College Football Game Future Bets

[TCSN]

Here are some future bets I put in for some upcoming college football matchups:

Arizona State -4 over Arizona (11/29/02)

Wisconsin +8.5 over Michigan (11/16/02)

 

[Marra]

I saw the same thing with that ASU game. I think it is going to be 10.

 

[TCSN]

I hope it would go that high as I'll probably middle it.

 

[Nickelback]

My two cents for the last time on this future bet:

I think its a foolish bet because nobody knows how Arizona is going to look and who will return by the time their showdown with ASU occurs. But this is the risk one takes on when they play a future bet I suppose. Still have to question why this line looks so darn good after one win against Oregon. . .

Finally, if you are concerned with a huge line movement, don't be. . . if I recall, ASU played at Arizona a few years ago when ASU was in the hunt to win the entire national championship before losing to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. . . anyways, ASU destroyed Arizona, but if I recall, the line was only around 3 to begin that game. . . maybe hit up to 5 but certainly no more than 7.

THIS IS A RIVALRY GAME! The line is not gonna move that far in ASU's direction unless every 1st stringer for U of A is expected out of the game!

Anyways, I'll be ready to go over this game in a month when it finally rolls around. . . still too early to pick a side just because ASU beat Oregon (still very impressive!)

 

[TCSN]

Thanks for your views but taking an early cheap spot is something I won't pass up.

 

[Marra]

Nickelback, easy question-

Why was the line -7 last year then?

 

[Nickelback]

Marra,

The game was at ASU! Do you not value home field advantage like Vegas does?!?! LOL, don't worry because most cappers don't (including me, I'll be the first to admit it which is part of the reason behind setting up the system that I have).

My question still stands. . . and my reasoning is solid when you consider that ASU was a much better/experienced team their Rose Bowl year and U of A was just about the same (maybe not quite as good but still roughly the same difference in perceived team skill) and the line was basically the same as it stands right now.

Why was the line so low? Here's why:

1. Arizona usually plays ASU very tough. . . especially when ASU has had the better year.

2. This is a HUGE rivalry game!

If you expect everyone to love ASU as much as you do and thus send this line skyrocketing up to 7 or beyond, you're expecting too much when this game is at Arizona this year. Doesn't matter how bad Arizona plays or how great ASU plays especially when they will have a difficult time moving into the top 10 with their two losses! The only way I see it again is key injuries to several key players on the Wildcats.

So why not wait and see what the next month brings (knowing you won't lose THAT many points in a worst case scenerio) instead of basing your decision on how U of A looks right now as banged up as they are and after ASU played the game of their life against Oregon? It just doesn't make sense to me!

Looks like I lied about my previous message being the last on this subject, but if the situation was reversed, you would likely be telling me the same thing because it would look like I'm betting with my heart and not common sense. It would look like I was valuing what happened last weekend a lot more than I should be because of my biased view. A lot can happen in a month especially given Arizona's situation with a lot of question marks that may be answered in the upcoming weeks.

 

[Marra]

Well, if home field = 4 points in the linemakers mind, that means ASU would be -7 at home again this year. Now, compare last year to this year for both teams, and they are going in completely opposite directions. The perfect example to this would be N.C. vs. N.C. State at Chapel Hill. N.C. State was -7 and won by 17. N.C. just doesnt have the athletes to hang with the better team.
I am delighted that the line is 4 right now and I hope it stays that way. I would love everyone to analyze this game the way you are doing it (no disrespect). Yes, I go to ASU, but I see tremendous value with this game at -4, not to mention a possible middle opp for those that for some reason dont see value.

When you talk about key injuries, their best offensive player (Farmer) and their 2nd best defensive player (Jolivette) are already out for the year with injuries. How many more players are going to get hurt?

Not to mention BIG TIME revenge for last year's embarrassment (and fight). Rivalry or not, ASU has the much better team and U of A isnt going to hang close in this one. BTW, FYI, the avg final score in the past 5 games has been decided by 11 points! Not that close. The closest its been in the past 5 years is 8 points.

 

[Nickelback]

Marra,

Your argument is that ASU is better than U of A. . .

My argument is the line will not change that much so taking ASU this early with so many questions and events that can occur in a month is foolish.

Your response has nothing to do with what I was getting at. . . because I agree that right now, ASU is better than U of A.

You also wrote:

"I would love everyone to analyze this game the way you are doing it (no disrespect). "

As I stated in the very first post under this thread, I will go over this game in the week prior to the game. . . I was only challenging your view that taking this future bet holds value right now, because if you have read my posts, I don't believe it when we are a month away from playing the actual game.

Best of luck to you. . . I should concern myself with this week's games instead of rehashing my thoughts on how the line will move in a game that will be played a month from now.

 

[Marra]

Nope, sorry Nickelback. Wrong. The line was -7.5 ASU the Rose Bowl year. That was after U of A had a convincing win over UCLA, and the game was in Tucson.

 

[maverick2112]

Nickleback........Marras right, I remember betting ASU -7 that yr when Plummer and company went to the rose bowl. Asu won like 31-7

 

[Nickelback]

Not gonna write another long message in this thread. . . Marra
might be right about the spread in that particular game, but that
was only one argument that I raised and it doesn't mean that one should jump on ASU over Arizona right now when there's still plenty of games to be played and questions to be resolved.

The more information we have on this game, the better. . . its just simply foolish to take a chance on it when we're five weeks away. Its a dangerous way to try and beat the man.

That's all I gotta say (this time I promise). . . better games to be concerned with this week. If you just gotta take ASU right now, roll the dice and take your chances

Go Army!

 

[TCSN]

Depending on the line, I might try a middle on the ASU game.