Cnotes College Football News-Notes-Rumors-Best Bets 2025-2026 !

[Cnotes53]

Notes on football teams in the SEC:

— Alabama
Last five years, Alabama is 37-26 (58.7%) against spread.
New QB Simpson threw only 25 passes as the backup LY.
Had only 25 sacks last year, their fewest since 2013.

— Arkansas
Arkansas has only 3 starters back on offense, 3 more on defense.
Hogs gained 459.5 yards/game last year, #10 in country.
Arkansas allowed 246.9 passing yards/game (#110)

— Auburn
Auburn scored only 19.1 ppg in its SEC games (2-6) last year
Tigers had a minus-9 turnover ratio (#119)
Auburn was 1-3 LY in games decided by 7 or fewer points.

— Florida
Six starters back on offense, seven on defense, a lot for an SEC team.
Gators have four starters back on the offensive line.
Florida was helped last year by its +6 turnover ratio (#35)

— Georgia
Last two years, Dawgs are only 9-17 ATS
Georgia has only seven of 22 starters back from LY.
Dawgs ran ball for only 124.4 yards/game LY, #102 in country.

— Kentucky
Wildcats have only 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Kentucky missed a bowl LY for first time in nine years.
Wildcats threw ball for only 184.8 yards/game LY (#112)

— LSU
Only six of 22 starters are back, only one on offensive line.
Gave up 364.4 yards/game LY, #61 in country. Mediocre.
QB Nussmeier is in his 5th year; his dad is the Saints’ offensive coordinator. .

— Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin has a 44-18 record in five years with the Rebels.
Ole Miss has only five of 22 starters back this year.
Rebels scored 38.6 ppg LY, #3 in country.

— Mississippi State
Bulldogs were 2-10 LY, including a 41-17 home loss to Toledo.
Miss State allowed 216.9 rushing yards/game (#129)
Bulldogs have only three starters back on defense.

— Missouri
Tigers have 7 starters back on defense, only 4 on offense.
Mizzou allowed only 317.5 yards/game LY, #17 in country.
Tigers don’t play a road game until October 18, at Auburn.

— Oklahoma
Sooners have a new OC, who is 29; he brought the QB from Wazzu with him.
Oklahoma gained only 331 yards/game LY, #113 in country.
Oklahoma has only three starters back on offense.

— South Carolina
Gamecocks allowed only 18.1 ppg LY, #12 in country.
South Carolina has a new punter, kicker, long snapper, holder for kicks.
Gamecocks haven’t won a league title since they won the ACC in 1969.

— Tennessee
New QB Aguilar is a transfer from Appalachian State, via UCLA.
Aguilar threw for 6,700+ yards, 56 TD’s in two years at App State.
Vols have 7 starters back from a defense that allowed 16.1 ppg LY (#7 in country)

— Texas
Only 3 starters back on offense; Arch Manning is the new QB.
Texas ranked 71st in country in rushing yards LY; they’ve got 4 new starters on OL
First 4 weeks in October; three road games, and the Oklahoma game in Dallas.

— Texas A&M
Have six starters back on offense, seven on defense.
Aggies ran ball for 195.5 yards/game LY (#26); they’ve got 4 starters back on OL
A&M lost four of last four games LY, after a 7-1 start.

— Vanderbilt
Last year’s 7-6 season was their best since 2013.
Vandy brought in six transfers who play on OL, to protect QB Pavia.
Someone offered Pavia $4M to bolt to their school; he declined the offer.

 

[Cnotes53]

Notes for Big X football teams:

Arizona
Wildcats have had only one winning season the last seven years.
Arizona won four of its last five bowl games SU

Arizona State
Coach Dillingham is 7-1 ATS as a favorite.
Since 2017, Sun Devils are 41-27 ATS in league games, 9-16-1 in non-league games.

Baylor
Last four years, Bears are 10-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Baylor has 73 starts back on offensive line, which is good- they were 8-5 last year, only their second winning season the last five years.

Brigham Young
Coach Sitake is 17-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Coach Sitake is 27-35 as a favorite.

Central Florida
Since 2019, Knights are 7-16 ATS as a road favorite.
Coach Frost is 12-6 ATS as a road underdog. He is back at UCF this year after he had previously coach the Knights in 2016-17.

Cincinnati
Last two years, Bearcats are 8-16 SU; their last bowl win was in 2019.
Coach Satterfield is 17-9 ATS as a road favorite.

Colorado
Under Coach Sanders, Colorado is 9-3 ATS as an underdog.
Last two years, Buffaloes were +21 in turnovers.

Houston
Coach Fritz is 44-27 ATS as a favorite.
Last three years, Houston was 9-16-1 in conference games.

Iowa State
Coach Campbell is 25-14-2 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2015, Cyclones are 35-17-1 ATS coming off a loss.

Kansas
Last two years, Jayhawks are 8-3 ATS as an underdog.
Kansas won 4 of its last 5 bowl games, scoring 42 ppg, but only two of those five bowls have been played since 2008.

K-State
Coach Klieman is 25-13 ATS in home games.
Since 2016, Wildcats are 27-13 ATS coming off a loss.

Oklahoma State
Cowboys were 3-9 LY, missing a bowl for first time in 19 years.
OSU is 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a home dog, 24-9 ATS in last 33 non-league games.

TCU
Since 2018, Horned Frogs are 5-11-1 as a road underdog.
TCU has 3 starters/93 starts back on OL; they were 9-4 LY, despite a -6 turnover ratio.

Texas Tech
Last four years, Red Raiders are 16-6 ATS coming off a loss
Coach McGuire is 9-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Tech has 136 starts back on the offensive line; very experienced.

Utah
Coach Whittingham is 39-26 ATS as an underdog.
Utes lost their last five bowl games; they were favored in three of the five games.

West Virginia
Coach Rodriguez is 20-31 ATS as a road underdog.
Last five years, Mountaineers are 13-4 ATS as a home favorite.

 

[Cnotes53]

Trends for SEC football teams​

SEC football notes:

— Alabama
Since 2020, they’re 22-9-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last seven years, Crimson Tide is +57 in turnovers.

— Arkansas
Pittman is 19-11 ATS as an underdog.
Razorbacks are 8-14-1 ATS last 23 games as a favorite.

— Auburn
Since 2015, Tigers are 21-30-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Auburn lost its last four bowl games (favored in 3 of the 4)

— Florida
Napier is 12-18-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Napier is 23-10-1 ATS as an underdog.

— Georgia
Last four years, Dawgs were 8-16-1 ATS as home favorites.
Georgia is 4-11-1 ATS in last sixteen non-conference games.

— Kentucky
Last four years, Wildcats are minus-22 in turnovers.
Since 2019, Kentucky is 17-10-1 ATS as an underdog.

— LSU
Under Kelly, LSU is 14-6 ATS at home.
Tigers won five of last six bowl games, scoring 44.5 ppg.

— Ole Miss
Last two years, Rebels were 21-5 SU (+21 turnovers)
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 10-5-1 as a road favorite.

— Miss State
Last two years, Bulldogs are 7-17 SU
Since 2019, MSU is 2-13-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.

— Missouri
Last two years, Tigers were 21-8 SU (+18 turnovers)
Last three years, Mizzou is 10-4 ATS on the road.

— Oklahoma
Last four years, Sooners are 3-10-1 ATS as road favorites.
Last three years, Oklahoma is 10-15-1 ATS in conference games.

— South Carolina
Coach Beamer is 14-6 ATS as a favorite.
Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.

— Tennesssee
Since 2020, Tennessee is 4-14 ATS as an underdog.
Under Heupel, Vols are 15-8 ATS as a home favorite.

— Texas
Since 2016, Longhorns are 23-12-1 ATS in non-league games.
Coach Sarkisian is 10-18 ATS as a road underdog.

— Texas A&M
Coach Elko is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite, 2-6 as a road favorite.
Aggies are 3-10-2 ATS in their last fifteen road games.

— Vanderbilt
Since 2020, Vandy is 15-8 ATS as a road underdog.
Commodores are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 home games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s Den: Trends for teams in the Big Ten Conference​

Trends for football teams in the Big Ten (Big 18) Conference:

— Illinois
Since 2017, they’re 9-16-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, they’re 26-35 ATS coming off a loss.
In his career, Bielema is 27-17-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— Indiana
Cignetti is 23-8 ATS as a favorite.
Indiana was 11-2 SU last year, +15 in turnovers.
From 2021-23, Indiana was 9-27, minus-22 in turnovers.

— Iowa
Since 2014, Hawkeyes are 21-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Ferentz is 18-13-2 ATS as a home underdog.

— Maryland
Since 2017, Terrapins are 17-7 ATS in non-conference games.
In his career, Locksley is 11-22 ATS as a road underdog.

— Michigan
Michigan was 8-5 SU last year (40-3 SU from 2021-23)
Wolverines are 7-11-2 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.
Since 2019, Michigan is 31-20-3 ATS in conference games.

— Michigan State
Last three years, Spartans went 5-7/4-8/5-7 (minus-18 in turnovers)
In his career, Jonathan Smith is 16-9 ATS as a road underdog.

— Minnesota
In his career, Fleck is 25-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Gophers won/covered their last five bowl games.

— Nebraska
Ruhle is 34-19-1 ATS as an underdog, 13-7 as a home dog, 11-5 as a road favorite.
Since 2015, Nebraska is 25-37-3 ATS at home.

— Northwestern
Since 2021, Wildcats are 2-8 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Wildcats are 23-14 ATS as a road underdog.
Northwestern won its last five bowl games (was underdog in 3 of the 5)

— Ohio State
Ryan Day is 26-16 ATS as a home favorite.
In their last 131 games, Buckeyes are 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
Former NFL coach Matt Patricia is Ohio State’s new defensive coordinator.

— Oregon
Last three years, Oregon is 26-15 ATS.
Ducks are 9-3 ATS as a road favorite in conference games.
Oregon is 14-4 ATS as a single digit favorite in conference games.

— Penn State
Last three years, PSU is 34-8 SU (+11/+16/+11 in turnovers)
Since 2021, Penn State is 16-8-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Overall, Nittany Lions are 27-11-1 ATS in last 39 games as a favorite.

— Purdue
Last three years, Purdue was 2-15 ATS at home.
Since 2016, Purdue is 5-16 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, new coach Odom is 20-13 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2020, Boilermakers are 14-28 ATS in conference games.

— Rutgers
Since 2021, Scarlet Knights are 12-3 ATS in non-conference games.
In his career, Schiano is 36-22-3 ATS as a road underdog.

— USC
In his career, Riley is 29-19 ATS as a home favorite, 9-21-1 as a road favorite.
Since 2021, Trojans are 14-23 ATS in conference games.

— UCLA
Since 2015, Bruins are 14-27 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Bruins are 10-20-1 ATS in non-conference games.
UCLA lost three of last four bowl games, giving up 37.8 ppg.

— Washington
Since 2018, Washington is 22-38 ATS in conference games.
Since 2015, Huskies are 8-14 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, under is 24-11 in Washington’s away games.

— Wisconsin
Since 2018, Wisconsin is 16-24 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Badgers are 23-11 ATS as a road favorite.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday’s Den: Trends for Mountain West football teams……..​

Air Force
Falcons are 14-7-1 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Since 2015, Air Force is 16-26-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Air Force won/covered its last five bowl games.

Boise State
Since 2019, Boise State is 41-24-2 ATS in Mountain West games.
Broncos are 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
Boise State is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.

Colorado State
Last year was Rams’ first winning season since 2017.
Last three years, Colorado State is 4-10 ATS in non-conference games.
Rams are 0-5 SU/ATS in their last five bowl games.

Fresno State
Since 2016, Bulldogs are 8-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2017, Fresno is 21-13-1 ATS in non-conference games.
New coach went 60-11 at I-AA North Dakota State, winning two national titles.

Hawaii
Since 2015, Rainbows are 9-21-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Hawaii is 17-28 ATS in its last 45 road games.
Last three years, Rainbows are 14-8-1 ATS in conference games.

Nevada
Last three years, Wolf Pack was 2-21 SU/8-14-1 ATS in conference games.
Nevada is 3-2 SU in last five bowls (underdog in 4 of 5, pick ‘em in the 5th)
Since 2016, Wolf Pack is 17-23-1 ATS in games coming off a win.

UNLV
Last two years, Rebels were 9-5/11-3 SU; from 2015-22, they were 27-63.
In his career, Dan Mullen is 49-34-1 ATS at home.
Last three years, UNLV is 13-2 ATS in non-conference games.

New Mexico
Lobos have had eight consecutive losing seasons.
New Mexico is 9-21-2 ATS in its last 32 conference games.
Lobos haven’t been to a bowl game since 2016.
Last time they went to a bowl outside of New Mexico? 2004.

San Diego State
Last four years, Aztecs are 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Aztecs are 16-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2015, San Diego State is 26-17-1 ATS as an underdog.

San Jose State
Last two years, San Jose State is 8-4 ATS as a favorite.
Spartans lost their last four bowls; they were favored in all four.
In his career, coach Niumatalolo is 34-20 ATS as a road dog.

Utah State
Last three years, Aggies went 6-7/6-7/4-8 SU.
Since 2016, Utah State is 20-8-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, coach Mendenhall is 57-37-1 ATS in non-conference games.

Wyoming
Cowboys were 3-9 LY, just their second losing season in eight years.
Since 2016, Wyoming is 19-7 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2016, Cowboys are 29-18-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.