Concerning Vogelsong

[talos]

He has played 33.1 innings on 5 days rest. Result
0-3 with a 7.83 ERA this year. Still thinking about this. Padre team total? Padres? Padres are generally low scoring. Might just go with Padres first half. Need to look more at the Padre pitcher. GL

 

[talos]

Just read in Gilmo574's blog (very credible) that in Vogelsong's 15 home starts a run has been scored in the first inning 13 times so will take Yes on the first inning run prop.

 

[comfortable1]

Good stuff... liking the Padres 1H myself.
Thanks!

 

[talos]

Did first half and game. SF off Dodger game which meant a lot. Vogelsong 1-4 last 5 giving up a ton of runs might be a low priority with Petit and Cain closing the season next 2. GL

 

[talos]

Changed my mind. Sticking with first 5. History is against me here and the Smith win at Atlanta is suspect. Smith playing in a new park and having some problems walking people. First half is the best shot at a plus and I will let the game take care of itself especially as the Padre pen took 4 innings last night to Dodger 2.
Also now that I am waking up I believe tomorrow Cashner goes for the Padres their true staff ace which is another negative.

 

[talos]

Homer Bailey is on 5 days rest
On 5 days rest he is
5-2 with a 2.78 ERA

Burnett is on 5 days
2-3 4.14 ERA
1-5 last 6 away

Pitt is great on a day off 12-4 record
Reds are off 2 home losses
Playing Reds

 

[talos]

James Shields in his last 4 road games has gone 28.1 innings and given up 3 runs.
Sale in his last 6 home games has had 4 great starts and 2 bad ones. KC bats not too hot now with no incentive. Last 3 Sale games vs KC 24 innings 2 runs.
Meals the ump. No record with Sale poor record with Shields but only game this year Shields 9 innings 3 runs.
Something can always happen but think under 6.5 reasonable. Quoting Covers under is 23-3 last 26 with these teams

 

[talos]

Parlaying Oregon State ML to under 3.5 first half in Cubs Cards. Not a fan of juice and I am hitting Oregon State hard minus 10.5. Wood on the road first half has been a Machine under as well as good dog

 

[talos]

First half and game bets on Astros
Yanks not really too interested in these games.
Astro's going with best pitcher on an endless losing streak. Tomorrow Yanks show for Pettiitte. Today not so much. Astro starter very good but not as good on 6 days rest. Pure situational play.

 

[talos]

Half unit under plays in Toronto and Houston based on major under umps. Was interested in those directions to start.

 

[talos]

Boston scored 5 runs in the first inning. Playing Seattle under 6.5. Oakland can not catch Boston now. Expect a quiet game.
If Baltimore turns this around i may regret it

 

[talos]

Run off Houston under. Bet too fast. We have no idea who Yanks will use out of pen and after recent games with Tampa may not be interested in beating Houston today but probably do want to score some runs. Poor spot while Seattle and Ws are good ones.

 

[talos]

Starting to look like a disaster. Sorry

 

[talos]

Bets were not honest. Felix only went 4 innings last start and was 2-8 last 10. Oakland had beat him last 2 at Seattle. Felix 1-5 last 6 at home. Just take the better team. I could go on but the bottom line is I made a lot of weak bets. Fading Volsong might have been fine with a real starter but Smiith not really part of the Padres with 3 starts. The Atlanta road game mostly smoke and mirrors. First half over covered all bases.
Did cash 2 first inning bets and had Atlanta under first half under but a disaster is still a disaster.
Bottom line as always is play starters you really trust which I did not do.
Probably will post tomorrow and hopefully do better.