Conference Tournments

[Senor Capper]

First off..........



Conference Tournments Trend of the Week

Play on : any College Conference Tournment team # 1 - 8 seeded dog in their 1st game off a loss vs a foe of back to back SU & ATS wins


33-11 (75%)

 

[Senor Capper]

Second........

Second........

Looking for edges in the Conference Tourneys



More and more in these days of increasing parity in college sports, conference tournaments in hoops are taking on a growing importance. Yes, the top teams in the elite leagues already know they?re going to the upcoming NCAA tourney. But an early exit in conference tourney play can hurt their seed ranking, which?with the NCAA Selection Committee now giving preferential geographical considerations to the top teams?can mean more difficult travel for both players and their fans. And remember, every team in a conference tourney has a shot at the NCAAs, regardless of its record.



San Diego State pulled three straight upsets in the Mountain West tourney last year to earn an NCAA berth. UC Santa Barbara knocked off both Irvine and Utah State (23-8 at the time) in the Big West to make it, sending both to the NIT. Heavily-favored Butler (25-4 going in) suffered the same fate after being upset by Wisconsin-Green Bay in the Horizon quarters.


Iowa, 16-14, won three straight in the Big Ten, falling just short of an NCAA berth with a loss to Ohio State in the final. Moreover, there?s often bonus money at stake for the coaches. Or, a chance for them to climb the coaching salary ladder. Or to get a better chance at the blue-chip recruits. And to land a taste of the big March Madness bucks for their schools.

Lastly, most good coaches are paranoid about seeing their players fail to ?show up? for the team?s first tourney game, suffer a quick knockout, and then never regain their regular-season momentum in the NCAAs. They?re playing harder these days, folks. Here?s where some of the pointspread edges have been the last two years.


FAVORITES vs. UNDERDOGS. Favorites have generally done better in the preliminary/opening round (40-31-1) than they have done in the quarterfinals (62-62-4), semis (38-28 the last two years, but only 97-94 the last 7), and finals (16-16-1).



HOME (AND HOME-NEUTRAL) TEAMS vs. VISITORS. Generally speaking, teams with a ?home? advantage do better in the prelim/opening round (14-8 the last two years), than in subsequent rounds (13-16 in quarters; 9-10 in semis; 2-7 finals).



REVENGE. Single-revenge favorites (i.e, teams now favored that lost the only meeting of the season or only the second meeting of the season) are a profitable 42-18 against the spread. Double-revenge favorites (lost both season meetings) are only 4-6-1. Single-revenge underdogs (loser of the only meeting of the year, or the second meeting) are 47-60-3. Double-revenge underdogs (lost both season meetings) are 49-56-2. These two-year totals in all categories are representative of tourney totals for the last seven years as well. But it?s always good to know which teams are showing good late-season form, and which coaches seem to have a knack for the ?lose and out? nature of tourney coaching.

 

[Senor Capper]

Horizon Conference Tournament preview

Horizon Conference Tournament preview

First round Tuesday, March 4 with #4 vs. #9, #5 vs. #8, and #6 vs. #7 at home of higher seed.

Quarterfinals & semifinals Friday, March 7 & Saturday, March 8 at Klotsche Center, home court of UW-Milwaukee.

Final, Tuesday, March 11, will also be at UWM should Panthers make it to title game. If not, highest remaining seed will host.

Allow UWM 4 points for playing at home.

LY?s WINNER: Ill.-Chicago -1 def. Loyola-Chicago 76-75 in OT.




TEAMS TO BEAT:

WIS.-MILWAUKEE...Explosive, unselfish Panthers (77 ppg and nearly 18 apg) are looking to nail down first-ever NCAA tourney bid. Balanced inside-outside attack, spearheaded by relentless 6-8 jr. Page (18 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 62% FGs) & versatile 6-3 sr. PG Tucker (17 ppg, more than 4 rpg & apg, nearly 2 spg), tough for any team in this field to contain. Sweet-stroking sr. G Frederick (41% treys) provides perimeter pop, and HC Pearl?s ball-hawking squad forces league-high 18 TOs pg. UWM has covered 5 of its last 6 at cozy Klotsche Center, and Panthers properly focused after going ?one-and-done? last 2 conf. tourneys.



BUTLER...Snubbed by NCAA Selection Committee (with 25 wins) after shocking 1st-round loss to Wisc.-Green Bay LY, veteran Bulldogs (RPI of 44) doubly focused. Balanced attack (all starters avg. double digits) leads conference in 3-point (40%) and FT accuracy (74%). Butler (only 10.5 TOs pg?fewest in nation!) takes proper care of ball, and its trademark swarming defense (league-low 60 ppg) tough to penetrate. Smooth sr. PG Miller is a pesky defender who thrives in pressure situations, while scouts say 6-10 sr. C Cornette (18 ppg, 71% FGs, 7.4 rpg last 5 games thru Feb. 23) playing best ball of career.




TOP CONTENDER:

ILLINOIS-CHICAGO...Sure, Flames are rebuilding somewhat, but wouldn?t count out still-dangerous UIC after it pulled 1st & 2nd-round upsets on its way to conf. title LY. Pass-first 5-10 jr. G Martell Bailey (nation-leading 8.3 apg!) & creative 6-3 swingman Banks (20 ppg) lead explosive attack (76 ppg), and springy 6-4 jr. F Armond Williams (14 ppg, 8.2 rpg) giving Flames some presence above rim. Fiery HC Collins demands (and gets) righteous defensive work ethic (near league-low FG & trey %).



DARKHORSES:

LOYOLA-CHICAGO...Potent Ramblers (75 ppg) can score in bunches with quick-as-a-wink 5-8 sr. G David Bailey (18 ppg; older brother of UIC?s Martell) and impact 6-6 juco F McMillian (15 ppg & 9 rpg), who comprise prolific perimeter-post duo. But if shots not falling (and they frequently aren?t for Bailey, who?s hitting only 36% FGs & 26% treys), Loyola offense hard-pressed to keep pace with what often-permissive defense (league-high 75 ppg) yields. Larry Farmer?s team made surprising run to tourney final LY, losing in OT to rival UIC.


DETROIT...Explosive sr. G Green (loop-leading 22.4 ppg) and blue-collar 6-7 sr. F Riggs (12 ppg, 6 rpg) have plenty of postseason experience, but they probably lack the supporting cast necessary to capture conf. crown. Still, Titans (allowing only 64 ppg & league-low 42% FGs) give 100% on defensive end, and gritty Detroit lost home games vs. UWM & Butler by only 1 and 3 points, respectively.




LONGSHOTS:

Talent-shy WRIGHT STATE, CLEVELAND STATE , YOUNGSTOWN STATE, and WISC.-GREEN BAY are combined 0-27 SU on conf. trail thru Feb. 26! ?Nuff said. Might possibly consider ?taking? with Phoenix, who return nucleus of team that advanced to semifinals LY. The other 3 each failed to cover while making 1st-round exits.

 

[Senor Capper]

Pac-10 notebook

Pac-10 notebook

Arizona secured the Pac-10 Conference regular-season title with its Bay Area sweep last week, but there is still plenty of intrigue heading into the final weekend. The Wildcats (23-2 SU, 11-11 ATS) captured their 10th Pac-10 title and became just the third team in league history to post a perfect 9-0 SU road record.



Coach Lute Olson?s team is riding an eight-game SU winning streak after beating Stanford as a 5 ?-point road favorite, 72-69. Arizona had won four in a row ATS before failing to cover versus the Cardinal.

Cal and Stanford conclude the regular season Saturday with a contest to determine second place in the Pac 10. The 22nd-ranked Golden Bears defeated 17th-ranked Stanford Jan. 4 as a one-point home favorite, 72-59.

Cal (20-6 SU, 14-9 ATS) has posted its third consecutive 20-win season for the first time in school history. However, the Golden Bears are a modest 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS their last six games after dumping Arizona State as a 3 ?-point home ?chalk,? 80-72.

Stanford opened the season picked to finish seventh in conference play. The Cardinal (22-7 SU, 17-11 ATS) have won at least 22 games six times the previous seven seasons.

Coach Mike Montgomery?s team is a solid 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS its last seven games after falling to Arizona. Stanford handed the Wildcats their lone conference loss Jan. 30 as a decided 17-point road underdog, 82-77.

The following chart breaks down conference records, how the team has done the last seven games ATS, and their Ratings Percentage Index. The RPI is crucial this time of year, often determining which teams advance to the NCAA Tournament.

School.....Conference record.....Last 7 ATS.....RPI
Arizona.....15-1...4-3.....1
California.....13-4.....3-4.....30
Stanford.....13-4.....5-1-1.....16
Oregon......10-6.....5-2.....45
Arizona State.....9-7.....3-4.....35
Oregon State.....6-10.....1-6.....153
Southern Cal.....5-11.....2-5.....110
Washington.....4-12.....5-2.....133
UCLA 4-12 3-4 152
Washington State 2-14 4-2-1 211

The above chart pretty (looks like crap) much locks up three Pac-10 teams for March Madness, while two others (Oregon and Arizona State) are likely participants. However, their seeding will be determined greatly on how they perform this week and in the Pac-10 Tournament.


Arizona State is 0-3 both SU and ATS its last three outings.(AP)
If the season ended today, Oregon and Arizona State would meet in the first round. These two teams are already slated to play Thursday at Arizona State. The Ducks routed the Sun Devils Jan. 4 as a 10-point home favorite, 94-73.

Oregon (20-7 SU, 12-13 ATS) improved to 4-1 both SU and ATS its last five outings after embarrassing UCLA as an 11 ?-point home ?chalk,? 79-48. The Ducks have recorded back-to-back 20-win seasons for the first time since posting four straight 20-win campaigns from 1936-39.

Arizona State (17-10 SU, 12-12 ATS) beat Oregon last season in Tempe as a 2 ?-point home underdog, 95-88. The Sun Devils are 10-3 SU and 6-5 ATS this year at home, beating teams by an average score of 78-65. Arizona State is playing itself into a corner after losing its last three games both SU and ATS.

Finally, the eighth and final seed will not be determined until Saturday when Washington visits UCLA. Both teams have identical conference records (4-12), while the Bruins still get to host lowly Washington State.

The Cougars manhandled the Huskies last week as a three-point home underdog, 98-76. That marked Washington State?s second conference victory of the season.

UCLA defeated Washington Jan. 2 as a three-point road underdog, 77-67. The Bruins need to defeat the Huskies Saturday to advance to the Pac-10 Tournament next week at Staples Center in Los Angeles. The winner of that contest will earn the eighth and final seed, but will have to face Arizona in the first round.

 

[TJBELL]

Great stuff bro!!! Keep it coming!!!!!:thumb: THANKS!!

 

[msutter13]

here's a single revenge fav for tonight



03/06
08:17p 747 APPALACHIAN ST. +1
748 TENN. CHAT. -1


Tennessee chat is the better team here. They have been playing well of late while appalchian st has not. Appalachian St also sports the worst defense in the leauge. Tennessee Chat lost the only meeting this season between the teams. Look for Tenn to get some revenge and cover this one easily.

 

[Mags]

Small Correction

Small Correction

Senor,

Great Info - just a small correction - the Horizon league tourney in Milwaukee will be at the US Cellular arena, not the Klotsche Center...

UWM plays there rarely, but will still certainly still enjoy a home court advantage.

The Klotsche is an on campus arena, while the US Cellular is the old home of the Bucks and is located in downtown Milw. It is an intimate setting - a great place to see a hoops game as you are right on top of the court.

Like I said, still a nice homecourt advantage for UWM, as most UWM students do not live on campus anyway - UWM is known as a "commuter" school.