Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks
Preview:
The Colts perfect season came to an end last week, after losing a home game against another quality team. Their offense took time to get things started, while their defense finally started to show signs of vulnerability. Did the Chargers just lay out the blueprint to how to beat the Colts, or did they just catch them at the right time? One thing is for certain, the loss last week pretty much cemented the notion that the Colts are going to rest their starters at some point in tomorrow?s game. The question is how far into the game?
The Seahawks are riding on top the NFC, as they have put together one of the most lethal offenses, and a defense that might be the best at getting after the quarterback. With a victory, the Seahawks could clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. With a victory, they could also put forth a statement that they are a legitimate contender for the Super Bowl ring, and the AFC isn?t the only conference with good teams. Can the Seahawks play the role of opportunist by catching the Colts when they have nothing to play for, or will that be the kiss of death, making them come in overconfident?
Play: Colts +10
Comment:
Pros:
Before fundamentally breaking down this game, one has to decipher how long they think the Colts will leave their starters in. After losing their last game and being a big underdog in this game, the first thing the Colts want to avoid is to enter the playoffs losing at least 2 of their last three regular season games. So right off the bat, one has to think the Colts starters will play a decent amount of time. Secondly, the Colts play the Cardinals next week to close out the season. One would assume they plan to rest their starters the entire game next week. They then have a bye the week after. That means tomorrow will more than likely be the last time the Colts starters step on the field in the next three weeks. Another thing the Colts want to avoid is allowing their starters to enter the playoffs rusty and out or rhythm. For that reason as well, one has to assume the Colts starters will play a decent amount of time tomorrow. Lastly, prior to a couple of days ago, one would assume that the Colts had a huge psychological disadvantage. They took a big blow last week, entering last Sunday with the biggest emotional high in sports, and leaving 4 hours later with the biggest emotional letdown. With a lack of importance tomorrow?s game provides to the Colts, it would be safe to say the Colts wouldn?t be playing with a lot of intensity. However, with the tragic news of Dungy?s son, one would assume the Colts would like to put forth an inspirational performance for the Dungy family. Since I deem it selfishly wrong to use such a tragedy as a handicapping tool, I will leave it at that. Now let?s break this game down fundamentally to see if the Colts and the points are worth the risk.
As long as the Colts starters stay on the field, they will score points. The Seahawks secondary is full of injuries, and lack the talent and experience to keep up with such a methodical and explosive passing game. Expect them to use a lot of three receiver sets to force the Seahawks to put as many corners on the field as possible. Since the Colts have nothing to play for, also expect them to utilize more max protect schemes to give Manning and Sorgi more time in the pocket. The main key to the Chargers victory last week was the ability to pressure Manning. The Seahawks lead the league in sacks, so one would initially assume the Colts quarterbacks are in trouble once again. However, the max protect schemes will certainly help buy time. Also the Colts protection problems stemmed from the offensive lines difficulties of picking up linebackers in the 3-4 alignment. This is an alignment the Seahawks rarely use, and the Colts are usually the best offensive line in football when it comes to protecting their quarterback. Although James isn?t expected to play much, he is replaced by a more than adequate backup that could be starting for many teams. Expect Rhodes ability to run and catch out of the backfield prevent the Colts from becoming one dimensional and allow the Seahawks to tee off on the quarterback.
The Seahawks might have the best offense when playing at home. This initially doesn?t bode well for a Colts team that is expected to rest their starters most of the game. However, the Colts have outstanding depth on defense, and great team speed. The Seahawks are a methodical offense that relies on a patient running sytem and passing game that chips away yards. The Colts are one of the hardest teams to beat utilizing short passes, as their team speed, swarming defense, and tackling skills makes it hard to consistently beat them with short plays. The Colts are ranked second in football in points allowed, making it attractive to take them and the double digit points no matter how long they leave their starters out on the field.
Let?s be honest, the most attractive thing regarding betting the Colts tomorrow is not the fundamentals, rather the points and value that comes along with them. It?s hard to pass them up when getting double digits, and I will take my chances.
Cons:
This line has trap written all over it. And in this case, I am going against the trap. Line makers elected to open the line at 7.5, which was initially deemed pricey. The public also seemed to agree, as they pounded the Colts. However, the big blocks weren?t buying it, as the big block ratio on this game was 4.5 to 1 by Thursday night. Odds makers elected to move up the line by 2.5 points, even if they knew the public was already pounding the Colts at 7.5. So if there was a trap this week, I would deem the Colts as the trap. Very seldom (first time this year) do I elect to fall into the potential trap.
Then there is the obvious fundamental disadvantages that go against the Colts. Sorgi is an obviously astronomical drop off to Manning. He has not been effective in his career, and has only taken 17 snaps this season. The Seahawks (proven against the Eagles) could be deadly against inexperienced quarterbacks. They also have the ability to create a lot of turnovers, and also turn those turnovers into touchdowns. Harrison is hurting, and was announced out for this game earlier today. The Colts defense is stockpiled with injuries and will more than likely rest their starters for the majority of the game. Their best asset on defense is their speed. However, it will be easily neutralized by the Seahawks on Saturday. First of all, they have one of the best lines in football, which will offset the Colts ability to put pressure on the opposing quarterback. Secondly, they utilize a zone running scheme that is extremely effective against defenses with the tendency to over pursue. Lastly, the Seahawks use a lot of three and five step drops which enable Hassleback to get the ball out quickly. All these factors do not bode well for the Colts, even when their starters are on the field.
Conclusion:
Rarely do you see the best team in football get double digit points. Even by playing the back ups for most of the game, and even with nothing to play for, one has to look long and hard in considering the Colts into their card tomorrow. Expect the Colts to play inspired ball for Dungy, and expect them not to lay down for the Seahawks like line makers want you to believe. Rarely do I go against a potential trap, but when it?s on the best team in football, I am more than willing to add this game in a full slated card.
Preview:
The Colts perfect season came to an end last week, after losing a home game against another quality team. Their offense took time to get things started, while their defense finally started to show signs of vulnerability. Did the Chargers just lay out the blueprint to how to beat the Colts, or did they just catch them at the right time? One thing is for certain, the loss last week pretty much cemented the notion that the Colts are going to rest their starters at some point in tomorrow?s game. The question is how far into the game?
The Seahawks are riding on top the NFC, as they have put together one of the most lethal offenses, and a defense that might be the best at getting after the quarterback. With a victory, the Seahawks could clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. With a victory, they could also put forth a statement that they are a legitimate contender for the Super Bowl ring, and the AFC isn?t the only conference with good teams. Can the Seahawks play the role of opportunist by catching the Colts when they have nothing to play for, or will that be the kiss of death, making them come in overconfident?
Play: Colts +10
Comment:
Pros:
Before fundamentally breaking down this game, one has to decipher how long they think the Colts will leave their starters in. After losing their last game and being a big underdog in this game, the first thing the Colts want to avoid is to enter the playoffs losing at least 2 of their last three regular season games. So right off the bat, one has to think the Colts starters will play a decent amount of time. Secondly, the Colts play the Cardinals next week to close out the season. One would assume they plan to rest their starters the entire game next week. They then have a bye the week after. That means tomorrow will more than likely be the last time the Colts starters step on the field in the next three weeks. Another thing the Colts want to avoid is allowing their starters to enter the playoffs rusty and out or rhythm. For that reason as well, one has to assume the Colts starters will play a decent amount of time tomorrow. Lastly, prior to a couple of days ago, one would assume that the Colts had a huge psychological disadvantage. They took a big blow last week, entering last Sunday with the biggest emotional high in sports, and leaving 4 hours later with the biggest emotional letdown. With a lack of importance tomorrow?s game provides to the Colts, it would be safe to say the Colts wouldn?t be playing with a lot of intensity. However, with the tragic news of Dungy?s son, one would assume the Colts would like to put forth an inspirational performance for the Dungy family. Since I deem it selfishly wrong to use such a tragedy as a handicapping tool, I will leave it at that. Now let?s break this game down fundamentally to see if the Colts and the points are worth the risk.
As long as the Colts starters stay on the field, they will score points. The Seahawks secondary is full of injuries, and lack the talent and experience to keep up with such a methodical and explosive passing game. Expect them to use a lot of three receiver sets to force the Seahawks to put as many corners on the field as possible. Since the Colts have nothing to play for, also expect them to utilize more max protect schemes to give Manning and Sorgi more time in the pocket. The main key to the Chargers victory last week was the ability to pressure Manning. The Seahawks lead the league in sacks, so one would initially assume the Colts quarterbacks are in trouble once again. However, the max protect schemes will certainly help buy time. Also the Colts protection problems stemmed from the offensive lines difficulties of picking up linebackers in the 3-4 alignment. This is an alignment the Seahawks rarely use, and the Colts are usually the best offensive line in football when it comes to protecting their quarterback. Although James isn?t expected to play much, he is replaced by a more than adequate backup that could be starting for many teams. Expect Rhodes ability to run and catch out of the backfield prevent the Colts from becoming one dimensional and allow the Seahawks to tee off on the quarterback.
The Seahawks might have the best offense when playing at home. This initially doesn?t bode well for a Colts team that is expected to rest their starters most of the game. However, the Colts have outstanding depth on defense, and great team speed. The Seahawks are a methodical offense that relies on a patient running sytem and passing game that chips away yards. The Colts are one of the hardest teams to beat utilizing short passes, as their team speed, swarming defense, and tackling skills makes it hard to consistently beat them with short plays. The Colts are ranked second in football in points allowed, making it attractive to take them and the double digit points no matter how long they leave their starters out on the field.
Let?s be honest, the most attractive thing regarding betting the Colts tomorrow is not the fundamentals, rather the points and value that comes along with them. It?s hard to pass them up when getting double digits, and I will take my chances.
Cons:
This line has trap written all over it. And in this case, I am going against the trap. Line makers elected to open the line at 7.5, which was initially deemed pricey. The public also seemed to agree, as they pounded the Colts. However, the big blocks weren?t buying it, as the big block ratio on this game was 4.5 to 1 by Thursday night. Odds makers elected to move up the line by 2.5 points, even if they knew the public was already pounding the Colts at 7.5. So if there was a trap this week, I would deem the Colts as the trap. Very seldom (first time this year) do I elect to fall into the potential trap.
Then there is the obvious fundamental disadvantages that go against the Colts. Sorgi is an obviously astronomical drop off to Manning. He has not been effective in his career, and has only taken 17 snaps this season. The Seahawks (proven against the Eagles) could be deadly against inexperienced quarterbacks. They also have the ability to create a lot of turnovers, and also turn those turnovers into touchdowns. Harrison is hurting, and was announced out for this game earlier today. The Colts defense is stockpiled with injuries and will more than likely rest their starters for the majority of the game. Their best asset on defense is their speed. However, it will be easily neutralized by the Seahawks on Saturday. First of all, they have one of the best lines in football, which will offset the Colts ability to put pressure on the opposing quarterback. Secondly, they utilize a zone running scheme that is extremely effective against defenses with the tendency to over pursue. Lastly, the Seahawks use a lot of three and five step drops which enable Hassleback to get the ball out quickly. All these factors do not bode well for the Colts, even when their starters are on the field.
Conclusion:
Rarely do you see the best team in football get double digit points. Even by playing the back ups for most of the game, and even with nothing to play for, one has to look long and hard in considering the Colts into their card tomorrow. Expect the Colts to play inspired ball for Dungy, and expect them not to lay down for the Seahawks like line makers want you to believe. Rarely do I go against a potential trap, but when it?s on the best team in football, I am more than willing to add this game in a full slated card.
