college plays for week #7....

[AR182]

51-35

coming off a good week....hope to continue it....1st play...


bowling green...ml...

last week bg lost as a double digit favorite to e. michigan & i think they were just flat. they were coming off 2 away games at boise & at wyoming & were probably thinking about anything other than lowly e. mich. meanwhile akron beat kent st in 2 ot...& if the situation warrants it i like to make a play against a team coming off an ot game. think bg will be ready to play & should be looking to put last week's game behind them....

a few trends...

bg is 12-3 against the money line after a game where they forced no turnovers since 1992.

bg is 8-2 against the money line in road games off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite since 1992.

akron is 1-9 against the money line after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

a system that supports this play...

play against - home underdogs vs. the money line (akron) - poor rushing team (100-140 ry/game) against a terrible rushing team (<=100 ry/game), after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.

since 1992 the the record is.....25-1........96.2%

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is.....19-0


good luck

 

[arrow]

glad to see your doing we'll, good luck, ARROW:toast:

 

[blaster]

NICE WORK AR. YOU CAUGHT MY INTREST WITH THIS BG PLAY.:SIB NICE HIT WITH ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
CONTINUED SUCESS, BLASTER

 

[ajoytoy]

keep it going this week Al

 

[wareagle]

continued success you old fart:mj06:

 

[Irish]

AR,
51-35... can I have some of what you drinking. I have to grind to get ahead on the weekends.

akron is 1-9 against the money line after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

Akron (3-3) 10 0 7 7 6 30
Kent State (1-5) 7 14 0 3 3 27

The zips might be a little flat after that battle.

GL this weekend

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....even you too wareagle...:142smilie

adding.....


nw+3....

i realize that nw hasn't really been tested yet this year because the top offensive team that they faced has been duke...so the fact that they have 17 sacks & allows 112 rushing yards per game (3.4ypr) may be skewed....but i was more impressed with nw's win over iowa (on the road) than i was with msu's win over the hawks (at home).

i think this is a very good situational play for the cats.they are coming off a bye while msu played a tough game last week. nw is 7-0 ats their last 7 off a bye....while msu is off of a revenger vs. iowa..& eventhough this game is also a revenger for msu, they have revengers on deck against ohio st, mich., & wisconsin.

also msu is 9-24 in last 33 su on the road in big 10 games....



good luck

 

[dannyray]

always enjoy reading you posts and info AR....liking NW here as well this week...best of luck and continue the success !!

 

[Morris]

GL this weekend AR. I'm still keeping track of the go against OT losers. There are a few go against this weekend and Kent St is one So Miss another. I will start a separate thread for that.

 

[big papi]

thanks guys....even you too wareagle...:142smilie

adding.....


nw+3....

i realize that nw hasn't really been tested yet this year because the top offensive team that they faced has been duke...so the fact that they have 17 sacks & allows 112 rushing yards per game (3.4ypr) may be skewed....but i was more impressed with nw's win over iowa (on the road) than i was with msu's win over the hawks (at home).

i think this is a very good situational play for the cats.they are coming off a bye while msu played a tough game last week. nw is 7-0 ats their last 7 off a bye....while msu is off of a revenger vs. iowa..& eventhough this game is also a revenger for msu, they have revengers on deck against ohio st, mich., & wisconsin.

also msu is 9-24 in last 33 su on the road in big 10 games....



good luck

Like NW as well line is now +1.5!

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....


adding.....

ohio st.-18(120)....

i know some cappers believe that the last second win by osu last week may cause them to be flat this week...but i don't. i think it will have the opposite effect on osu & last week was the coming out party of the next superstar in college football. with terrell pryor now at qb & wells at running back, i think we will start seeing an explosive offense...starting saturday.

as of now osu is averaging about 186 rushing yards a game (that includes the 71 rushing yards against usc) at 4.7 ypr.....on the other hand purdue ranks #104th in the nation in rushing defense allowing about 197 yds. per game at 5ypr.

on the other side of the ball, purdue is not the same offense that joe tiller is known for...& their qb, painter is ranked # 83 natinwide in passing efficiency averaging 245 ypg with a 5-5 td/int ratio....they run the ball on average of 117 yds per game at 3.9 ypr....defensively osu is ranked #21 nationwide in pass defense with a 7-9 td/int.ratio....on the ground osu allows about 78 yds per game & 3 ypr.

a trend that i like is that osu is 8-0 ats in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=425 yards/game since 1992.

i think this game sets up to be a woodshed beating by osu.....& i hope that they learned to keep the backdoor shut after the minn. game...


good luck

 

[AR182]

Like NW as well line is now +1.5!

no kidding..i haven't looked at the lines today...

 

[AR182]

GL this weekend AR. I'm still keeping track of the go against OT losers. There are a few go against this weekend and Kent St is one So Miss another. I will start a separate thread for that.

yeah i know morris...i already took ohio...

 

[AR182]

adding....

usc-26(120).....

i think this also has the potential of a rout because like purdue, az. st. is one dimensional on offense & imo teams cannot stay with teams like osu or usc without balanced offenses.

last week asu suffered their 3rd straight loss & are now 1-8 ats in their last 9. they have been unable to run the ball this year..ranking 111th nationwide in rushing offense & over the last 2 games they averaged 37.5 yards per game on the ground....while usc's defense allows an average of 85 rushing yards per game & 2.4 ypr....& the usc defense allows just 223 total yds. per game at home.

although usc qb sanchez hurt his knee again last week against oregon, i read that he is expected to play & even if he doesn't play, mustain can do the job. although stat wise asu seems to be able to stop the run, i don't think that is a true reflection of their run defense. they did hold calif. last week to just 79 rushing yards, but i will discount that because of cali. injuries at running back...& i think the 179 rushing yards given to georgia at 4.5 ypr is more in line of what they will allow to usc, which ran for 164 yds. against ohio st at 5 ypr. i just think that usc will be able to wear the asu team down & win this game comfortably because they have to move up in the polls in order to play in the bcs championship.

usc is 12-3 ats in home games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival since 1992.

usc is 13-3 ats in home games after a win by 28 or more points since 1992.

asu is 1-8 ats vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.

asu is 0-6 ats versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.


play against - a road team (asu) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.....30-8........78.9%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is.......21-4......84%


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding...

under 53(120) toledo / mich.....

imo the total on this game seems high....because after 5 games, mich.still seems to be struggling offensively as evidenced by the fact that they are only averaging about 292 total yards per game & about 3 tos a game. toledo is also struggling offensively & have gone 7 qtrs. without scoring a td.

play under - any team against the total (mich) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in the first half of the season.

over the last 10 seasons the situations record is......35-6......85.4%

the average total posted in these games was: 52.5

the average score in these games was: team 19, opponent 24.7 (total points scored = 43 ) the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (75% of all games.)

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is....20-1......95%


good luck

 

[Blackman]

Putting heads as I like Ringer to put up big numbers against NW, but your reasoning is very sound and I hope I'm not overlooking the importance of that bye week for the Wildcats.

Best of luck this week AR.

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

gl this week ar1 :toast:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

adding....

n.carolina -6.5 (120).....

both of these teams are much improved over last year. but the problem that i see with nd is that they are unable to run the ball with any consistency as they are averaging only 104 rushing yards per game. n. carolina is a little better running the ball, but they are almost 1 ypr better on defense. n. carolina also has a better pass defense than nd as they rank #1 in the nation with ints (12). i also think that nc is a faster team than nd.

also nd?s four wins have come over teams with a cumulative record of 8-13.

nc is 7-0 ats when playing against a top-level team (win % > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.


play on - home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (nc) - off a home win by 17 points or more, in the first half of the season.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is....43-15......74.1%

here is another system that you may have to read a few times to follow (i did)...lol

play on any non-conference home favorite (nc) of 18.0 or less that is off back-to-back su/ats wins, the last of which they scored 34 points or more, they have won 10 or more of their last 22 games, and is facing an opponent off a favorite ATS win that they covered by 17.0 points or less is.....0-15 su/ats since 1980. the favorite has won those 15 games by an average of 25.3 points per game.


good luck

 

[AR182]

Putting heads as I like Ringer to put up big numbers against NW, but your reasoning is very sound and I hope I'm not overlooking the importance of that bye week for the Wildcats.

Best of luck this week AR.

blackman...

you may be right..but i think the situation favors nw & i think mich. st. is over-rated at this point.

but we shall see...

good luck also

 

[freelancc]

regarding ASU-USC game; Is Rudy Carpenter OUT for this game...:shrug: