College FB Picks (9/15-9/17), YTD 10-8, +1.2 units

BGFalcon

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Jan 3, 2005
5,517
28
48
Strongsville, Ohio
MTSU -6 over Akron: MTSU blew a great opportunity to unseat North Texas as the leader in the Sun Belt. Unfortunately for them, they had too many turnovers at key times (especially the 99 yard interception return). I'm not worried about a letdown here because this team is pretty good. They definitely can move the ball and Marks is a solid QB. Defensively, they have shown an ability to stop the run not give up the big play. MTSU went to Akron last year and won. They are better this year and are playing at home. This will be a 2-unit bet for me.
 

BGFalcon

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48
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Ohio/Virginia Tech under 48: Not the greatest spot for VT with Georgia Tech coming to town next week. They should put together a solid win but nothing spectacular. Ohio, on the other hand, has got to be excited about their big win against Pitt. They should play inspired football until VT starts smacking them around. Ohio will stick to their patient offense as Solich tries to develop a certain offensive mindset. VT will be content to grind out a solid win and move on. Barring any special teams big plays, this game stays under.
 

BGFalcon

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Jan 3, 2005
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48
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North Texas/Tulsa over 46: Neither team has shown an ability to stop the run this season, which is very uncharacteristic of North Texas. Tulsa should give up over 300 yards rushing this week and NT should be able to break a couple of long ones vs. a run defense that has had to face Maroney and Peterson in the first two weeks. Tulsa hung around against Oklahoma and managed to put 15 on the board which included 3 FGs. They should be able to make those into TDs this week. I have this game in the low 50's. Call it 28-24.
 

BGFalcon

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Jan 3, 2005
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48
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Sparty +7 over Notre Dame: There are 6.5's around but you may have to buy the half to get 7. After watching Notre Dame for the past two weeks, I've come to an unpopular conclusion--they are not that good. They pounded a bad Pitt team and beat a bad Michigan team. If this game were not the home opener, I would grab the moneyline. Notre Dame's offense was shut down by Michigan's sieve-like defense after the opening drive. Charlie Weis is being touted as the next Lou Holtz because he outcoached Wannestadt and Carr? Sparty, on the other hand, is going to have to try hard not to be a major factor in the Big 10 race. Of course John L. Smith might screw it up, but MSU is throwing some athletes out on the field. If they can win this one, they will host Michigan and go to Ohio St. undefeated (they have the Illini next week). You might want to wait to see if the public drives this line a little higher but 6.5 or 7 should be enough.
 

BGFalcon

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Jan 3, 2005
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48
Strongsville, Ohio
Final two plays:

Final two plays:

Indiana/Kentucky over 50.5: Indiana couldn't stop Nicholls St. last week and we all know that Kentucky is not real interested in stopping anyone. Mix in some sloppy special teams play and several big plays and we'll see a game in the high 50's. I like Kentucky getting points but I like the over much more. Another two unit play.

Troy St. +21 over Missouri: I've been waiting for this one to get to 21 and it finally did. Troy is not a great offensive team but they should be able to keep this one within 3 TD's with their defense.

That's it for the weekend since I'm going to the Big House to watch Michigan miss a bunch of tackles.
 
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