I can help with the first part.
When there are early games, there is usually an early cutoff for the consensus. That's for the overall pick though, not your personal record. IF i am here, i check the consensus early. But, if there is no overall pick, i let it go until we have one. That makes the time uncertain, but i would rather have a clear pick rather than pick something that has like 2 votes. Just my opinoin.
Right now, it looks like KC might be the pick, and that still gives me about an hour to see.
Secondly, people want you to pick the best chance at winning, but i think it's agreed we don't like playing huge chalk all the time. I suggested (and others as well) that people pick games they would actually wager money on.
Hope that helps.