College and HSF plan for 10/5-10/8

Riff-Raff

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Record To Date:

College Foots: 38-31-2 (-1.6 units)

HSF: 18-14-1 (-0.2 units)

Gotta break outta this stalemate quandary I find myself in!

For 10/5

Georgia Southern - 8 over Arkansas St....... 3 units..... .LOSS......... *Two Sun Belt teams meeting for the first time in the Sun Belt, both have productive winning history.

Coach Willie Fritz who built Southerns running game over the years to where this program lead the NCAA in rushing averaged 363 yards per game ly moved on to Tulane. He left behind a cabinet of offense with 8 returning starters, including the #1 Rb Matt Breida, top 2 Wrs, and 2 athletic Qbs, who share duties running the Triple Option, which has been the bread and butter identity for many successful years. New Coach T. Summers comes over from UCF where he was D Coordinator in 2014 and D Coordinator at Colorado St last year. He was brought in to try and improve a defense that ranked 21st in the nation ly. No doubt that this game is a step to winning the Sun Belt this year, and the team has got off to a good start; winning 24-9 against S. Alabama and 23-21 against ULM. The Eagles are strong again in the run department currently ranked 4th in the nation rushing for 317.8 yards per game. The main concern is the secondary that lost everyone from ly, however, the front 7 only lost 1 starter and DE is highly thought of on NFL Draft boards. Eagles won the Sun Belt in 2014,but was pushed out of the way ly by none other than the Arkansas St Red Wolves.

Arkansas St comes in reeling 0-4. While they are the defending Sun Belt Champs, this year struggles include a Defense that gives up 6.3 yards per play. Offense has been sluggish too, only averaging 16.8 ppg. Granted their strength of schedule includes a loss to Auburn, Toledo, and Utah St, however, last weeks game against C. Arkansas saw a loss on their field 28-23.... which was the first win for C. Arkansas against an FBS school. Further cause for concern is a Defense giving up 6.3 yards per play. The offense also rank last in 3rd down efficiency. Ground game averages 2.3 yards per carry. The one bright spot has been the emergence of QB Hansen, who is completing 58.1% of his passes. Hansen is a pocket passer who isn't much of a threat to take off. This could be a huge problem for a Defensive minded coach who will no doubt dial up Blitz packages to make things a nightmare for Red Wolves.

I realize that there is some pride in being the defending Champs of the Sun Belt, I just can't see the offense scoring much and expect the Southern ground game to chew up a lot of turf.

Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in last 5 road games in the Sun Belt

Arkansas St is 0-5 ATS last 5 overall.

My money is with the visitors tonight... Gl.
 
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Riff-Raff

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I got caught up in the Wildcard game and saw Southern with a 9 point lead and driving in the 4th. Come back later and see Red Wolves pulled it out... Whatever.

For Thurs

HSF Degenerates...

Skyline -2' over Bothell.... 1 unit.......
..... WIN....... Two up and comers from WA go at it to see who will most likely win the league. Both teams come in at 4-2 and both teams sport nearly identical stats, with Skyline PF 139..... Bothell 140
Skyline PA 96........Bothell 98

Skyline is a perennial powerhouse and has already revenged last seasons loss in the state championship to Gonzaga Prep. Skyline did lose their starting QB, RBs, and WRs... although they tend to reload in the skill positions they still have several OLinemen opening holes that are bound for Div 1 programs. Skyline averages 27.8 ppg to some "better" competition.

Bothell averages 28 ppg, but again to some inferior comp. They recognize that the league champion is probably the winner of the match up.

Skyline outclassed Bothell in last years contest 56-25. I kinda think the same thing may happen based on strengths of schedule. Play Skyline minus ➖ the small number.


Thurs College Plays:

1. Memphis / Temple Under 60'.... 4 units...LOSS..(not sure exactly what happened here, bet was looking good for 3 quarters, then both teams score 28 in the 4th.. OK).... . 2 pretty good Defenses line up against each other in Thursday night contest. Tigers are holding opponents to 18.8 ppg. which is good for 25th ranked in the nation. Last week was Tigers first black eye to a good Ole Miss team. Memphis has been averaging 45.8 ppg, in addition, Memphis average 308.5 yards w/11 tds through the air.

Temple has the 13th ranked defense against the pass. This team got off to a rather slow start offensively ranking 100th in the nation. They average a measly 350.2 total offense pg. Temple Defense is only allowing 318.4 yards and 20.4 ppg......albeit to some very "offensive" teams (forgive the pun as I take liberty). In the AAC, Temple leads in passing D only giving 99.24 yards pg taking into account that Army on schedule helps bring the numbers down.

While Temple is improving each week, this is a bad spot against a very good Memphis. Still, I think Owl secondary can keep the big plays to a minimum. I have this capped at 52, so I will stick with the under.
 
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Riff-Raff

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10/6 College (cont)
Hilltoppers TT Over 35....WINNER.. .. 3 units
*Western Kentucky comes in averaging 44.3 ppg. By the same token LA Tech averages 37.5 ppg. Tech has a tendency to give up large chunks of yardage through the air. (Just look at Texas Tech and Middle Tenn St) In last year's battle, Hilltoppers won 41-38,but with a QB that is now playing on Sundays. Against a very good Defensive squad in Vandy, WKU had 501 total yards of offense.

The replacement at QB, Mike White is a transfer from So Florida and he has filled in nicely for departed Brandon Doughty. The key stat I'm looking at here is LA Tech ranks 111th in passing defense. Both teams have some great WRs on the field and this one could repeat as a shootout, but I like my chances of WKU getting to 35 in this one. Gl

Note : I'm changing some things with my time. I haven't been putting in full time to the AA FCS schools, which I need to do. Hopefully will have all games for this weekend posted tomorrow. We shall see...
 
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Riff-Raff

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2 HSF PLAYS for menyana....

1. Upland Highlanders +7 vs Rancho Cucamonga..... 1 unit...
LOSS... .. *Cougars and Scots go at it for what could be the league crown. Course are perfect 5-0 while Upland is 3-2. Big rivalry game (just ask my pal who is from the region) Rancho offense average 38.2 ppg, while Scots average 30.6 ppg. To Date, defensively Rancho has been stingy only allowing 68 points total on the season. Upland gives up 165.

I know your thinking Riff what gives, shouldn't Rancho win this? Yeah maybe, however, Upland lost their 2 games to 2 powerhouse programs (one from Arizona currently nationally ranked) (the second was to Mater Dei losing 62-7, which is also nationally ranked and could probably beat Bishop Gorman on a good night) This is a huge rivalry and no doubt Upland will have to contain speedster RB Jayson Redd who is dangerous and averages 150.8 yards per game, while scoring 13.2 ppg. Both Qbs stats are nearly identical.

Rancho was lucky to escape with a win last week 17-14 to mediocre program, Redd still got 144 yards and 1 TD.

Upland won last years game 31-21 at Rancho, but this is at home for Upland and they would like nothing better to dethrone the perfect season Cougs are having. I took the 7 as this one could come down to turn overs. I thought hard about the under too, but this will suffice.

2. Mercer Island - 3' over Redmond...... ***3 units played...LOSS..... (Wow, not at all the result I had intended. When I saw the line going up, I thought we had it in the bank. Mercer jumped out to the early lead and then proceeded to tank. Oh well, it's just High school football, but I thought I had capped this one right.. My apologies) and *First of all, I'm not really sure how this made Degenerates Rotation. Somebody must be from Washington who sets these lines. This is my strongest rated game thus far and I think it's a gift.

Islanders (yes Im not making this up... That's their Mascot) come in 3-2 while Redmond is 2-3. Both teams have struggled defensively, MI allowing 29.4 ppg, Redmond giving up 27 ppg. The difference here is offensively Mercer averages 31.4 ppg, Mustangs average 17.4. MI brags Senior RB Jordano Mark, who found the end zone 3 times last week, and is highly recruited. MI does have to account for RB Joel Hargin who averages 118.5 yards per game.

Redmond has already doubled last years win total as this team won 1 game and was really never in the games they played. Mercer Island is the better team and should be favored by at least 17. I honestly don't think Redmond will win another game this season, and their 2 wins this year were nail biters to some equally bad teams. Take the gift guys!
 
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Riff-Raff

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⚠ ALERT... MERCER now at - 7

The Ole College Try for Friday 10/7

2 plays for tonight...

1. Clemson TT Over 30 against B. College....3 units...WINNER... Had a big write up and lost my material, so I'm a little ticked off,but will condense (not altogether sure anyone is reading it anywayz) *First of all, I can't bring myself to bet on anything Boston College does as this team is boring. Tigers have taken home the O'Rourke - McFadden Trophy 7 of the last 8 years.

Everyone is making a big deal about Eagles #1 ranked Defense.... However, the offense is well "offensive" ranked 113th. The game I circled was the VTech game in which Eagles got it handed to them 49-0. On closer inspection, we see that BCs other opponents aren't even ranked within the top 100. Even VTech is ranked 48th (hardly a offensive guru)

Clemson found its sea legs on offense last week against a pretty good Louisville D. Again, BC loses to VT 49-0, Clemson is better than VT. Dont need my Venn Diagram to draw this one up. Last year, BC lost to Tigers 34-17. I don't believe they will be able to match the same offensive result. But, just in case I like Clemson to clear 30. Last thought; I realize people want to point to a "hangover" from last week's showdown. My thing is Tiger QB is now a front runner for Heisman consideration, so I expect the team will be plenty motivated to help him get there. Gl


2. New Mexico +18 over Boise...... LOSS..... ..4 units. *Wasn't it just last year that Lobo made the trip to Blue Carpet and walked away with the W as a 31 point dog? Boise is tremendously overvalued going 1-3 ATS thus far.

New Mexico survived a shoot out last week against San Jose St 48-41 (I actually had the Team Total over, which was easy) This is a long different Lobo team than years past which is credited to Bob Davie bringing his personality to the team. He lead NM to a bowl game ly. The running game is strong averaging 347 yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry.

New Mexico now gets Broncos at home. Anyone who has ever played sports knows there are certain teams who always seem to have your number.... throwing most stats right out the window. We seem to be seeing this with Lobo and developing into Boise arch nemesis, going 5-0 ATS IS in last 5. While I'm not ready to throw my cash on ML here, I will take the points and hope that Lobo run keeps it in range. Gluck!

Should be back a little later with this weekends games.
 
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Riff-Raff

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Saturday plays...

1. Oklahoma /Texas Over 73.....3 units..WINNER... *It's called the Red River Shootout for a reason, first one to 100 wins.

2. Byu +5'.....4 units....WINNER... *This team makes a living at being in close games. Sparty isn't the same, and Cougs wouldn't surprise if they walked out with a W.

3. Tennessee +7.....4 units.... *It just makes sense to and a couple of good cappers are on it, so I am too!

4. Tcu TT over 45....3 units... LOSS. .. *Jayhawk can't stop anyone. TCU should be able to name the score.

5. Houston /Navy Over 51..WIN ....4 units... *Houston should continue to put up some big numbers.

6. Georgia Tech TT under 22...LOSER(Right idea, wrong day)... ..Pitts run D is very good and Paul Johnson won't throw it.

7. Auburn - 2'......5 units..WINNER.. .. *Quietly having a good year and shouldn't have any problem with a Bulldog.

8. USC /Colorado Over 63..... Both teams should score plenty.

Have a couple of FCS plays in a minute. Gl
 
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Riff-Raff

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FCS plays for Sat.

1. Rhode Island / Villanova Over 45'....2 units... LOSS

2. Colgate / Lehigh Over 68...2 units....WIN

3. Furman +7 over Samford.... 3 UNITS... LOSS

4. Marist PK over Butler... 3 UNITS... WINNER

5. Princeton - 8' over Georgetown... 2 units....WIN

Let's see how these play out. I have been capping the hell out of FCS.
 
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Riff-Raff

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Finally getting the hang of the FCS.
(All for 1 unit) (-120)

Add:

James Madison - 16...
L

Miss Valley St +51'...
L

Presbyterian /Gardner - Webb Over 33' L

Kentucky - Wesleyan +34'
L

Tenn St +10'...
W

Webber St +3'
W

Maybe not getting hang of it. Back to drawing board


Later
 
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ldabdou

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Nice Pickens today bro. I'm hoping to make it over the Harveys soon. I'll be sure to look you up!
 
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