College Football Week 1 Experience Mismatches
As we head into the opening of the college football season for 2009, hopefully everyone has done their homework in researching the teams, returning players, and other key factors that will be influential in the weeks to come. One of the things I find most valuable in the first couple of weeks is the quantity and/or quality of returning players to each team?s lineup. Knowing this information can go a long way in picking apart pointspread mistakes early in the season.
Much of the analysis that I perform is quantitative. There are experts out there like Phil Steele, who conduct thorough qualitative analysis of individual players. The combination of each method would probably be a gold mine in early season betting, since I am always quick to warn readers about the dangers of both overestimating and underestimating how much experience can mean to certain teams. I?ll repeat a quote I gave a year ago in an article regarding this subject:
"Be sure to utilize the returning starter information, but don't assume that a wealth of experience returning or lack thereof automatically means a lot. For instance, a team that won two games a year ago might not be better off with a lot of starting players back. Meanwhile, a program on the rise or one that has been solid for a number of years will probably maintain its success even if it isn't returning a lot of core players. Be careful when making these assumptions. Many pointspreads are predicated upon this information and can often be misleading.?
There are so many factors beyond experience that will contribute to the result of a football game, and consequently whether a team covers or loses on the pointspread.
Still, what I?m here to accomplish now is to go through the Week 1 games that have the biggest returning starter mismatches, and then weigh in my own opinion on whether or not this experience difference will play a big role in the outcome of the games. Incidentally, using this same exercise a year ago, my analysis proved prophetic in five of eight games.
Note: To determine which games were indeed the ?Biggest Experience Mismatches?, I simply compared the total number of returning starters (OFFENSE + DEFENSE) to each team in the game. I also gave a bonus point to any team who had its starting quarterback returning.
For Week 1, here are eight of the 40 games that had an experience advantage of +5 or higher for one of the teams. Here are those games along with my opinion of the degree to which that experience differential will matter. The pointspreads shown were those available as of presstime. Check your favorite establishment for the latest updates:
(173) TOLEDO - Off: 9*, Def: 9 @ (174) PURDUE - Off: 4, Def: 7
Advantage: Toledo +8
Pointspread: Purdue by 11.5
The Toledo-Purdue game is an interesting one in a number of facets, not only because of the experience advantage that Toledo has in returning starters. After a decade-plus under Joe Tiller, Purdue is starting over under Danny Hope, and while he may bring fresh ?hope?, the fact is that his team is coming off its worst season in many years, 4-8. Toledo also has a fresh face on the sideline, Tim Beckman. This game therefore, has way too many changing variables, and I?ll pass, although my greater discomfort would come from laying the points.
(163) RICE - Off: 4, Def: 8 @ (164) UAB - Off: 11*, Def: 7
Advantage: UAB +7
Pointspread: UAB by 4.5
On the surface, you?d have to believe that UAB is on an upward trend, and Rice could be facing a rebuilding year. Not so fast, it would be a mistake to assume that the Owls? 41.3 PPG in ?08 were all because of the 11 starters on the field, and nothing to do with the system of HC David Bailiff. UAB is just 4-10 ATS as a favorite over the last four seasons, and Rice comes in with a 7-game winning streak. In my opinion, this line us far too presumptuous. Take the points with a side helping of money line.
(169) ARMY - Off: 3*, Def: 7 @ (170) E MICHIGAN - Off: 8*, Def: 8
Advantage: E Michigan +6
Pointspread: E Michigan by 5.5
Army begins anew under Rich Ellerson this season, after three straight 3-9 campaigns. If you?re not familiar with Ellerson, he was the architect behind Cal Poly?s FCS success using the triple option. Thus, expect little will change at Army in ?09. Is that good? Yes, if you consider the Knights beat Eastern Michigan outright last season. Plus, EMU is bringing a lot of experience from a team that hasn?t shown potential. Take Army.
(195) LSU - Off: 6*, Def: 6 @ (196) WASHINGTON - Off: 8*, Def: 10
Advantage: Washington +6
Pointspread: LSU by 16
I was actually a bit surprised to see this line only hovering around the 16-point mark. Oddsmakers must really believe that Washington and its returning foundation of players are ready for a resurgence. The Huskies only lost three of their 12 games by less than 16-points in ?08. Even though LSU has been giving up a lot of points lately, I can only see Washington?s experience edge keeping them in the game for about a half before LSU?s talent breaks it open.
(147) AKRON - Off: 9*, Def: 6 @ (148) PENN ST - Off: 5*, Def: 5
Advantage: Akron +5
Pointspread: Penn St by 26.5
Penn State won its four non-conference games by 42.8 PPG to open the 2008 campaign. For this year, the Nittany Lions might not boast a bunch of returning players, but they have a core of very talented starters back, including QB Daryll Clark. Considering that Beaver Stadium in State College, PA. is one of the toughest stadiums for opponents to play at in college football, I?d surmise that Akron?s experience edge won?t amount to a hill of beans here.
(165) BAYLOR - Off: 9*, Def: 9 @ (166) WAKE FOREST - Off: 9*, Def: 4
Advantage: Baylor +5
Pointspread: Wake Forest by 1
Annual, we write that ?times are changing in Waco.? Baylor comes off a season in which it won its L5 games and eight of its L10 against the spread. That is unheard of for the program. Near upsets of Texas Tech and Missouri were the highlights. Wake Forest meanwhile, has QB Riley Skinner back but its inexperienced defense will be tested by the Bears? talented QB, Robert Griffin. In a battle of ACC vs. Big 12, I?ll take the more experienced Baylor team on the road.
(179) NEW MEXICO - Off: 8*, Def: 3 @ (180) TEXAS A&M - Off: 9*, Def: 7
Advantage: Texas A&M +5
Pointspread: Texas A&M by 14
Mike Sherman endured a tortuous first season for Texas A&M but things figure to get better in a hurry as he brings back a wealth of experience on both sides of the ball. New Mexico on the other hand, is starting over on defense, with just three players back. That was the better unit from ?08, ranking 46th in the country. The offense meanwhile, has eight starters back but that group was held to 10 points or less in four of its L6 games. I don?t view that as a positive by any means. New HC Mike Locksley could have his hands full in College Station.
(187) MARYLAND - Off: 6*, Def: 4 @ (188) CALIFORNIA - Off: 7*, Def: 8
Advantage: California +5
Pointspread: California by 21.5
I see a lot of experts overlooking Cal this year in the Pac 10, but I love the Golden Bears? chances. They bring back a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Still, this pointspread is too rich for my blood when you consider that Maryland beat Cal outright a year ago as a 13-1/2 point dog. It?s rare that the Terps get blasted by unfamiliar foes. In my opinion, this is a spot where too much stock is being put into the returning player info.
:toast:
As we head into the opening of the college football season for 2009, hopefully everyone has done their homework in researching the teams, returning players, and other key factors that will be influential in the weeks to come. One of the things I find most valuable in the first couple of weeks is the quantity and/or quality of returning players to each team?s lineup. Knowing this information can go a long way in picking apart pointspread mistakes early in the season.
Much of the analysis that I perform is quantitative. There are experts out there like Phil Steele, who conduct thorough qualitative analysis of individual players. The combination of each method would probably be a gold mine in early season betting, since I am always quick to warn readers about the dangers of both overestimating and underestimating how much experience can mean to certain teams. I?ll repeat a quote I gave a year ago in an article regarding this subject:
"Be sure to utilize the returning starter information, but don't assume that a wealth of experience returning or lack thereof automatically means a lot. For instance, a team that won two games a year ago might not be better off with a lot of starting players back. Meanwhile, a program on the rise or one that has been solid for a number of years will probably maintain its success even if it isn't returning a lot of core players. Be careful when making these assumptions. Many pointspreads are predicated upon this information and can often be misleading.?
There are so many factors beyond experience that will contribute to the result of a football game, and consequently whether a team covers or loses on the pointspread.
Still, what I?m here to accomplish now is to go through the Week 1 games that have the biggest returning starter mismatches, and then weigh in my own opinion on whether or not this experience difference will play a big role in the outcome of the games. Incidentally, using this same exercise a year ago, my analysis proved prophetic in five of eight games.
Note: To determine which games were indeed the ?Biggest Experience Mismatches?, I simply compared the total number of returning starters (OFFENSE + DEFENSE) to each team in the game. I also gave a bonus point to any team who had its starting quarterback returning.
For Week 1, here are eight of the 40 games that had an experience advantage of +5 or higher for one of the teams. Here are those games along with my opinion of the degree to which that experience differential will matter. The pointspreads shown were those available as of presstime. Check your favorite establishment for the latest updates:
(173) TOLEDO - Off: 9*, Def: 9 @ (174) PURDUE - Off: 4, Def: 7
Advantage: Toledo +8
Pointspread: Purdue by 11.5
The Toledo-Purdue game is an interesting one in a number of facets, not only because of the experience advantage that Toledo has in returning starters. After a decade-plus under Joe Tiller, Purdue is starting over under Danny Hope, and while he may bring fresh ?hope?, the fact is that his team is coming off its worst season in many years, 4-8. Toledo also has a fresh face on the sideline, Tim Beckman. This game therefore, has way too many changing variables, and I?ll pass, although my greater discomfort would come from laying the points.
(163) RICE - Off: 4, Def: 8 @ (164) UAB - Off: 11*, Def: 7
Advantage: UAB +7
Pointspread: UAB by 4.5
On the surface, you?d have to believe that UAB is on an upward trend, and Rice could be facing a rebuilding year. Not so fast, it would be a mistake to assume that the Owls? 41.3 PPG in ?08 were all because of the 11 starters on the field, and nothing to do with the system of HC David Bailiff. UAB is just 4-10 ATS as a favorite over the last four seasons, and Rice comes in with a 7-game winning streak. In my opinion, this line us far too presumptuous. Take the points with a side helping of money line.
(169) ARMY - Off: 3*, Def: 7 @ (170) E MICHIGAN - Off: 8*, Def: 8
Advantage: E Michigan +6
Pointspread: E Michigan by 5.5
Army begins anew under Rich Ellerson this season, after three straight 3-9 campaigns. If you?re not familiar with Ellerson, he was the architect behind Cal Poly?s FCS success using the triple option. Thus, expect little will change at Army in ?09. Is that good? Yes, if you consider the Knights beat Eastern Michigan outright last season. Plus, EMU is bringing a lot of experience from a team that hasn?t shown potential. Take Army.
(195) LSU - Off: 6*, Def: 6 @ (196) WASHINGTON - Off: 8*, Def: 10
Advantage: Washington +6
Pointspread: LSU by 16
I was actually a bit surprised to see this line only hovering around the 16-point mark. Oddsmakers must really believe that Washington and its returning foundation of players are ready for a resurgence. The Huskies only lost three of their 12 games by less than 16-points in ?08. Even though LSU has been giving up a lot of points lately, I can only see Washington?s experience edge keeping them in the game for about a half before LSU?s talent breaks it open.
(147) AKRON - Off: 9*, Def: 6 @ (148) PENN ST - Off: 5*, Def: 5
Advantage: Akron +5
Pointspread: Penn St by 26.5
Penn State won its four non-conference games by 42.8 PPG to open the 2008 campaign. For this year, the Nittany Lions might not boast a bunch of returning players, but they have a core of very talented starters back, including QB Daryll Clark. Considering that Beaver Stadium in State College, PA. is one of the toughest stadiums for opponents to play at in college football, I?d surmise that Akron?s experience edge won?t amount to a hill of beans here.
(165) BAYLOR - Off: 9*, Def: 9 @ (166) WAKE FOREST - Off: 9*, Def: 4
Advantage: Baylor +5
Pointspread: Wake Forest by 1
Annual, we write that ?times are changing in Waco.? Baylor comes off a season in which it won its L5 games and eight of its L10 against the spread. That is unheard of for the program. Near upsets of Texas Tech and Missouri were the highlights. Wake Forest meanwhile, has QB Riley Skinner back but its inexperienced defense will be tested by the Bears? talented QB, Robert Griffin. In a battle of ACC vs. Big 12, I?ll take the more experienced Baylor team on the road.
(179) NEW MEXICO - Off: 8*, Def: 3 @ (180) TEXAS A&M - Off: 9*, Def: 7
Advantage: Texas A&M +5
Pointspread: Texas A&M by 14
Mike Sherman endured a tortuous first season for Texas A&M but things figure to get better in a hurry as he brings back a wealth of experience on both sides of the ball. New Mexico on the other hand, is starting over on defense, with just three players back. That was the better unit from ?08, ranking 46th in the country. The offense meanwhile, has eight starters back but that group was held to 10 points or less in four of its L6 games. I don?t view that as a positive by any means. New HC Mike Locksley could have his hands full in College Station.
(187) MARYLAND - Off: 6*, Def: 4 @ (188) CALIFORNIA - Off: 7*, Def: 8
Advantage: California +5
Pointspread: California by 21.5
I see a lot of experts overlooking Cal this year in the Pac 10, but I love the Golden Bears? chances. They bring back a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Still, this pointspread is too rich for my blood when you consider that Maryland beat Cal outright a year ago as a 13-1/2 point dog. It?s rare that the Terps get blasted by unfamiliar foes. In my opinion, this is a spot where too much stock is being put into the returning player info.
:toast:
