College Ball Week 8

Mr. Poon

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Jan 14, 2006
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YTD Record: 40-29 for +19.50 units

two for today:

Virginia -130 (vs. GaTech) for 1 unit - Morey (UVa starter) hasn't been spectacular this year, but Cumpton (GaTech) starter has had a rough go of it as of late. Like UVa to get some hits off of him and chase him early.

UCLA -105 (@ Oregon St.) for 4 units - despite losing last night and in a mid-week game to Fullerton, UCLA is still worthy of their top 5 ranking and a better club all the way around. Bauer (UCLA's starter) has been pitching real well this season (2.28 ERA; .208 OBA and 59 K's in 43 1/3I IP). Considering the Beavers K almost 8 times a game, figure Bauer will be sitting them down fairly easily this afternoon.

GL guys
 

Mr. Poon

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1-1 yesterday but hit the bigger UCLA play so net +2.7 units on the day.

Today:

UCLA -115 (@ Oregon St.) for 2 units - last night's game went 16 innings and both pens are pretty much maxed out heading into today. UCLA has the much better offense, but they have the more proven starter (Rob Rasmussen; 2.95 ERA; .197 OBA and 55 K's in 36 2/3 IP). I believe the Beavers are sending Sam Gaviglio to the mound to start (1.35 ERA; .208 OBA and 11 K's in 13 1/3 IP). Gaviglio isn't a bad pitcher (Frosh all-american last season) but hasn't pitched much this year due to a hamstring injury. I expect Rasmussen to be able to go deeper in the game which will be big.

GL guys
 

Mr. Poon

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UCLA wins 8-2 as the game goes according to plan (Rasmussen with 7 IP; Gaviglio with 4 2/3 IP).

Updated Record: 42-30 for +24.20 units
 

Mr. Poon

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Two small dog plays today:

Coastal Carolina +130 (@ N. Carolina) for 2 units ? Two good offensive teams, but a bit of an edge goes to Coastal in this category. Starting pitching pits Matt Laney (Coastal) vs. Jimmy Messer (UNC). Laney started out the year as Coastal?s Sunday starter, but after 3 sub-par performances was moved to the pen. This is his first start since then (made 11 relief appearances) and he has a 4.74 ERA; 1.53 WHIP; .243 OBA and 19 K?s in 19 IP. Laney had a ERA of 6.97 and a WHIP over 2 after those 3 starts so you can see he has gotten better control in his work out of the pen. Messer has also been used as a starter and reliever this year (3 starts, 7 relief appearances). On the year Messer?s #?s are 3.79 ERA; 1.95 WHIP; .307 OBA and 11 K?s in 19 IP. Messer has been a mixed bag as a starter this year, having a stellar performance against a good Georgia Tech team as well as a quick hook his last time out against a meager Maryland club. I?ve written before how UNC has had some bullpen woes and numerous blown games. Coastal has a pretty good pen and despite the fact they played last night and UNC didn?t, they have a big advantage here.

W. Kentucky +110 (vs. Louisville) for 1 unit ? another two good offensive teams in this one and similar offensive possibilities between the two teams. Neither team has named a starter, but I?m pretty certain Brian Edelen will be taking the mound for the Hilltoppers. His numbers on the year are 2.89 ERA; 1.57 WHIP; .255 OBA and 15 K?s in 28 IP. He?s had two good, albeit short, midweek starts the last two weeks. WKU has a pretty good pen and they typically will throw a lot of guys in the midweek games. They did have a game last night (while Ville didn?t) but considering the strength of their pen, that doesn?t bother me. Ville?s pitching struggled last week giving up 8.75 runs/game in four games against decent competition (Kentucky & Pitt). I believe there is a good chance those pitching struggles continue tonight against a WKU team that has posted double-digit runs in 17 of their 35 games on the season.

GL guys
 

Mr. Poon

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Jan 14, 2006
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1-1 on the day as Coastal rolls 12-4 but WKU gets edged 7-6. Still a positive day, so nothing wrong with that.

Updated Record: 43-31 for 26.00 units
 
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