thanks guys....
adding....
uab+4(120)....
so. carolina+3....
i also bought the rutgers play back by taking louisville+4 & then took rutgers-3....
here's who i am playing this week....
stanford-7(130)....would play this up to 10....
so. miss.+4....
fla atl.-12(120)....
ohio+3....
bama-10....
rutgers-3....
conn.-12....
monroe+4....
uab+4(120)....
so. carolina+3....
here is a great writeup from a bama forum about their game against auburn....
Since the beginning of the 2008 season:
Alabama has held 20 of 25 opponents to 20 or fewer points. (Another - LSU last year - scored 21 narrowly missing the cut.)
Taking it a step further....
Alabama has held 17 of those 25 opponents to 14 points or less.
Alabama has held 12 of 25 to single-digit scoring, pitching 3 shutouts.
During that span, in regular-season games, Alabama has outscored SEC opponents by 258 points in 15 games. That equates to an average margin of victory in SEC GAMES of 17.2 ppg.
In that same time frame, all opponents have scored 309 points against Alabama (an average of 12.36 ppg.) Very good for the Tide.
But here's where it really gets amazing...
Of those 309 points, only 260 were given up by the defense. The rest were allowed on special teams or offense. When you factor that in, the Alabama defense has only surrendered 11 points per game over the past 2 seasons (and that's including both of the debacles that ended last season.)
We have held 15 of our past 25 opponents to 65 or fewer rushing yards per game.
We have held 10 of the 25 to fewer than 200 yards of total offense.
Maybe I'm just grasping at straws here, but these are just absolutely eye-popping numbers to me. In this day of wide open offenses that can score some serious points, here's what I take from it.
More times than not, teams will score 14 or less and run for 65 or less vs the Tide. And just shy of half the time they won't even amass 200 yards of total offense or score in double-figures against us."
On the surface, Auburn appears to be a very live home dog. I admit, this often a situation where the points will grab my attention. However, I am confident that I'm more familiar with both of these programs than 99% of bettors. I can see why people would like Auburn in the spot at first glance. Until last year, Auburn beat Bama 6 in a row. Auburn is a 7 win team with a very potent offense. Two scores is a lot in a rivalry game where it has traditionally been a tight ball game. This opening line is indicatative of Bama being almost a 3 TD favorite at home. Auburn is coming off of a bye week, Bama off a short week. I understand all of these aspects, but I don't think they are as relevant as some people may be led to believe.
Auburn has seven wins and has exceeded most people's expectations this season. I believe that the early goings of this schedule were condusive to Auburn being bowl eligible, as well as them having impressive offensive numbers.
Louisiana Tech
Miss St
West Virginia
Ball State
All at home, 4-0. The most impressive win of the lot appears to be WVU. Auburn won that game 41-30. The thing about the game was that Auburn was actually outgained by 109 yards, but benfited from a +5 TO margin, in that game alone. It was Brown's first road start at QB, he threw 4 INT's, was knocked out of the game late and his backup threw a pick late that sealed the game.
Since that 4 game stretch:
@ Tenn
@ Arky
Kentucky
@ LSU
Ole Miss
Furman
@ Georgia
They have gone 3-4, but 2-4 if you disregard the FCS Furman win. The offense went from averaging 526 ypg in that front end to averaging 349 ypg (excluding the Furman game). I think this is the case for a number of reasons. 1) More film. 2) Tougher Schedule. 3) Lack of depth. The scoring also shifted from 45 ppg to 21 ppg in those same blocks. I don't think just by looking at that total stats this season that it paints a clear picture of what this offense is at the current time.
Auburn has achieved much of their offensive success on the ground. How will they perform when the ground game is taken away from them, as Alabama does to virtually every opponent? I don't think they will fare well. Most teams haven't when you look at the 9.91 ppg that the Alabama defense allows per game. Todd has done pretty well at QB for Auburn this season but he doesn't what it takes to beat Alabama or keep it a one score game late in the fourth if he has to do too much, which he will be forced to do if the numbers hold true. Scoring rarely comes easy against Bama as they are second nationally in red zone defense. What is even more mind boggling, is that Alabama has only allowed 19 drives this season that entered the red zone. They have allowed just 3 rushing TD's, 4 passing TD's, 6 FG's and have goose egged 6 of those drives. Auburn has been one of the nation's best in red zone offense, but I touched on their offensive production as the year progressed a bit earlier. Ben Tate is going to be relied upon big time for Auburn in this game and he made the mistake of running his mouth and likely fired up what is already a pretty nasty defense:
"I know I'm the best back in the state,'' Tate said. "I bet, if you went and broke down film and asked teams in the SEC who is the best back in the state, I mean, I feel like it's me.''
He will have his work cut out for him. Here are his numbers so far this season:
La. Tech. - 20 carries for 117yds. 2 receptions for 10yds. (Win)
Miss. St. - 20 carries for 157yds. 1 TD (Win)
West Va. - 19 carries for 75yds. 1 reception for 5 yds. (Win)
Ball St. - 13 carries for 63yds. 3 receptions for 18 yds. (Win)
Tenn. - 22 carries for 128yds. 1 TD, 2 receptions for 17yds. (Win)
Arkansas - 22 carries for 184yds. 2 TD, 3 receptions for 16yds. (Loss)
Kentucky = 31 carries for 132yds. 1TD, (Loss)
LSU - 18 carries for 67yds. 2 receptions for 0 yds. (Loss)
Ole Miss - 25 carries for 144yds, 1 TD, 1 reception for 0 yds. (Win)
Furman - 12 carries for 75yds. 2 TD's. (Win)
Georgia - 20 carries for 67 yards, 2 receptions for 27yds. (Loss)
Total thus far: 225 carries for 1,209yds and 8 TD's, 14 receptions for 67yds.
Tate is Auburn's bell cow and ranks 9th nationally in ypg. He has 6 games with 100+ yards on the ground. The problem for Tate and the Auburn running attack is that Alabama has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in just over 30 games. They are going to have to rely on some young receivers to come up with some big plays against the Bama defense that ranks 7th nationally in INT's with 18 on the season as well as 1st in passing efficiency defense, 5th in passing defense, 1st in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense.
Auburn has 7 wins because they've been able to out score their opponents. They haven't won any games by showing the ability to stop another team on a consistent basis. It's not ideal for a team built on getting involved in shootouts to face the nation's top defense that allows less than a TD and FG per game. Auburn is going to cut block Alabama as they always do and when they do that, they lose the ability to get upfield to the next level and get a hat on a LB. That's not good when you try to run east west on this defense and attempt to make a man miss. Tate can't make anybody miss, we know that, so it's gonna come down to the frosh McCalebb who has bene sporting a bum wheel the past few games. Alabama is going to be able to play man with the Auburn receivers and let their LB's move to make plays against an OL that has struggled to get to the next level this season.
How does the Bama offense stack up against the Auburn defense?
This is one of, if not the best matchups for the Alabama offense this season. Auburn simply is putrid against the run. They rank 88th nationally in rush defense and will be squaring off against the nation's tenth ranked rushing attack at 225 ypg. Alabama will put much of the load on Hesiman hopeful mark ingram. These are just the types of games where Ingram has excelled this season. Here are a breakdown of his numbers:
Va. Tech - 26 carries for 150yds. 1 TD, 3 receptions for 35yds. 1 TD (Win)
Fla. Int.- 10 carries for 56yds. 1 TD, 4 receptions for 47yds. (Win)
N. Texas - 8 carries for 91yds. 1TD, 3 receptions for 38yds. 1 TD (Win)
Arkansas - 17 carries for 50yds. 1 TD, 3 receptions for 21yds. 1 TD (Win)
Kentucky - 22 carries for 140yds. 2 TD, 1 reception for 6yds. (Win)
Ole Miss - 28 carries for 172yds. 1 TD, 3 receptions for 16yds. (Win)
S. Carolina - 24 carries for 246yds. 1 TD, 2 receptions for 23yds. (Win)
Tennessee - 18 carries for 99yds. (Win)
LSU - 22 carries for 144yds. 5 receptions for 30yds. (Win)
Miss. St.- 19 carries for 149yds. 2 TD, 1 reception for 9 yds. (Win)
UT Chattanooga - 11 carries for 102 yards. 2 TD (Win)
Total thus far: 205 carries for 1,399yds. 12 TD's. 24 receptioins for 216yds. 3 TD's
I think that Ingram, Richardson and Alabama will be able to put up plenty of points in this game. Not only will they own a great advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball, they will be facing a defense that has allowed 6 of their 10 oppoents to exceed their scoring averages. Alabama averages 32 ppg and this statistically be the second best offense they face this season, behind Arkansas, whose strength is passing and not running where Auburn is statistically much weaker, and they put up 44 on Auburn. Auburn ranks dead last - 120th in the nation in red zone defense. They have allowed 39 trips into their red zone (Bama allowed 19), and have surrendered points on 37 of those 39 red zone trips, including 17 rushing TD's. Remember, Alabama has allowe 7 total RZ TD's this season and I haven't even mentioned the 10 passing TD's Aub has allowed in the RZ to go along with the 17 on the ground. Alabama has had their fair share of red zone struggles on offense this season(47th nationally), but this will be by in large their weakest opponent in that category.
To make matters worse for Auburn, and it's something I've stressed all season, is their lack of depth. I believe as I'm typing this, they have 3 LB's that are sure to play in this game, while they have some other guys that will be closer to game time decisions. You don't want a hobbled LB corp to be trying to run with Bama's TE's or trying to make an open field tackle on Ingram or Richardson. They are tough enough to bring down on contact as it is, let alone by a maligned and less talented group. The "strength" of this Auburn defense is in the secondary. I say that because that is what their numbers indicate, relative to their rush defense numbers. Having seen this group of 4 or 5 scholarship athletes play, I don't hold them in a very high regard. They are going to be forced to load the box and pull the safties up to eliminate the run, and that's where they don't wanna be, on an island with a group of receivers that are peaking at the right time of the season. The usual dilemma will be present on how to play Julio while trying to load up and stop the RB tandem. I'll tell you this, I wouldn't wanna be Ted Roof on Friday and be responsible for trying to get an extraordinary effort from his defense. Auburn allows roughly 360 ypg on defense and 27 ppg. I already mentioned where Bama ranks as far as offenses they will face this season. Auburn can't stop the run and Bama can't be stopped when they try to run. It's just an absolutely awful matchup for Auburn, but a terrific matchup when holding an Alabama ticket. McElroy looks to have benefited greatly from the bye week as he appears more poised and comfortable in the pocket. The good news is this front 7 is not as disruptive as some of the teams bama faced in the heart of the schedule, and Bama ranks 11th nationally in sacks allowed.
The advantage goes to Alabama on ST's as they have certainly turned what was once thought of as a question mark, into a strength. Bama's biggest concerns are in the kickoff coverage dept. and that is an area where Auburn will need to make the most of. Bama with the explosive edge on ST's with Arenas, who will be motivated as a senior trying to break Wes Welker's all time return record. Kiffin will likely win the Groza award this season as he is 25/28 on FG's and one of the nation's leading scorers. That's not to say that Auburn doesn't have a good kicker, they do in Wes Byrum, they just don't match the explosiveness on ST's that Arenas and Jones provide.
I'm pretty confident when I say that the talent diaprity in this Iron Bowl will never be as drastic as it is this game for another decade or so. Auburn can't field enough players to give out 85 scholarships and Alabama has future first day NFLers that haven't been able to scratch the two deep. I think this game is signficant for the control of the state that alabama has taken charge of since Saban arrived. If you dominate this state in recruiting, you are going to not only be a contender in the SEC, but likely on the Nat'l scene. The script has flipped now that Bama is probation free and not feeling the lingering effects from it when they lost 6 in a row to Auburn. Now Auburn seems to have put themselves on a "self-imposed" probation and Alabama is back on top. Much has been made of the fact that Auburn is off a bye and Bama is playing on short rest. Bama is essentially off a bye as the starters got a little work for the home crowd and then the backups got a chance to show case themselves in the 45-0 win over UTC where they held them to less than 100 yards total offense. Auburn needed the bye like they needed air. But that doesn't change who they are as a football team. You can't make steak out of SPAM, No matter how long you have to prepare it.
I'm confident that these teams are headed in opposite directions right now and Alabama has yet to play their best football. I believe this game will be used as the spring board into the SECCG and beyond. Yes, it's a bitter rivalry. Yes, Auburn will likely be in this game early. Yes, it will likely be a gloomy or rainy day as it has been for the past 50 Iron Bowls. The advantages as a team and at the individual positions are enormous for Alabama. Saban has consistently emphasized how much this game means to him and the proof is in the pudding from last season. Bama won the game 36-0 with the back ups(McElroy) getting some work and a nice TD. Bama had a 412-170 yardage edge last season and I would not be surprised at all if the gap was as large this game. To compete with Alabama, you have to be a rock in the trenches, that is certainly something that Auburn was in those 6 consecutive wins over Alabama. They are certainly far from that this year. I am confident that Alabama can win this game by two scores if they play a slightly above average game. I believe it would take Auburn's best game this season and one of Alabama's worst to make this game come down to the wire. This rivalry will likely achieve more balance in several years, but for now, Alabama gets to take out the majority of this decade's frustrations on their little brothers from down South. 34-16 Alabama
my play is....
bama-10....
play on - favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (bama) - average passing team (175-230 py/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 py/game), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game....
over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....27-5....84.4%....
the average score in these games was....team 32.2, opponent 16.9....
good luck....
