Conf Finals ~~ Picks + Props

LordofBalls

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 31, 2006
9,137
793
113
California
hi guys, hope you're healthy and after tomorrow's games I hope I'm happy! :p
My site doesn't put Props up until Game Day.
Lines are usually exaggerated by my site, so I often have to wait til right before gm, and use the "Live" site.

Patriots @ Denver:
Played Broncos +5.5 earlier in the week, it just seemed 'wrong' to me when the line came out so I played.
+) Patriots 0-4 Career in Playoff gms @ Denver
+) Maye 6 fumbles (3 lost) and 2 picks last week
+) Home dogs like 9-0 ATS in conf finals getting 4+ pts
-) Nix out

My take is simple:
Patriots have played good defense but been fortunate to win both games.
Chargers' offense was non-existent, and CJ Stroud was about as bad as any QB I've ever seen.
Sean Payton has had all week to bring Stidham up to speed, he's young and athletic, I expect he'll be solid.
I consider Sean Payton 1 of the best play-callers in the game.

Rams/Seattle:
This season they've played 2 very hard-fought games.
Rams won by 2 @ hm, lose by 1 @ Seattle - total yardage nearly identical.
I consider these the Top 2 teams in the league, strong defenses.
REST Advantage Seattle
QB Advantage Rams
Darnold has struggled vs Rams Defense.

IF Rams don't turn it over, Rams will WIN.
I expect a GREAT game; I expect the winning team to win the Super Bowl.

Played:
Broncos +5.5 (4u)

Parlay:
Broncos ml/OV 42.5/Rams ml <<< 133/1480


NOTE:
IF You like Rams/Broncos to win (and not the total), you can get the prop "Matchup" @ 6.75/1


Props I like:
****Stidham OV 15.5 Rush Yards --
he's mobile, if you're a lil nervous and you're trying to decide whether to throw in a tight window or run, RUN!
**Harvey OV 18.5 Rec Yards
I think screens and passes to the flats are easy ways to get you QB some "feel" for the game.
It should be Harvey and Dobbins getting those, it won't take much to break 18.5 yds
**Lutz OV 1.5 FGs

that's all I've got for now, bk tomorrow!

gl to US!!!

LoB
 
  • Like
Reactions: PJ12

LordofBalls

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 31, 2006
9,137
793
113
California
7-7 @ halftime... could easily be 13-7 or 13-10 Broncos. (I'm rooting for the OV 42.5)

Props I've got:
*Stidham OV 15.5 Rush yds (he's at 15) -- 125/113
*Harvey OV 21.5 rec yds (he's at 21) -- 125/109

2h line Pats -3/20.5
 

LordofBalls

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 31, 2006
9,137
793
113
California
ADDED:

Par) RAMS ml/OV 44.5 <<< 133/368

11pt Teaser
Rams +14/OV 35/Sea +8 <<< 112/80

no props... BUT I LIKE:
*Puka ATD
*JSN OV 91.5 yds recps

well fwiw... I forgot to hit the "post" button
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top