College Football Picks (9/28-9/30) YTD: 28-28, -4.15 units

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BGFalcon

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Write ups:

Write ups:

N. Texas -1.5 over MTSU: Both teams are coming off disappointing outings and neither appears to be very good. But there is hope--the Sun Belt Conference season is starting. This is the beauty of the Sun Belt; teams are expected to get pounded outside the conference but one team is going to a bowl. N. Texas had dominated the conference up until last year but has their work cut out for them this year. They should give Jamario the ball about 35 times this week against MTSU who may still be stunned over the dick-sanding they got from Oklahoma last week. Once they get the running game going everything else should be adequate enough to cover the small chalk.

Arkansas St. +7 over FIU: Arkansas St. has had two miserable outings recently and FIU lost 4 games by a total of 12 points so we are getting some help with the line (now at 7.5). I don't know that any team should be laying more than a TD in the Sun Belt and especially not in a game that should be low scoring. ASU should be able to get the running game going and keep this one within a TD. I would not be surprised with a SU win.

Penn St./Northwestern under 44.5: PSU showed a pretty solid defense last week against Ohio St. and will have to focus on running the ball until Morelli gets comfortable. NW seems to be evolving into more of a traditional run the ball/play solid defense program instead of the wide open fast break football they played in the past. All this plus the conference game factor makes this a solid under play.

Illinois/Sparty under 56: Sparty can't be too interested in this game after last week's debacle but they are too talented to lose it. This should be pretty ugly but the Illini are not good enough to take advantage. Sparty will be too bored to score more than 40 and I'm pretty sure Illinois is incapable of scoring more than two TD's.

I'll have some Division I-AA's once the lines are posted.
 
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texasAUtiger

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BGFalcon said:
Illinois/Sparty under 56: Sparty can't be too interested in this game after last week's debacle but they are too talented to lose it. This should be pretty ugly but the Illini are not good enough to take advantage. Sparty will be too bored to score more than 40 and I'm pretty sure Illinois is incapable of scoring more than two TD's.
Click to expand...

BG, I'm with you on this one with both feet especially since Ill is on the road.
 
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jdp1152

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BG, any DII play this week with major line discrepancies? I tailed you on the JMU pick last week and as you said, it wasn't even close. Gracias mi amigo!
 
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Carl Spackler

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I predict that BG Falcon will be quite interested in Richmond -15 over Northeastern and possibly Butler +25.5 over Dayton in Division 1-AA this week.
 
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BGFalcon

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Division I-AA

Division I-AA

Florida A&M +4 over Tenn St.: Florida A&M has struggled a little bit stopping the run, but not enough to make them a 4 point underdog to Tennessee St. My numbers give a slight edge to Florida A&M. This should be a FG game either way. I'll take the points.

Holy Cross -11 over Fordham: HC has been competitve in every game (except maybe Harvard) and Fordham has not. Rams can't seem to score and won't find it any easier against a pretty good HC defense. This line should be closer to 20.

E. Washington -12 over Sacremento St.: Sac. St. getting a little too much credit for their close game against Cal Poly and EWU not getting much respect after their shaky start. But, we are in the Big Sky now and EWU is one of the top teams year after year. They got it going last week against Montana St. and should take care of business against a truly rotten defense. Having this line under two touchdowns at home is real nice.

South Dakota St. +5.5 over McNeese St.: SDSU has been good for the money against the spread the last two weeks so I'm going to ride them again. McNeese is tough to figure out because of their schedule. My numbers had SDSU as a 5 point favorite so getting 5.5 is a big enough swing to play it.

Drake -15 over Morehead St.: Seinfeld was quoted as saying he "hates the Drake" but you got to like them in this spot. Morehead St. is not good defensively(they gave up 49 points to Missouri Rolla) and Drake should be able to take advantage.
 
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BGFalcon

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One more:

One more:

Montana St. +8.5 over N. Arizona: This should be a high scoring game between two of the better passing offenses around. Neither team is anything special on defense. I think Montana St. will bounce back from last week's disappointment and keep this one close.
 
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BGFalcon

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Forgot one:

Forgot one:

Grambling -17 over Prarie View: Grambling comes home after a grueling stretch of games that included a double OT loss to a very good Hampton team, an OT loss to Alabama A&M and a 42-22 loss to Houston where they gave up 28 in the 2nd quarter. They should have no trouble with Prarie View whose game last week was suspended after 3 quarters. Prarie View was trailing Langston 21-0 at the time. Who the hell is Langston? My only concern about this game is that Grambling's QB may be injured. He only played a little bit against Houston but his backup threw for 250 yards and 2 TDs. Grambling has already lost one in the SWAC and can't afford another. I think we will see a solid 3 TD victory. Well, not really "see" since nobody televises this shit.
 
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BGFalcon

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N. Illinois -6.5 Ball St.: I've been waiting on this one to go below seven and it finally got there. Ball St. beat NIU last year at Northern but I think the Huskies will return the favor this year. Ball St. can't run the ball and they don't defend very well. Huskies can't take another MAC loss. Taking a chance and laying the road chalk.
 
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