Computer Selections - 10/2-10/4

[#cruncher]

Last Week: 11-04
Year To Date: 28-33

First team listed is the selection.

Wisconsin -1.5 at Penn St
Northwestern +10.0 vs Minnesota
N Carolina +7.5 vs N C State
Tennessee +2.0 at Auburn
Memphis -10.0 vs UAB
Michigan -2.5 at Iowa
Cincinnati -7.5 vs So Mississippi
Texas Tech -6.0 vs Texas A&M
San Jose St +3.0 at Rice
UTEP +12.5 at SMU
UNLV -3.5 at Neveda
Temple +4.0 at Middle Tennessee
New Mexico St -10.5 vs Idaho

Overall, it looks like it could be a tough week to play. I hope I am wrong.

 

[skillrules]

What program do you use? Are you a programmer?

 

[#cruncher]

I am definitely not a programmer and I don't use any program...as a matter of fact I quit even using the computer...just pencil and simple calculator. I have been at this for a while, but that doesn't necessarily mean a thing.

 

[yak merchant]

My computer has alot of those. On the other side of San Jose, and numbers favor Idaho and Texas A&M, but computer likes most of yours. Good luck.

 

[skillrules]

Thanks cruncher. I assume you use some kind of equation based on specific stats at a weighted amount.

While Ive always assumed that pure numbers as a way of handicapping football would probably not produce great numbers, I have wondered what it would be like to create a program with the ability to run it through every D1 game from the past 10 years and then tweak. Then run it again. If I would come up with something that produced like 57%, I might give it a try for a year. It would also be interesting to see how the program would deviate from year to year within that 10 year trial span.

But there would always have to be human handicapping for injuries , especially to QBs or "leaders", as well as other non numerical data

Maybe I should just go find my calculator and start with that.

 

[#cruncher]

Thanks Yak, that makes me feel better...I know you have been on some hot streaks before...fwiw (non-number wise) Tech/A&M, Rice/SJS games scare me...A&M has lost 2 in a row to 2 very good teams...and some of those WAC games where the road team has a long way to travel...well, the road team doesn't seem to do so well sometimes...but I quit trying to out-guess this stuff a while back

 

[#cruncher]

SkillRules,

I'm not so sure any computer program would do much over 55% in the long run, even the best of them. However, when a number or computer player happens to get more than his share of the breaks and/or happen to end up on the right motivational side of a game (which is pure luck also) then he could possibly do 65% or maybe even a tad better for a specific period of time.