College Football Picks (9/21-9/23) YTD: 23-18, +1.85 units
- Thread starter BGFalcon
- Start date
bg, do you have any good info for me on MTSU?? Im looking at them due toi teh "devastatation factor" and the thought that Okla comes out extremely flat... I believe MTSU played on Friday night last week, so that gives them one extra day to prepare... Any info on that team w/ your analysis would help.
thanks
thanks
MTSU has the potential to win the Sun Belt (of course me, you and 9 other guys on this site could win it too). Their problem is that they underachieve year after year. But they seem to play well in their big out of conference games. They are catching OU in a bad spot coming off the tough loss in Oregon and looking ahead to Texas in two weeks. MTSU has been solid on defense and should be able to keep the Sooners from too many big plays. Offensively, MTSU has been so-so but the Sooner defense hasn't been great either. I think MTSU will see heavy doses of Peterson early and get an opportunity to score late against Oklahoma's AYO's. Ten points by MTSU should get the cover.
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Another one:
Another one:
Minnesota -2.5 over Purdue: Going to grab this line before it goes to 3 or more. Not impressed with either team's performance but Gophers tend to rip teams with bad defenses. Purdon't hasn't stopped anyone this year giving up 28 to Ball St., 31 to Miami and an incredible 35 to Indiana St. I'll take -2.5 now and decide on a middle attempt when it crawls up to 3.5 later in the week.
Another one:
Minnesota -2.5 over Purdue: Going to grab this line before it goes to 3 or more. Not impressed with either team's performance but Gophers tend to rip teams with bad defenses. Purdon't hasn't stopped anyone this year giving up 28 to Ball St., 31 to Miami and an incredible 35 to Indiana St. I'll take -2.5 now and decide on a middle attempt when it crawls up to 3.5 later in the week.
Write ups:
Write ups:
Arkansas St. +7 over SMU: I couldn't understand this line when it came out. SMU got smoked by North Texas two weeks ago and then is a TD favorite to a team that is as good or slightly better than NT? Other than the big numbers they put up last week against Sam Houston St., SMU has really struggled to score. Arkansas St. is no offensive juggernaut either but in a game with a total of 39, I'll gladly take the TD. Unfortunately, the 7's are gone now. Hopefully you got on this early.
MTSU +29 over Oklahoma: See earlier post.
CMU -4.5 over EMU: Another line I couldn't figure out. EMU is rotten. CMU is not. They hung on last week to beat a solid Akron team in a game that was as close as the score indicated. Of course the Zips helped out by turning it over inside the 20 twice in the first half (one INT went 100 yards the other way for 6). But CMU is showing some toughness that hasn't been there in previous years. I'm not concerned about them "letting down" since they are only 1-2. Actually, I see just the opposite--a team starting to come together a little bit. Road chalk is not always smart but it's Ypsilanti not Ann Arbor.
Write ups:
Arkansas St. +7 over SMU: I couldn't understand this line when it came out. SMU got smoked by North Texas two weeks ago and then is a TD favorite to a team that is as good or slightly better than NT? Other than the big numbers they put up last week against Sam Houston St., SMU has really struggled to score. Arkansas St. is no offensive juggernaut either but in a game with a total of 39, I'll gladly take the TD. Unfortunately, the 7's are gone now. Hopefully you got on this early.
MTSU +29 over Oklahoma: See earlier post.
CMU -4.5 over EMU: Another line I couldn't figure out. EMU is rotten. CMU is not. They hung on last week to beat a solid Akron team in a game that was as close as the score indicated. Of course the Zips helped out by turning it over inside the 20 twice in the first half (one INT went 100 yards the other way for 6). But CMU is showing some toughness that hasn't been there in previous years. I'm not concerned about them "letting down" since they are only 1-2. Actually, I see just the opposite--a team starting to come together a little bit. Road chalk is not always smart but it's Ypsilanti not Ann Arbor.
If ysg3 gets to be on your team then I want to be on it to BG! Lets take on the Sun Belt!
heres what scares me about this one
deslauriers has been absolutely dominant the last two years against the chips.
14 catches for 207 yds and 4 touchdowns in '04
10 catches for 135 yds in '05
the chips have nobody in their secondary that can guard him and he is capable of taking over the game himself.
the good news, of course, is that emich doesnt have anyone that can get him the ball consistently. jones and schmitt were godawful against northwestern.
its crazy to think that emich is the team that has given kelly the most trouble since taking over at central. he hasnt beaten them in his 2 yrs at cmu despite being chalks both times (and both in the same 3-4 pt range if memory serves correct)
like you said though - this is ypsilanti, not ann arbor. home field is nonexistent for the eagles. theyd almost be better served if this one was a pseudo-home game like it was at ford field in '04.
btw- just saw the buffalo team total at olympic.
its 3.5 :mj07: (< - no joke)
deslauriers has been absolutely dominant the last two years against the chips.
14 catches for 207 yds and 4 touchdowns in '04
10 catches for 135 yds in '05
the chips have nobody in their secondary that can guard him and he is capable of taking over the game himself.
the good news, of course, is that emich doesnt have anyone that can get him the ball consistently. jones and schmitt were godawful against northwestern.
its crazy to think that emich is the team that has given kelly the most trouble since taking over at central. he hasnt beaten them in his 2 yrs at cmu despite being chalks both times (and both in the same 3-4 pt range if memory serves correct)
like you said though - this is ypsilanti, not ann arbor. home field is nonexistent for the eagles. theyd almost be better served if this one was a pseudo-home game like it was at ford field in '04.
btw- just saw the buffalo team total at olympic.
its 3.5 :mj07: (< - no joke)
I believe you are gonna try some D1-AA?s this week. I got a question about Ball State for you or anyone who reads this?.
The line just came out for NDSU/Ball State and unbelievably NDSU is favored by -4. They are D1-AA and in there transition (were D2 2 years ago).
I know about everything I need to know about NDSU but know nothing about Ball State.
The biggest things about this one is can Ball State stop the run at all? The Bison live and die with the run and if they need to pass more than run, they are in trouble?especially against a D1-A team, of which they have never played one before.
The line just came out for NDSU/Ball State and unbelievably NDSU is favored by -4. They are D1-AA and in there transition (were D2 2 years ago).
I know about everything I need to know about NDSU but know nothing about Ball State.
The biggest things about this one is can Ball State stop the run at all? The Bison live and die with the run and if they need to pass more than run, they are in trouble?especially against a D1-A team, of which they have never played one before.
Division I-AA
Division I-AA
Richmond -24 over BucknellThe party is over for Bucknell after two wins in their first three games. Richmond is one of the best teams in I-AA and they will show it here. Bucknell's passing game is atrocious and Richmond will load up to make them pass. Bucknell already lost a home game to Lafayette by 31 and Richmond is a better team than Lafayette. As long as Richmond can score more than 24, they will cover.
Dayton -24 over Austin Peay: Laying big chalk again but I don't think Dayton will have trouble covering it. They have struggled defensively in the first two games but have had two weeks to get things straightened out. AP is one of the five worst teams in I-AA and will be lucky to score once.
Idaho St. +4 over N. Arizona: I'd love to see a total in this game since I've never seen one in the 80's. Neither team plays much defense but Idaho St. has Matt Guiterrez who got Wally Pipped at Michigan two years ago. I like the points for the home dog in a very even matchup.
James Madison -5.5 over Northeastern: Tough loss two weeks ago for JMU against a very good Appy State team. NE is also a good team but not quite in JMU's league. I don't think NE has the offense to move the ball against JMU. My line was -16.
Texas St. -2.5 over S. Utah: Texas St. really played poorly last week and is too strong to not bounce back this week. S. Utah is getting way too much respect after beating Montana Tech and Western St. If not for last week's poor performance, I'd be laying two units on this one.
Brown +6 over Harvard: Proceed with caution on this one since each team has only played one game but my numbers show Brown should be a 3.5 point favorite. Both teams has nice wins last week but I don't see Harvard being that much more impressive to be a 6 point road favorite.
Division I-AA
Richmond -24 over BucknellThe party is over for Bucknell after two wins in their first three games. Richmond is one of the best teams in I-AA and they will show it here. Bucknell's passing game is atrocious and Richmond will load up to make them pass. Bucknell already lost a home game to Lafayette by 31 and Richmond is a better team than Lafayette. As long as Richmond can score more than 24, they will cover.
Dayton -24 over Austin Peay: Laying big chalk again but I don't think Dayton will have trouble covering it. They have struggled defensively in the first two games but have had two weeks to get things straightened out. AP is one of the five worst teams in I-AA and will be lucky to score once.
Idaho St. +4 over N. Arizona: I'd love to see a total in this game since I've never seen one in the 80's. Neither team plays much defense but Idaho St. has Matt Guiterrez who got Wally Pipped at Michigan two years ago. I like the points for the home dog in a very even matchup.
James Madison -5.5 over Northeastern: Tough loss two weeks ago for JMU against a very good Appy State team. NE is also a good team but not quite in JMU's league. I don't think NE has the offense to move the ball against JMU. My line was -16.
Texas St. -2.5 over S. Utah: Texas St. really played poorly last week and is too strong to not bounce back this week. S. Utah is getting way too much respect after beating Montana Tech and Western St. If not for last week's poor performance, I'd be laying two units on this one.
Brown +6 over Harvard: Proceed with caution on this one since each team has only played one game but my numbers show Brown should be a 3.5 point favorite. Both teams has nice wins last week but I don't see Harvard being that much more impressive to be a 6 point road favorite.
Spalding,
The model I use for selecting Division I-AA games hasn't been real effective when I-AA teams play D-I teams. Of course it could be reasonably argued that Ball St. is barely a D-I team. I don't have much to tell you about Testicle Tech except that they have been able to score some points against some of the worst defenses in the country (Purdue, EMU, and Indiana)
The model I use for selecting Division I-AA games hasn't been real effective when I-AA teams play D-I teams. Of course it could be reasonably argued that Ball St. is barely a D-I team. I don't have much to tell you about Testicle Tech except that they have been able to score some points against some of the worst defenses in the country (Purdue, EMU, and Indiana)
That may be but NDSU is pretty good and is hanging pretty well in D1-AA (also there Rival North Dakota just went to Northern Iowa and beat them as a D2 school).
I just am having a hard time figuring out how the heck this line is NDSU -3 when they are a 20th ranked D1-AA team and playing at Balls Tech, who supposedly is better this year. They haven't beat one good team on the road in years. Maybe Balls isn't that good then.
Anyone else really like St. Bonaventure (CA) getting 4 against Oaks Christian (CA) on Friday night? Or do I have a problem?
I think we can safely say that you have a problem...
However, I am sure that I will take a look at the numbers for this one now that you pointed it out.
However, I am sure that I will take a look at the numbers for this one now that you pointed it out.
Spading, been racking my brain about this one too (and to some extent San Jose -2.5 at Cal-SLO)...
Thursday night
Thursday night
UVA +10 (1st Half) over Georgia Tech and under 7.5 (1st Qtr) at -125: The first quarter juice is a little pricey but I think we will get a slow start out of both offenses (actually UVA may never get started). Neither QB is outstanding and we should see a little bit of conservative play early in a conference game. UVA will hang around for awhile in this game by punting the ball away and playing safe.
Thursday night
UVA +10 (1st Half) over Georgia Tech and under 7.5 (1st Qtr) at -125: The first quarter juice is a little pricey but I think we will get a slow start out of both offenses (actually UVA may never get started). Neither QB is outstanding and we should see a little bit of conservative play early in a conference game. UVA will hang around for awhile in this game by punting the ball away and playing safe.
Hang on! I'm tailing you on this one, already got UVA +17 and took Under 39.5
I like your additions!
GL!
