College Ball Week #9

[Mr. Poon]

YTD Record: 24-26 for +0.88 units

Got back in the black last week. Now looking to continue the positive momentum with a little over a month left in the regular season.

Ole Miss +100 (@ Georgia) for 3 units ? Bulldogs played at Clemson last night and came away with a come from behind win. Knowing they were going to be playing in 4 straight days, they used a lot of their bullpen after their starter couldn?t get out of the 2nd inning. They used 7 guys in relief so that should help them a bit, but still the team has to be taxed a little with the travel right before a big 3 game series with tonight?s game being televised. Rebels have a big edge offensively and in starting pitching. Georgia is going with Senior Michael Palazzone (5.68 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .301 OBA and 31 K?s in 38 IP) who has regressed this season compared to last year when he was consistent and the Bulldogs best pitcher. I?m really surprised Georgia is not throwing Sophomore Alex Wood who has pitched considerably better than Palazzone so far this year. Ole Miss trots out Bobby Wahl (1.94 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .196 OBA and 50 K?s in 46.1 IP) who is having a great year and is coming off two good performances against top 10 opponents in Florida and Kentucky.

 

[Mr. Poon]

I won't change what I have listed as the play, but due to swings in the lines I was able to hedge a bit. Added another unit on Ole Miss at +100 (betus) and a unit on Georgia at +130 (5dimes).

 

[jbly99]

i jumped on Ole Miss too at -135 when the line came out bc of Whal. I was actually at that Francis Marion/South Carolina game last nite...Crazy win for FMU who was opening a new stadium and bad loss to a divison 2 school by SC.

 

[Mr. Poon]

hedged another unit with Ole Miss +100 and Georgia +160. jbly - you should really look into getting a betus account.

I saw that box score of the Gamecocks loss. Did they just take them lightly and were disinterested? I read that FM team is a good DII club, but still.

 

[jbly99]

Whal just didnt have his best stuff last night and struggled to find the strike zone...Palazzone meanwhile pitched his best game of the year and didnt even get phased by that double error. That ole Miss bullpen isnt that good from what ive seen this year.

Well FMU was openning a new stadium and SC agreed to play them, (the school is about an hours drive from columbia)...hats off to Tanner for coming here to play them. The game had about 2000 people at it and FMU played great. SC had a few errors on balls hit up the middle, a 50-50 safe call on first that lead to a 3 run inning by FMU, and then a late base running error that cost them a run which would have tied the game up.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Ole Miss just couldn't get out of that 8th inning. Also they missed opportunities to really blow the game open it seemed themselves offensively.

 

[Mr. Poon]

For Friday:

Stanford -1.5 -105 (vs. Oregon) for 2 units ? Going against Ducks ace Keudell again, hopefully will fare better than last week. He?s pitted against one of the best in the country today in Stanford?s Mark Appel. I just don?t see Oregon and their average offense have the same result on the road for the second straight weekend as they did last week @ UCLA.

UVa +155 (vs. UNC) for 2 units ? UNC has the feel for a team on a steep downward slide after their sweep last week at the hands of Miami where they only mustered 3 total runs and were shut out twice. Their Friday night starter Kent Emanuel can be added to that as well as he has not pitched up to his normal stuff in recent outings. On paper his stats best UVa?s starter tonight Branden Kline, but Kline has done really well in recent outings. UVa has decided advantages offensively and defensively, so I?ll go with the home team with the starting pitcher on the upward swing here.

UGa +2.5 -300 (vs. Ole Miss) for 1 unit ? as said yesterday I thought Alex Wood is the Bulldogs best pitcher. Though Ole Miss has the edge offensively, a big edge in my mind goes to Georgia in starting pitching. Add in that Palazzone pitched a complete game, you have a fully rested bullpen for the Bulldogs. R.J. Hivey is the starter for Ole Miss, he?s a power pitcher (57 K?s in 47 IP) but has been hit hard his last two outings versus good competition (Florida and Kentucky). Bulldogs have 2 straight come from behind wins and I think they ride the momentum from that 6 run 8th inning last night to a series win tonight.

Tempted by Zona +1.5 and Arky but the prices are a bit steep for me right now. If they come down I may play those two.

 

[Mr. Poon]

really missed out on the Georgia line as it was -175 as I was doing the write-up and then it jumps up to -300.

 

[jbly99]

With u on stanford...got on uga -140...ark -120/-145 and Ariz -140

 

[Mr. Poon]

Ole Miss +290/UGa -410 - there must not be 1 bet on Ole Miss.

 

[Mr. Poon]

bad night going 1-2 missing both larger plays. For today:

Ole Miss -1.5 +105 (@ UGa) for 1 unit - neither #3 pitcher for these teams is good, but Ole Miss' is much better than what Georgia has to offer. The Rebels fight off the sweep today.

Looking into the other shortly.

 

[Mr. Poon]

adding:

another unit Ole Miss -1.5, this time at +170

UCLA -1.5 +250 (@ Zona) for 1/2 unit

 

[jbly99]

I'm rolling with ark and that's it...got a few plays in on -100s lines...love their pitcher today

 

[Mr. Poon]

Astin is good, was just too pricey for me again.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Good day yesterday going 2-0. For today:

Stanford -1.5 +100 (vs. Oregon) for 2 units

 

[Mr. Poon]

One more:

Fullerton -135 (@ Irvine) for 1 unit

 

[Mr. Poon]

another 2-0 day to grind to a slightly positive position for the weekend.

Updated Record: 29-29 for +1.78 units

 

[Mr. Poon]

for Friday:

ASU -150 (vs. Zona) for 1 unit ? Wildcats have a decided edge on offense. However, their defense has become a liability and cost them in a few close games recently. Also their pitching behind Heyer is nowhere as strong as ASU?s staff (behind Rogers for that matter). Zona has not named a starter, but the guys that have started mid-week games for them recently have not fared well. ASU is going with Junior Alex Blackford. Blackford has not had good stats this season (5.23 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, .271 OBA and 30 K?s in 32.2 IP). Not generally my style to go with a struggling pitcher against a squad that is better offensively, however I think Blackford is on the upswing. After struggling mightily once the Sun Devils got into conference play, he?s been given more rest of late. He had a good outing in his start last week vs. a decent New Mexico club, and didn?t pitch relief the last two weekends vs. conference competition. Blackford was a solid arm for ASU last year and has the potential to post a good outing today and get the Sun Devils a W against their in-state rival.

A&M +170 (vs. Rice) for 1 unit ? Aggies are better offensively, Rice has the edge defensively and their pitching staffs behind their weekend starters are pretty even. Rice hasn?t named a starter and A&M is going with frosh Gandy Stubblefield. Stubblefield (3.54 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, .250 OBA and 14 K?s in 20.1 IP) has settled into the midweek starter role for A&M, getting the nod the last 3 weeks in that position. Though the competition hasn?t been noteworthy, his performances have been a lot better giving up only 4 ER in 12.1 IP.

 

[Mr. Poon]

A&M gives up an early lead to lose 5-4 but ASU has a heck of a comeback eventually winning 12-8. 1-1 on the day.

 

[jbly99]

Hope you got on some stuff early...i got UGA +4.5 -120 and -160...LSU +100...which i hedged with KU +195...Tex Am -160...and Ariz St +155. Cant believe i got Wood for UGA a 1st round prospect +4.5 runs at even money...thats crazy. Lines have really moved a lot!