-24 SU/26-22-2 ATS at Louisville.
— 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 20 starts back on offensive line; not much experience.
— senior QB Jones started 7 games at Arizona State LY.
— last five years, Cincinnati was 18-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— in his career, Satterfield is 16-8 ATS as road favorite, 9-13-2 as a road dog.
— Cincinnati lost its last three bowls; favorites covered 4 of their last 5 bowls.

Houston
— went 20-7 last two years, after going 7-13 in 2019-20.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 140 starts back on offensive line- should be improved.
— junior QB Smith started 8 games at Texas Tech
— in his career, Holgorsen is 27-42-1 ATS in home games.
— under Holgorsen, Houston is 5-14 ATS at home.
— Cougars are 3-2 SU/2-2-1 ATS in last five bowl games.

Iowa State
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers has withdrawn from school (gambling charges)— Looks like starting QB will be a freshman.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— Last five years, Cyclones are 11-16 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2016, Iowa State is 11-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— since 2015, Iowa State is 29-15-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).

Kansas
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back
— junior QB has started 18 games.
— last 10 years, Kansas is 21-32-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Jayhawks were 3-0 as a home favorite LY (4-11 from 2013-21)
— last four years, Jayhawks are 13-21-1 ATS in Big X games.
— Kansas won 3 of last 4 bowls (lost 55-53 (+2.5) to Arkansas LY)

— College Football Trend of the Day: Since 2016, Arizona State is 3-10 ATS as a road favorite.

Kansas State
— under Klieman, K-State is 30-20 SU, 32-18 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 108 starts back on offensive line; all 5 starters are back
— junior QB has started 15 games.
— under Klieman, K-State is 15-7 ATS as a favorite.
— under Klieman, K-State is 14-9 ATS as an underdog.
— Wildcats are 3-2 SU in last five bowls (favorite covered last four)

Oklahoma
— Sooners were 6-7 LY, after going 97-22 the previous nine years.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 147 starts back on OL; should be much better
— junior QB Gabriel started 12 games LY, also started at UCF
— UCF visits Norman October 21st.
— last two years, Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 10 years, Sooners are 23-15 ATS in non-conference games.
— Oklahoma is 2-3 SU/4-1 ATS in last five bowls (average total, 78.2)

Oklahoma State
— Cowboys were 7-6 LY, their worst season since 2018.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 129 starts back on offensive line; improvement is expected.
— senior QB Bowman has 5,329 passing yards and 34 passing TD’s in his career.
— He comes to OSU after playing at Texas Tech/Michigan.
— Under Gundy, Cowboys are 47-31-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2016, OSU is 20-6 ATS outside the Big X.
— Cowboys are 3-2 in last five bowls, winning by 5-3-2 points.

Texas
— Texas is 13-12 last two years, after going 25-12 from 2018-20.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 10 games last year.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 9-4 ATS at home, 3-6 on road.
— In his career, Sarkisian is 9-18 ATS as road dog, 10-5 as home dog.
— Since 2016, Texas is 17-7 ATS outside the Big X.
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.

TCU
— TCU was 13-2 LY, after going 23-24 from 2018-21.
— 3 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line.
— Horned Frogs will have a new, less experienced QB this year.
— since 2020, TCU is 6-1-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2014, TCU is 18-12-2 ATS outside the Big X.
— last ten years, Horned Frogs are 17-25 ATS coming off a loss.
— TCU won 3 of last 4 bowls, but lost national title game 65-7 in January.

Texas Tech
— Tech went 7-6/8-5 last 2 years (43-54 from 2013-20)
— 11 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 142 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 16 games
— last four years, Tech is 5-11 ATS as a road underdog.
— last two years, Red Raiders are 8-3 ATS coming off a loss.
— Tech won last two bowls as an underdog; scored 34-34-42 in last three.

West Virginia
— WVU is 22-25 SU/ATS in four years under Brown.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line
— whoever QB is will be inexperienced.
— Under Brown, WVU is 13-16 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Brown, WVU is 6-13 ATS coming off win, 14-10 off a loss.
— West Virginia is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in its last five bowls

 

[Cnotes53]

Mountain West football knowledge………​

Air Force
— Last four years, Air Force is 34-11 SU, 3-0 in bowls.
— Wake Forest was 19-8 SU the last 2 years; why would he leave?
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— whoever the new QB is has to replace a 3-year starter.
— Air Force has been favored in 34 of its last 45 games.
— In his career, Calhoun is 35-26-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.

Boise State
— Last nine years, Boise State is 86-28 SU.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started 10 games.
— Last four years, Boise is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2018, Broncos are 26-14-1 ATS in conference games.
— Last three years, Boise is 7-13 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2017, Broncos are 2-1 SU in bowls, also had 2 bowls cancelled.

Colorado State
— Last five years, Colorado State is 14-38 SU.
— During those five years, Rams are minus-30 in turnovers.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 46 starts back on offensive line, but only one starter is back.
— soph QB Millen has 10 career starts
— Since 2017, Colorado State is 5-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Rams lost their last four bowls, giving up 41.3 ppg.
— Their last bowl win was in 2013, 48-45 over Washington State.

Fresno State
— Last six years, Bulldogs are 49-24 SU.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 11 games at Central Florida.
— Under Tedford, Bulldogs are 10-3-1 ATS as an underdog.
— In his college career, Tedford is 42-31 ATS as a home favorite.
— Fresno won its last four bowl games, scoring 30.8 ppg.
— Tedford was Aaron Rodgers’ college coach at Cal.

Hawai’i
— last three years, Rainbows are 14-21 SU.
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 67 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 13 career starts.
— Since 2019, Rainbows are 11-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Since 2014, Hawai’i is 7-22-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last five years, Hawai’i is 11-17 ATS as a road underdog.
— Hawai’i won three of its last four bowl games.

Nevada
— Nevada was 2-10 LY, after four straight winning seasons.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 38 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 12 games at Colorado.
— Since 2017, Wolf Pack is 11-17 ATS outside the Mountain West.
— Since 2015, Nevada is 36-28 ATS inside the Mountain West.
— Since 2016, Nevada is 15-21 ATS coming off a win.
— Nevada is 3-2 SU in last five bowls, wasn’t favored in any of them.

— Movie of the Day— Shopgirl (2005)— Story about a love triangle between a bored salesgirl, a wealthy businessman and an aimless young man.
Steve Martin is the businessman; he wrote the novel this movie is based on. Claire Danes is the salesgirl, Bridgette Wilson-Sampras is one of her co-workers— she is married in real life to Pete Sampras, the tennis star.
This is a good movie, a nice movie, little sad at times; Steve Martin is a brilliant guy, this is another example of that.

— NFL Trend of the Day— Since 2016, Jets are 17-29-2 ATS as a road underdog.

UNLV
— Last nine years, UNLV is 29-74 SU.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line, but there isn’t much depth.
— soph QB has 12 career starts.
— New coach Odom is 17-11 ATS in home games, 6-13 ATS on road.
— Since 2014, Rebels are 19-32 ATS at home.
— Rebels haven’t been to a bowl game since 2013.
— UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.

New Mexico
— Last six years, Lobos are 15-52 SU/19-47-1 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 25 games at UAB.
— Since 2015, New Mexico is 4-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last six years, Lobos are 14-34 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last two years, New Mexico was 2-13-1 ATS in Mountain West games.
— New Mexico hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2016.

San Diego State
— Last eight years, Aztecs are 74-30 SU
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 53 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— Last eight years, San Diego State is 16-10-1 ATS as road favorite.
— Since 2013, Aztecs are 10-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Aztecs are 18-32 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite.
— San Diego State is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)

San Jose State
— last 3 years, Spartans are 19-13 SU (27-59 from 2013-19)
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i.
— Since 2014, Spartans are 16-24 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Brennan, San Jose is 17-13-1 ATS at home.
— Last five years, San Jose is 23-16 ATS in Mountain West games.
— Spartans lost last two bowls; their last bowl win was in 2015.

Utah State
— Utah State is 17-10 SU in two years under Anderson.
— 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 32 starts back on offensive line; very inexperienced.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— Over last 10 years, Aggies are 25-14-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Over last 10 years, Aggies are 5-13 ATS as a home underdog.
— In 2018, Aggies were +14 in turnovers; since then, they’re minus-17
— Utah State is 3-2 SU in its last five bowl games.

Wyoming
— Last three years, Cowboys are 16-16 SU/15-16-1 ATS
— 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 52 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 12 career starts.
— Under Bohl, Wyoming is 30-21-1 ATS at home.
— Since 2016, Cowboys are 21-14 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2018, Wyoming is 6-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— Wyoming won/covered three of its last four bowl games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Looking at college QB transfers, and some other stuff​

— By my count, there are 68 college football teams in the Power 5 conferences. Of those 68 teams, 36 of them are slated to start a QB this season who began his college career somewhere else, then transferred to that school (not counting junior college transfers).

Information is courtesy of the Phil Steele college football magazine, an excellent resource:

SEC
Alabama— Buchner, 3 starts at Notre Dame
Auburn— Thorne, 25 starts at Michigan State
Florida— Mertz, 32 starts at Wisconsin
Kentucky— Leary, 26 starts at NC State.
LSU— Daniels, 29 starts at Arizona State
Ole Miss— Dart, 6 games at USC
South Carolina— Rattler, 17 starts at Oklahoma
Tennessee— Milton, 16 games at Michigan.

Big 14
Illinois— Altmyer, one start at Ole Miss
Indiana— Jackson, 3 games at Tennessee
Iowa— McNamara, 16 starts at Michigan
Nebraska— Sims, 23 starts at Georgia Tech
Northwestern— Bryant, 11 starts at Cincinnati
Purdue— Card, 5 starts at Texas
Wisconsin— Mordecai, 24 starts at SMU

ACC
Georgia Tech— King, 7 starts at Texas A&M
Louisville— Plummer, 12 starts at Cal
NC State— Armstrong, 30 starts at Virginia
Pitt— Jurkovec, 24 starts at Boston College
Virginia— Muskett, 23 starts at I-AA Monmouth
Virginia Tech— Drones, 5 games at Baylor

Big X
BYU— Slovis, 38 starts at USC/Pitt.
UCF— Plumlee, 9 starts at Ole Miss
Cincinnati— Jones, 7 starts at Arizona State
Houston— Smith, 8 starts at Texas Tech
Oklahoma— Gabriel, 26 starts at UCF
Oklahoma State— Bowman, 26 games at Texas Tech/Michigan
Texas Tech— Shough, 7 starts at Oregon.

Pac-12
Arizona— DeLaura, 15 starts at Washington State
Arizona State— Pyne, 10 starts at Notre Dame
California— Jackson, 7 games at TCU
Oregon— Nix, 34 starts at Auburn
Oregon State— Uiagalelei, 28 starts at Clemson
USC— Williams, 7 starts at Oklahoma
Washington— Penix, 17 starts at Indiana.

 

[Udog]

UTEP is 34-60 ATS (-32 Units) in the first month of the season since 1992.


MASSACHUSETTS are 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.


SAN DIEGO ST is 84-44 Under (35.6 Units) in the first half of the season since 1992.


VANDERBILT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in the first half of the season in the last 3 seasons.


LOUISIANA TECH is 9-1 Over (7.9 Units) in home games in home games in the last 3 seasons.


Lincoln Riley is 19-7 ATS (11.3 Units) in home games at home when the total is 63+ (All games)




NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 0

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 0

Saturday, August 26

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 0

August 26

Navy vs Notre Dame (@ Ireland)
Navy
— Navy was 11-23 SU last three years; new coach was DC last year.
— Newberry has never been a head coach before.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- improvement is expected.
— Unclear who QB will be.
— Last ten years, Navy is 31-21-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Last ten years, Navy is 18-13 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last five years, Middies are +15 in turnovers.
— Navy hasn’t been in a bowl since their 11-2 season in 2019.


Notre Dame
— Last six years, Notre Dame is 63-14 SU.
— LY’s offensive coordinator bolted to Alabama; new OC was TE coach.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line- new OL coach was at Wisconsin for 7 years.
— Senior QB Hartman started 45 games at Wake Forest.
— Irish were 1-4 ATS as a favorite LY (18-9-2 from 2019-21).
— Notre Dame was minus-3 in turnovers LY (+32 from 2019-21)
— Irish lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).


— Notre Dame won last five meetings (2-3 ATS)
— Last year, Irish (-16) beat Navy 35-32 (total yards: 363-335, Navy)


UTEP @ Jacksonville State
UTEP
— UTEP was 7-6/5-7 last two years (one winning season last 10 years)
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 29 starts.
— Under Dimel, Miners are 28-35 ATS on the road.
— Last three years, UTEP is 12-8 ATS in conference games.
— Last five years, UTEP is minus-43 in turnovers.
— Miners have played in one bowl since 2014 (2021 New Mexico Bowl)


Jacksonville State
— This is Jacksonville State’s first season in I-A football
— Coach is Rich Rodriguez (has coached West Va, Michigan, Arizona)
— In his career, Rodriguez is 46-54-2 ATS in home games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 43 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 22 starts.
— This is their first year in I-A, so no pointspread trends.
— Last 3 years, Gamecocks were 24-11 SU, at I-AA level.


UMass @ New Mexico State
UMass
— Last four years, UMass is 3-37 SU/13-26-1 ATS
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 87 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has 16 starts; they added a transfer QB from Georgia Tech.
— Since 2018, UMass is 7-20-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Only UMass win last year was 20-3 over I-AA Stony Brook.
— Minutemen lost their last 24 road games SU.
— UMass hasn’t been to a bowl since the 1972 Boardwalk Bowl.


New Mexico State
— Aggies went 7-6 LY (went 8-30 from 2018-21)
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- four starters are back
— junior QB has 8 starts.
— Last four years, Aggies are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— In his career, coach Kill is 22-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last year was Aggies’ first bowl since 2017.


— Aggies beat UMass last two years, 44-27/23-13.


Ohio U @ San Diego State
Ohio U
— Ohio was 10-4 last season, after going 3-9 in 2021.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they’re expected to improve.
— soph QB has started 19 games.
— since 2015, Bobcats are 13-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Bobcats are 4-10 ATS outside the MAC
— Ohio U won/covered its last four bowl games.


San Diego State
— Last eight years, Aztecs are 74-30 SU
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 53 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— Aztecs are 18-32 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite.
— Last 4 years, San Diego State is 10-7 ATS in non-conference games.
— San Diego State is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)


— Ohio (-2.5) beat San Diego State 27-0 in 2018 Frisco Bowl.
— Last two years, Mountain West teams are 5-3-2 ATS vs MAC opponents.


Hawai’i @ Vanderbilt
Hawai’i
—last three years, Rainbows are 14-21 SU.
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 67 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 13 career starts.
— Last five years, Hawai’i is 11-17 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last two years, Rainbows are 3-7 ATS out of conference.
— Hawai’i won three of its last four bowl games.


Vanderbilt
— Last four years, Vandy is 10-35 SU; last bowl was 2018.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 81 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 6 games last year.
— Last 4 years, Commodores are 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Lea, Vandy is 3-10 ATS at home, 8-3 ATS on road.
— Vandy lost last two bowls 41-17/45-38; their last bowl win was in 2013.


— Vanderbilt (-9) whacked Hawai’i 63-10 in LY’s opener.
— Since 2018, SEC teams are 10-5 ATS against Mountain West opponents.


San Jose State @ USC
San Jose State
— last 3 years, Spartans are 19-13 SU (27-59 from 2013-19)
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i.
— Since 2014, Spartans are 16-24 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last three years, San Jose is 3-6 ATS out of conference.
— Spartans lost last two bowls; their last bowl win was in 2015.


USC
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has started 21 games, is favored to win Heisman Trophy.
— In his career, Riley is 23-15 ATS as a home favorite, 5-2 at USC.
— In his career, underdog is 17-8-1 ATS in Riley’s road games.
— USC is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 3 of 5 games)
— Their last bowl win was 52-49 over Penn State in 2016 Rose Bowl


— USC (-14) beat San Jose State here two years ago.
— Pac-12 teams were 7-3 ATS vs Mountain West LY (15-25 ATS from 2017-21)


FIU @ Louisiana Tech
Florida International
— last four years, FIU is 11-31 ATS, 13-28-1 ATS
— junior QB started 10 games last year.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line, with a new OL coach
— Last four years, Panthers are 5-13 ATS as a road underdog..
— FIU was 4-4 ATS in conference LY (2-16-1 ATS from 2019-21)
— FIU lost three of last four bowls SU; they haven’t been to bowl since 2019.


Louisiana Tech
— Tech went 3-9/3-9 SU the last two years.
— junior QB started 29 games at Boise State.
— 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; one guy is in his 7th college season.
— since 2017, Bulldogs are 10-13 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2017, Bulldogs are 19-22-1 ATS in conference games.
— Tech won four of last five bowls SU (last bowl was in 2020).


— FIU (+6) beat Louisiana Tech 42-34 in OT last year.




NCAAF

Week 0

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Trend Report
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August 26

Navy @ Notre Dame
Navy
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Navy's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Navy's last 12 games when playing Notre Dame
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Notre Dame's last 5 games

Texas El Paso @ Jacksonville State
Texas El Paso
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas El Paso's last 5 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games

Massachusetts @ New Mexico State
Massachusetts
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Massachusetts's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Massachusetts's last 10 games
New Mexico State
New Mexico State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New Mexico State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Ohio @ San Diego State
Ohio
Ohio is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Ohio is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games
San Diego State
San Diego State is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 7 games at home

Hawaii @ Vanderbilt
Hawaii
Hawaii is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hawaii's last 8 games
Vanderbilt
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vanderbilt's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vanderbilt's last 6 games at home

San Jose State @ Southern California
San Jose State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Jose State's last 6 games
San Jose State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Southern California
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern California's last 5 games
Southern California is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose State

Florida International @ Louisiana Tech
Florida International
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida International's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Florida International's last 24 games on the road
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana Tech's last 5 games at home


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