college plays for 12/1-12/3.....

[AR182]

139-105-2.......+12.91*

eventhough i went 3-7 last week, i still won some money because i hit my biggest play of the year with usc over notre dame.....


houston-3(120).....

yesterday olympic dropped this line down to 3.5...i jumped on it....

this is a revenge game for houston.....they lost in oct. at so. miss.because of a questionable ref call in that game. and eventhough houston lost, they still outgained so. miss.425 yards to 325 yards.

since that so. miss game, houston has moved a receiver to running back & now gives houston a dual threat at running back.....changed their defensive front alignment, & are now back to full strength in the defensive 2ndary....& should be able to contain so. miss's modest offense.

the houston qb has completed 68% of his passes & has thrown 25 tds & only 3 ints. for the entire year......& i feel that houston should be able to move the ball against an over-rated so. miss. defense that allows teams to run the ball at close to 5 yards per carry.

houston is 6-1 su/ats at home & is scoring about 37 points per game at home.

in 5 games vs. winning teams, so. miss.is 1-4 (win against houston)...scoring an average of 13 points per game & allowing 27 points per game...so. miss. is 3-20 ats vs. avenging teams when they allow 27 or more points, including 0-11 ats when their opponent is off a win.

a computer research site that i use simulates games & estimates scores of games to be played......for all of the past games where the posted line were similar to this game, & where the final game stats were comparable to their estimator's projections....the favorite (houston) covered the spread 28 times while the dog(so. miss) covered the spread 7 times.....which means that the favorite covered the spread 80% of the time.

good luck.

 

[Juu3]

got 'em at 6, you think that's to many?

 

[AR182]

got 'em at 6, you think that's to many?

i can't advise you when to bet a game but i think they win by more than 7...

good luck.

 

[boilermaker]

Good Luck AR. Great line you got on the game. I played it thru my local at 5'. :shrug:

 

[Irish]

With you on Houston... good luck tonight and this weekend.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Destructor D]

Typically agree with your plays, but the whole world is backing Houston and Southern Miss has the far better athletes on defense. I bought Southern Miss to +7 so it could land between 4-6 points and we would both be winners.

 

[AR182]

a site that i use that monitors action (not a sportsbook) has....


of a little over 39,000 bets...

52% on houston
48% on so. miss

books are starting to come back down as pinnacle has the line at 5.....that's because these games between these 2 teams are usually close.

good luck.

 

[brooklynkid]

GL tonight everyone...being a Houston alum you know what side I am on....lol

 

[AR182]

thanks brroklynkid...appreciate it.

are you from brooklyn ?....if so i'm from sheepshead bay....

hit my big bet on houston....adding a smaller bet for tomorrow....


ucla+14(120)...

first let me say that i hope usc wins this game, but of course doesn't cover. i think this is going to be an awfully tough game for usc. they are coming off 3 emotional home wins against 3 tough opponents in oregon, calif., & notre dame. now they are on the road (i know they don't have to travel far) to play a team that is seeking revenge from an humiliating defeat last year..... & a team that has a very tough defense.on the other hand ucla has had an extra week to prepare for this game & is coming off 2 good wins over oregon st. & arizona st & has momentum of it's own.

some trends/systems favoring this play....

since 1980, home dogs of 3 points or more are 9-1ats in this series.

from game 9 on, play on a home dog of 7.5-24.5 points with 9+ days rest off a su loss in the last matchup vs.an opponent not off a su loss of 9+ points.....since 1980 the ats record of this system is 26-0.


good luck.

 

[cruisin]

thanks brroklynkid...appreciate it.

are you from brooklyn ?....if so i'm from sheepshead bay....

hit my big bet on houston....adding a smaller bet for tomorrow....


ucla+14(120)...

first let me say that i hope usc wins this game, but of course doesn't cover. i think this is going to be an awfully tough game for usc. they are coming off 3 emotional home wins against 3 tough opponents in oregon, calif., & notre dame. now they are on the road (i know they don't have to travel far) to play a team that is seeking revenge from an humiliating defeat last year..... & a team that has a very tough defense.on the other hand ucla has had an extra week to prepare for this game & is coming off 2 good wins over oregon st. & arizona st & has momentum of it's own.

some trends/systems favoring this play....

since 1980, home dogs of 3 points or more are 9-1ats in this series.

from game 9 on, play on a home dog of 7.5-24.5 points with 9+ days rest off a su loss in the last matchup vs.an opponent not off a su loss of 9+ points.....since 1980 the ats record of this system is 26-0.


good luck.

Is this your only play for Sat?

 

[AR182]

Is this your only play for Sat?

no....i also played w. virginia..but am holding off posting it for a few reasons. will know more about the whether i'm keeping it by tomorrow.

 

[Smitty]

al, i have some bad news for you... i love ucla. wouldn't even be completely shocked by an outright upset. but i haven't been right very often this year.

 

[AR182]

al, i have some bad news for you... i love ucla. wouldn't even be completely shocked by an outright upset. but i haven't been right very often this year.

smitty...i am rooting for usc tomorrow but really think they will be in for a tough game...possible upset wouldn't totally shock me.

 

[brooklynkid]

AR,
I went to Erasmus....
I grew up Church and McDonald Aves...
I worked on a few of the boats in Sheepshead Bay as a summer job.

My line has dropped to USC-12 at both my places

 

[blgstocks]

Thanks for the post AR, congrats on houston win tonight

I will tail you on UCLA....26-0 is too much to argue against, Any thoughts or trends on the under?

 

[Cie]

GL this week, AR. I tried to get on UCLA plus 2 TDs, but moved on it too late...........now at +11.5.

 

[ajoytoy]

al, gl today sir

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it.

brooklynkid....know that area very well....did alot of business there....


adding another small play.....

w. virginia-9.5(120)....

here we have a #15 (w. virginia) team as a dd favorite over a #13 (rutgers) team.

rutgers has the incentive today to win & be eligible for a bcs bowl.....perhaps the only thing w. vir. is playing for is a better bowl slot,but yet they are a dd favorite.

the reason why wv is a dd favorite is because rutgers doesn't match up well with wv. wv's defensive weakness is their 2ndary, & rutgers has a very mediocre passing attack at best. if rutgers is forced to win this game through the air,i don't think that he can do it.and eventhough rutgers has a good defense, i think wv has the offensive balance to be able to move the ball on the rutgers defense.

here are a few angles that pertain to this play....

play on any college home favorite of -7> points off a su home favorite loss vs. an opponent off a dd win in which they scored 23> points...

since 1980 the ats record is 22-3....88%

play on w. virginia.

finally,the same computer research site that i mentioned in the houston write-up... simulated games & estimated scores for all of the past games where the posted line were similar to this game, & where the final game stats were comparable to their estimator's projections....the favorite (w. virginia) covered the spread 20 times while the dog(rutgers) covered the spread 5 times.....which means that the favorite covered the spread 80% of the time.

good luck.

 

[ThrowinPicks]

GL AR - WV should be ready today.

 

[AR182]

thanks tp...good luck to you also.

adding another small play....

fla.(ml)...

alot of good cappers are taking ark. today & i can see why....mcfadden is truly a great runner, probably the best runner in college football. but i keep going back to the ark. qb play against lsu & how poorly their 2ndary looked last week. imo, ark. is not balanced enough to win today.

in talking about this game,i've read that people aren't impressed with how fla. has played this year. it seems that they aren't winning by big enough scores.

but looking at the stats of both teams, fla.has played better than ark....

these stats are from a site that i use....

fla.has averaged 6.6 yppl. this season, while allowing 4.4 yppl to a schedule of teams that rate at .2 yppl BETTER than average.

ark.has averaged 6.6 yppl. this season, while allowing 4.8 yppl. to a schedule of teams that rate at .2 yppl WORSE than average.

here are a few angles/trends that support this play...

play against a conference championship/bowl team (not a dog of more than 7 points) seeking revenge for 4 su losses in the last 4 matchups vs, an opponent not off a conference road dog game....since 1980 these teams are 0-9 su/ats. the most recent example of this angle was last year when vt was a 2 td favorite over fla. st in the acc championship games....& fla. st. won su 27-22


play on - all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (fla.) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season.

last 10 seasons the ats record is...35-10....77.8%.


play on - all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (fla.) - outgaining their opponents by 2.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.

the last 5 seasons the ats record is...29-8...78.4%


play on - all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (fla) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record.

the last 10 seasons the ats record is...28-9...75.7%


good luck.