i just lost almost my whole effing write-up. i'll try to replicate it.
here we go again. one more k st game. i started playing on k st against miami, and i didn't stop until the last game of the season (glad i did). they went 8-1 ATS in the games i played them, with the only loss being the complete 2nd half meltdown against oklahoma. this team has been undervalued by linesmakers all season. and they have been undervalued by the computers that drive line movements all season. they have that little something extra that computers can't account for. all they do is win football games. home dogs against baylor... home dogs against missouri... home dogs against texas a&m (are you effing kidding me? they were getting 5.5 against a&m??). those lines were BEGGING for k st money. here we go again. getting anywhere from 9 - 10 from arkansas. and those of you who play like i do, know that when a line is begging for money on one team, you have to bet the other team. but k st has been the exception all season. and i'm counting on them to do it one more time. if i lose, well, they don't owe me a thing.
kansas st (+9) 3 units. i'll try to stick with the factors that may be overlooked. i'll start with motivation. arkansas plays in the best conference in the country. not even close. and their only 2 losses were against the teams playing for the NC in a few days. pretty damn impressive. and yet... they did not get invited to a BCS bowl game. how the fuck did that happen, when michigan (10-2, from the big 10) and va tech (11-2, from the acc) got bcs invites? that sugar bowl probably should have been boise vs arkansas. so playing in the cotton bowl has to be a small letdown for the hogs. and playing in cowboys stadium isn't even a big deal, because they already did that.
arkansas' pass defense has been very good this year. but that won't do them much good, as k state's success is predicated on the running game. and a lot of that is on the running of qb collin klein. he's gotta be one of the toughest collins of all time. he's not a great qb, but he is one tough sob. anyway, k st needs to be able to run the ball, and arkansas gives up 4.5 yards/carry. bill snider is a veteran coach, and i have to believe he'll be patient enough to establish a running game.
on the other side of the ball, it will be very interesting to see how k state's defense does. they started off the season fairly strong, but they gave up a LOT of points against all the spread offenses in the big 12. i have a feeling they will match up a lot better against arkansas tonight.
it's interesting to look at arkansas' schedule. obviously the fact that they only lost to lsu and alabama really stands out. but here's the 10 teams they beat:
missouri st
new mexico
troy
texas a&m (after a&m blew a huge lead, like a&m did most of the year)
auburn
ole miss
vandy
south carolina
tennessee
mississippi st
other than south carolina, that's not really a very impressive list.
this is probably just about the most extensive write-up i've ever done, and i congratulate anyone who has made it through to the end. the long and the short of it is... arkansas is definitely the "right" play. i'm sure the computers have the hogs winning by double digits. and WAY too many people are on the wildcats. but... this team has done it all year, and i expect they wil somehow get it done one more time.
under (65) 2 units. this is more of a hunch than anything else. but i actually do expect k state's defense to step up and play tough against the non-spread offense of arkansas. i can see it going something like 23-20. in fact, i think that is kansas state's best chance, to keep it fairly low-scoring.
this write-up was fueled by smuttynose quadruple (aka gravitation). what a delicious beer. :toast:
here we go again. one more k st game. i started playing on k st against miami, and i didn't stop until the last game of the season (glad i did). they went 8-1 ATS in the games i played them, with the only loss being the complete 2nd half meltdown against oklahoma. this team has been undervalued by linesmakers all season. and they have been undervalued by the computers that drive line movements all season. they have that little something extra that computers can't account for. all they do is win football games. home dogs against baylor... home dogs against missouri... home dogs against texas a&m (are you effing kidding me? they were getting 5.5 against a&m??). those lines were BEGGING for k st money. here we go again. getting anywhere from 9 - 10 from arkansas. and those of you who play like i do, know that when a line is begging for money on one team, you have to bet the other team. but k st has been the exception all season. and i'm counting on them to do it one more time. if i lose, well, they don't owe me a thing.
kansas st (+9) 3 units. i'll try to stick with the factors that may be overlooked. i'll start with motivation. arkansas plays in the best conference in the country. not even close. and their only 2 losses were against the teams playing for the NC in a few days. pretty damn impressive. and yet... they did not get invited to a BCS bowl game. how the fuck did that happen, when michigan (10-2, from the big 10) and va tech (11-2, from the acc) got bcs invites? that sugar bowl probably should have been boise vs arkansas. so playing in the cotton bowl has to be a small letdown for the hogs. and playing in cowboys stadium isn't even a big deal, because they already did that.
arkansas' pass defense has been very good this year. but that won't do them much good, as k state's success is predicated on the running game. and a lot of that is on the running of qb collin klein. he's gotta be one of the toughest collins of all time. he's not a great qb, but he is one tough sob. anyway, k st needs to be able to run the ball, and arkansas gives up 4.5 yards/carry. bill snider is a veteran coach, and i have to believe he'll be patient enough to establish a running game.
on the other side of the ball, it will be very interesting to see how k state's defense does. they started off the season fairly strong, but they gave up a LOT of points against all the spread offenses in the big 12. i have a feeling they will match up a lot better against arkansas tonight.
it's interesting to look at arkansas' schedule. obviously the fact that they only lost to lsu and alabama really stands out. but here's the 10 teams they beat:
missouri st
new mexico
troy
texas a&m (after a&m blew a huge lead, like a&m did most of the year)
auburn
ole miss
vandy
south carolina
tennessee
mississippi st
other than south carolina, that's not really a very impressive list.
this is probably just about the most extensive write-up i've ever done, and i congratulate anyone who has made it through to the end. the long and the short of it is... arkansas is definitely the "right" play. i'm sure the computers have the hogs winning by double digits. and WAY too many people are on the wildcats. but... this team has done it all year, and i expect they wil somehow get it done one more time.
under (65) 2 units. this is more of a hunch than anything else. but i actually do expect k state's defense to step up and play tough against the non-spread offense of arkansas. i can see it going something like 23-20. in fact, i think that is kansas state's best chance, to keep it fairly low-scoring.
this write-up was fueled by smuttynose quadruple (aka gravitation). what a delicious beer. :toast:
