College Foots and HSF plan for 10/27-10/29

Riff-Raff

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Record to Date:

College Foots: 59-60-3 (-26.7 units)

HSF Degen : 24-20-2 (-4.4 units)

Let's start with HSF...

For 10-27:

California School for the Deaf - 15' over Woodland Christian..WIN (43-0)... 2 units.. *God may strike me down for wagering on this one. ESPN piggybacked on to the Eagles after they ran a 30 for 30 special. The thing is that the Eagles are a pretty good football team at 8-1, with their lone loss against a team from Indiana (School for the Deaf) 16-12. Offensively they average 41.9 points per game which is remarkable as the school only has 120 students in the coed school. Like most small schools, their coach has had to move some people around. He has settled on his QB Jax Pederson who was the leading RB the last 2 seasons. He has thrown for 1,518 yards w/24 Tds while completing 75.9% of his passes. The team may be a little road weary as the school just returned from a trip to Mississippi (School for the Deaf) where they spanked the home squad 40-0.

The Woodland Christian Cardinals come in at 5-3, however, doing a bit of digging I found the record is misleading as the opponents they have beaten are a combined 8-24, so very little can be taken from the record. Supposedly the Dline and Oline are returning letterman and starters, and this was a playoff team in 2015. I actually have a connection as 1 of the schools they lost to I was head coach for 3 years, and another loss came by way of a team that was my high school Alma mater. The team has struggled against good competition probably because the skill players (QB, RBs, Wrs) are all new. There was 1 like opponent, Eagles beat Western Sierra 58-0, while Cardinals won 28-14.

The line has moved up a point since the lines posted. With good reason, as I think CSFD win by 20+ fairly easily.


Centennial/Norco Over 75'...LOSS... .2 units... *Two very offensive minded teams square off in a rivalry. Huskies average 53.8 ppg, while Cougars put up 41.6 ppg. Usually in rivalry games I lean to the unders, but these two tend to leave the Defenses in the locker room.

Centennial is the #3 ranked team in CA. They are also nationally ranked in the top 20. Centennial offense averages 560.3 yards per game, while Norco averages 426.5. Centennial played IMG Academy earlier in the year and lost in a nail biter shoot out 50-49. In 2015, Huskies stomped the Cougars 67-20. While Norco is much more improved this year, I think they will have a tough time matching scores of but will most definitely try. Huskies actually made it to the State Championship last year but lost to No Cal power DeLaSalle 28-21.

I look for a ton of points in this one reminds me of the Oklahoma / Texas Tech shootout. Huskies are favored by 21 which is a lot, but I will stick with the Over.


Mount Si - 14' over Newport... 1 unit... *Another game I'm scratching my head at, wondering how these 2 made the HSF rotation. Mt Si is 3-5, while the Knights are 1-7. The team Newport managed to beat was 1-7 also.

Wildcats average 25.5 ppg. Knights average 20.8 ppg. On defense, Si gives up 28 ppg while it's opponent gives 40.7. There isn't a ton of information out there on these 2 which is par when your two teams are just trying to get the season over with.

Fortunately, these 2 played several like opponents and drawing from the results, I feel comfortable laying 14' here as Newport is the picture of inept and even this dysfunctional team should be able to pull away and boost their record to 4-5, at least I hope.
 
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Riff-Raff

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Thurs NCAA plays.....

1. Ohio +16' over Toledo..WIN... 3 units.. *Bobcats have won 4 of last 5, and 6 of last 8 of their games were decided by 10 or less points. This rivalry affectionately called the Glass Bowl. Bobcats haven't lost a games by more than 9 all year, which includes a bout with Tennessee. This game could very well be a preview of the Mac Championship when all is said and done. Ohio is currently tied with Zips. This will be the 2nd start for Redshirt Frosh Quinton Maxwell, so some obvious concerns there with offensive efficiency, but defensively the Bobcats lead Mac in rush defense (115 ypg) and limits the opposition to 3.2 ypc. The front 7 are extremely talented, strong, and athletic. They will have to bring their A game to slow down Rocket attack.

Toledo QB leads all Mac passers with 28 tds completing 71.4%. He has tossed 4 tds in each of last 6 games. He doesn't make many mistakes, so Ohio D will need to bring pressure.

I'm trusting Solich will have a game plan to slow down this high octane offense. Honestly, I still have a hitch in my giddyup backing Toledo after they let Bowling Green gang around. I'm taking the points.

2. CAL TT over 30 over USC...LOSS... 4 units... *No doubt everyone expected regression in Bear offense after J Goff departed company. Instead, D. Webb has stepped in to complete 225 passes for almost 2,600 yards w/27 tds The Bears also run the ball by committee with 3 different TBs, in fact last week they ran the ball for over 300 yards against Oregon. Unfortunately, the Defense is another story allowing opponents to average 41 ppg. Still, while Trojans are playing inspired ball they have allowed points, and 30 is very reachable for this offensive juggernaut.

3. VA Tech TT over 30'..5 units..WIN.. *Pitt run D is ranked 7th in the nation and has yet to allow a 100 yard day to any opposing RBs. Thats the good news if your a Panther fan. Now here's the bad, Pitt allows 31.4 ppg and ranks 123rd nationally in pass D, allowing nearly 300 ypg in the air.

New Coach J Fuentes has installed an up tempo, quick strike offense that he was so successful with at Memphis. 3 names (Isaiah Ford, Bucky Hodges, and Cam Phillips) should make life unbearable for Pitt secondary. Hodges is 6'7" 245 lbs Wr that was converted from TE. He has 25 receptions for 323 TO yards/5 Tds (although now a Wr, he is still listed as a TE and is the 2nd ranked TE to go in 2017 draft). JUNIOR Receiver C. Phillips has 27 receptions 405 yards/2 tds. Wr Isaiah Ford is the 3rd rated Wr to go in the 2017 draft. He has 36 receptions for 505 yards/5 tds. Throwing the ball to this very good Wr core is QB Jerod Evans, 6'3" 238 lbs (he is bigger than some LBs on the field) He has completed 117 of 186 passes for 1,605 yards w/19 TDs and just 2 ints. He is also a very dangerous dual threat QB who has run 85 times for 417 yards w/3 TDs. He is the team's second leading rusher and Panthers will have to account for him, as if the pocket breaks down he will take off.

This TT over 30' looks very doable from where I'm sitting, so I jumped on it. Gl.
 
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Riff-Raff

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2 HSF plays...

1. Grayson / Hoover Under 42'..LOSS (36-14)..Someone had this one figured out ..1 unit.. *Both Georgia Power and Alabama lock horns for bragging right and State pride. Both teams have 1 loss, Rams lost to current #2 ranked IMG Academy 26-7, while Bucs were ambushed in Texas to perennial power #6th ranked Allen. Both teams are #1 ranked in their state.

Both teams play outstanding Defense. Grayson since their loss, has recorded 3 shutouts holding opponents to a total of 65 points on the season (average 8.1 ppg). Hoover also exhibits top notch stinginess holding opponents to an average of 7.78 ppg. Grayson averages 37.6 ppg while Bucs average 31.3 ppg.

Hoover is an 11 time state champion. Rams margin of victory is 240-12. Both schools have several Div 1 commits, with Rams QB Chase Brice following his coach from last year to Clemson. Hoovers Junior Wr, Shedrick Jackson is the nephew to Heisman Award Winner Bo Jackson

Could make an argument for both of these teams to walk away with a W however, both Defenses get after it and points may be at a premium so I'm backing the Under play.


2. Beaver Falls / Beaver Under 65'...WIN (20-15)...2 units... *This rivalry game is to break up a log jam (excuse the Beaver pun).. in Class 3A PA Beaver Valley League and should be for a state playoff birth. While both offenses are fairly adept at putting points on the board. BF Tigers average 37.6 ppg, Beaver averages 44.3. In last year's contest Beaver Falls won handily 47-7. I'm thinking this one will be won upfront. Beaver Falls has one of the top rated DLinemen, Donovan Jeter just recently committed to Michigan. Both Defenses hold opponents to under 20 ppg, so this number appears to be a bit high so I will try the Under.
 
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Riff-Raff

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1 more HSF play...

Centennial -21' over Norco... WIN (49-17)... 2 units.. *I jumped on this wager because a buddy who grew up in the South and follows these schools religiously, couldn't believe there was a line on this game. I asked him if 21 was too many for this rivalry and he said 40 wouldn't be enough so u jumped in it. I may put a couple of more units on it we shall see.

FCS Plays: *All for 2 units

1. Robert Morris / C. CONN St. Over 34'
... LOSS

2. Mercer +12' over Wofford
... WIN

3. Valpo +6' over Butler... LOSS

4. E. Illinois +21' over Jacksonville St.... LOSS

5. San Diego -14' over Marist
... WIN

6. No Colorado +10' over Portland St... WIN

7. Indiana St +16' over Youngstown St... WIN

8. Stetson / Dayton Over 42'
... LOSS

Alot of plays... Need to hit a few to make up for the juice... Gl
 
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Riff-Raff

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*HSF FYI: Centennial now at 24'...I believe it keeps going up. Interesting development in the Grayson / Hoover game... Line opened w/Grayson -1..now at -8....hmmm.

College 10/28:

Navy / S. Florida Over 65..WIN... .6 units... Both teams with extremely capable offenses going at it. Love Navy with QB Will Worth filling in and also replacing one of the most prolific mobile Qbs ever in Keenan Reynolds. So far, Worth has carried for 134 times for 487 yards w/9 Tds. 3 rbs share the load in the tricky triple option attack. In addition, this year's version of Navy appears to be tossing around the ball more with 5 different receivers having caught TD passes from Worth. Last game against Memphis, Midshipmen won 42-28 with Worth running for 201 yards and 3 Tds. S. Florida run defense is ranked 99th in the nation. Navy boasts the 4th ranked running attack averaging 290 ypg.

S. Florida is very capable themselves with Q. Flowers averaging 277 total yards of offense. As a whole he has produced over 1,700 through the air. He Is a true dual threat QB. This year he has rushed 108 times for 745 yards w/8 tds. 2 Rbs share carries in the backfield, with over 150 carries for almost 1,000 yards w/14 tds. Flowers passes to 5 different receivers who have double digit rec while 7 more WRs have scored Tds in the system. Rbs out of the backfield have also benefitted from short passes and screens. Navy D isn't very good, as they rank below average in 4 major defensive categories.

My only concern here was that Flowers was listed as questionable early in the week, but appears to be all systems go for tonight. I expect a lot of fireworks tonight. The over is 7-1 in Middies last 8 conference games.
Gl


San Diego St / Utah St Under 45'... LOSS ..3 units.... *San Diego is one of the best defenses in the country. Azteca have only given up a total of 13 points combined in last 3 games. Aztecs tend to be very one dimensional handing off to their Heisman hopeful. In fact, yet rank 114th in passing offense.

Utah St only averages 25.4 ppg and they will have a hard time tonight. Aggies rank 83rd in total offense. When they played Boise they could only muster 10 points. I expect Utah to borrow a little from Fresno St who slowed down the #14th rushing attack. Utah has actually been fairly effective against the run allowing only 3.6 yards per carry.

I can't put my money on the over with these two, but feel much better with the Under.. Gl
 
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Riff-Raff

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Sat 10/29:

1. Purdue +13' over Penn St... 3 units.. LOSS.. .. *Penn St Coach finally gets his signature win in Happy Valley in OT. That's what makes College Foots so special. 1st time in 5 years Nittany Lions are ranked. Coach states that they have already put the W to bed and are focused on this weeks opponent. I smile...... Yeah right..... We are still talking about college kids here and this has hang-over let down written all over it. Purdue now playing for new Head Coach Parker. Last game actually had lead at half 24-10 to Nebraska only to watch Huskers score 17 unanswered points in 2nd half. I'm taking the points here hoping the partying hasn't cleared the players system.

2. Kansas St -7 over Iowa St.... LOSS .. 4 units.. *This is vintage Bill Snyder football and is a mismatch imo. Iowa St has issues in the front 7 on D and while this isn't the greatest offensive Wildcat team I think they will run it up Cyclones nose. Wildcat D is keeping them in all games.I think the Wildcats win by 10+..

3. W Virginia -3' over Oklahoma St..LOSS... . 4 units... *Another mismatch on paper. Mountaineers playing stellar D. Over last 2 weeks, WV has held TTech and TCU to a combined 27 points. This will ultimately come down to WV CBs against Okla St Wrs. While Receivers McClesky and Washington are extremely dangerous, I trust CBs Douglas and Battle to keep the secondary in check. I will expect another big win here.

4. DUKE/ Georgia Tech Under 50'... LOSS ...5 units.

Gl....... FOK... 0-4 gonna hurt
 
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Riff-Raff

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Played these...

1. Smoo TT over 26....3 units... WIN

2. Texas Tech TT over 39...5 UNITS.. LOSS

3. Wake Forest - 7'....5 UNITS.. LOSS

4. W. KENTUCKY TT OVER 43'...3 UNITS... WIN

5. ARIZ ST TT over 33'....3 UNITS.. WIN

BOL
 
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stwoody

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Hey bro, I played that high school bet last night on Centennial. Thanks for the winner. I appreciate the write ups.
 
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