i've been absolutely terrible in the playoffs, so fade away.
NO (-3) 2 units
under (55.5) 3 units. first of all, i'll say that if this wasn't a playoff game, i wouldn't bet on it. damn lack of discipline rears its ugly head yet again. it didn't look like the extra rest helped brees' tired arm all that much. but i think the difference is going to be kamara and ingram against a rams' defense that gave up a league-worse 5.1 yards/carry.
i'm pretty sure ndamukong suh will pick up about 4 roughing the passer penalties to extend saints drives.
in the first matchup, the saints did a decent job on gurley. because they were behind most of the game, the rams didn't run much, but gurley had 68 yards on 13 carries and 6 catches for all of 11 yards.
on the sidelines, the advantage goes to the saints. payton is solid, and knows when to be aggressive. mcvay makes some very questionable decisions, and one of those could cost his team the game today.
NE (ML) 2 units to win 3. first of all, it doesn't look like weather is going to play a huge role in this game. the "real feel" is going to be in the upper teens and actually go up to 20 during the game. and not much wind. and i'm familiar with all the knocks on the pats. they haven't been great on the road (this year, or in the playoffs in past years)...gronk is a shell of his former self... brady can't throw the ball more than 5 yards downfield (that's nothing new). this is 100% a wager against the chiefs. literally the only thing their defense does well is rush the passer. and if you get within 2 yards of brady, it's automatically roughing the passer. eric berry is back, but who knows how effective he'll be? he's going to need surgery on that heel after the season.
on the other side of the ball, mahomes is a turnover waiting to happen on every play. he makes a LOT of bad decisions, when he throws the ball late across the middle. so far, he's been very lucky on those plays. eventually those bad decisions will catch up with him. maybe it won't be today, but it will be interesting to see how he handles it if he faces any game pressure.
and the biggest reason to wager on the pats today... bill belichick vs andy reid is such a huge mismatch. if the game is close down the stretch, this is a huge advantage for the pats. andy reid does one thing well - devise offensive plays. (ok, two things. the man knows how to attack a buffet.) he is an absolutely horrible game day coach.
oh, one other thing. in what is expected to be a close game, you gotta look at the kickers. who do you trust more to make a big kick... gostkowski or butker?
it's going to pain me to root for brady and his deflated balls, but i think they're the right side today.
NO (-3) 2 units
under (55.5) 3 units. first of all, i'll say that if this wasn't a playoff game, i wouldn't bet on it. damn lack of discipline rears its ugly head yet again. it didn't look like the extra rest helped brees' tired arm all that much. but i think the difference is going to be kamara and ingram against a rams' defense that gave up a league-worse 5.1 yards/carry.
i'm pretty sure ndamukong suh will pick up about 4 roughing the passer penalties to extend saints drives.
in the first matchup, the saints did a decent job on gurley. because they were behind most of the game, the rams didn't run much, but gurley had 68 yards on 13 carries and 6 catches for all of 11 yards.
on the sidelines, the advantage goes to the saints. payton is solid, and knows when to be aggressive. mcvay makes some very questionable decisions, and one of those could cost his team the game today.
NE (ML) 2 units to win 3. first of all, it doesn't look like weather is going to play a huge role in this game. the "real feel" is going to be in the upper teens and actually go up to 20 during the game. and not much wind. and i'm familiar with all the knocks on the pats. they haven't been great on the road (this year, or in the playoffs in past years)...gronk is a shell of his former self... brady can't throw the ball more than 5 yards downfield (that's nothing new). this is 100% a wager against the chiefs. literally the only thing their defense does well is rush the passer. and if you get within 2 yards of brady, it's automatically roughing the passer. eric berry is back, but who knows how effective he'll be? he's going to need surgery on that heel after the season.
on the other side of the ball, mahomes is a turnover waiting to happen on every play. he makes a LOT of bad decisions, when he throws the ball late across the middle. so far, he's been very lucky on those plays. eventually those bad decisions will catch up with him. maybe it won't be today, but it will be interesting to see how he handles it if he faces any game pressure.
and the biggest reason to wager on the pats today... bill belichick vs andy reid is such a huge mismatch. if the game is close down the stretch, this is a huge advantage for the pats. andy reid does one thing well - devise offensive plays. (ok, two things. the man knows how to attack a buffet.) he is an absolutely horrible game day coach.
oh, one other thing. in what is expected to be a close game, you gotta look at the kickers. who do you trust more to make a big kick... gostkowski or butker?
it's going to pain me to root for brady and his deflated balls, but i think they're the right side today.
