Couple of AFL questions

[Anders]

Hi team. With the NRL taking a break this weekend apart from Origin One, have had a little more time to look closely at AFL match-ups. Will be focussing on this a lot more too once the Super 12 finishes

I know this is unlikely, but does anyone know if there is a site that tracks who covers the spread in AFL matches? I've started keeping records in the Super 12 and NRL of this to help with capping. Given the unlikelihood of such a site existing, has anyone kept a record of the lines from the first four rounds so I can compile a record?

Ultimately, I'm aiming to make this info freely available thru my own site if I can spend enough time to get one off the ground - maybe a Down Under sister site of Madjacks?

Also looks like there will be a few double-digit home dogs this weekend - Kangaroos, St Kilda, Fremantle, Collingwood. Dunno if I like any of 'em yet tho

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 04-30-2001).]

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Anders:

Will let you know if I see any. But like u said, probably unlikely.

Would imagine there are certainly some edges to be found in these lines. Just due to lack of exposure (at least in this part of the world).

Also, does long travel take place in these gms. In NFL/coll fb, I like going vs a red-hot road fav that has to go cross-country. Usually extended travel is enough to produce a dud performance. I know Australia isn't all that big, but not familiar w/ its geography.

GL and thx for your effort. Later.

 

[Anders]

Cheers Chucky

Certainly there is some big trips in Aus for teams playing the likes of West Coast Eagles and Fremantle in the AFL. Also a lot of theory had been bandied about re the best way to deal with the travel to and from South Africa (and playing at altitude) in the Super 12. As time goes by I will examine results and see if anything interesting emerges.
As you said, I believe there may be some advantages we can get from some intense homework precisely due to the lack of "who covers" background material in this part of the world.
Am in this for the long haul so happy to plug away at it bit by bit...

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 04-30-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 04-30-2001).]

 

[Fred]

Anders

Sorry don't have ATS records. I'm guessing the prolific AussieVamp2 might though.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Australia isn't all that big?

Roughly similar in size to the continental USA, so yeah, not familiar is definitely
right

Inter-country a bit different than going to WA or California, but if you are a scientific guru you would be able to come up with some stuff, I am sure.

Only way you are going to get past lines is if you work for a bookmaker that has kept them, or have kept them yourself, or know someone who has.

As far as I can tell from looking at them, the AFL lines are better than the NRL and Super 12 lines.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Think there is no chance you get double digits on Collingwood, Anders, sorry, more like a goal from my ratings

 

[AussieVamp2]

For example :-

<pre>
RATINGS LADDER
Essendon 41.42
Carlton 13.91
Hawthorn 10.63
Sydney 10.52
Melbourne 7.79
Brisbane 7.3
Port Adelaide 7.29
Richmond 4.53
Collingwood -1.26
Western Bulldogs -1.54
Geelong -7.64
Adelaide -8.34
Kangaroos -8.7
West Coast -15.22
Fremantle -29.44
St. Kilda -31.35
</pre>

 

[Fred]

Late night too huh AV

 

[AussieVamp2]

Yeah

The only site that ever did spread stuff Anders was one I did for a while, but not operational anymore - and I don't work at that place anymore either.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Like I said, not too good on my Australian geography.

Had no idea total area in Australia is comparable to that of the US.

Later, folks. GL.

 

[Anders]

Thanx guys, will hunt around a bit more and see what I can come up with.
AV - yep, might be close to +7.5 or so with Collingwood - which makes me favour the Blues at this stage. Waiting keenly for lines later today...

 

[Whale]

Hi! I know I am new here but I have lurked for a while! Been reading your write ups each week Anders and they really are second to none!! Great stuff!

Originally posted by Anders:
but does anyone know if there is a site that tracks who covers the spread in AFL matches?

None that I know of, the only link to any of this sort of info is past scores which I posted the link to in the other thread. Sportsprices (a down under Island Express) has a list of all current lines but at present has no archive facility. However I have kept a record of some of the lines.. the trouble is as the lines can vary by as much as 2-3 pts between books (or more for AFL) it is hard to decide which line to record.. I have not recorded high and lows either (should have as middle opps may be interesting).

Ultimately, I'm aiming to make this info freely available thru my own site if I can spend enough time to get one off the ground - maybe a Down Under sister site of Madjacks?

Good plan, something I have been looking at, and keeping records of a few things for, but is their enough interest?



[This message has been edited by Whale (edited 05-02-2001).]

 

[Cartman88]

Whale,

Welcome aboard. Look forward to any input you may have on the AFL.

Anders,

I don't know of any website that has historical data on AFL lines.

I did do some tracking of results/trends in 1999 but in all honesty I found nothing significant throughout the season that changed the way I was betting. The one thing it did confirm was the importance of recent form, in particular the last 3 or 4 games.

This is generally why I am cautious early in the year but by about Round 4 or 5 you can start betting with more confidence. I think the results in the past 2 weeks have supported that theory.

I will have a good look at Round 6 of the AFL tomorrow and post my thoughts. Fingers crossed the good run can continue.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Originally posted by Anders:
Thanx guys, will hunt around a bit more and see what I can come up with.
AV - yep, might be close to +7.5 or so with Collingwood - which makes me favour the Blues at this stage. Waiting keenly for lines later today...

Often sportodds will be first with the lines, so you can check there, generally. Centrebet will have moneylines up very early as well, and that basically will tell you as well.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Whale, sometimes AFL lines out enough for middle shots, but not as often these days with that internet thing and a bit more sophistication, not like it used to be - usually more from line movement then, barring the odd international slowness.

Anders, website is a lot of work/expense, too. Whether you want to educate the bookmakers is another question

 

[Anders]

Thanx again everyone and welcome in Whale.
Have to reiterate that am I still a rank amateur in AFL. I set my own lines early (before bookies even release MLs) like I do for the Super 12 and NRL this weekend and they were well wide of the mark, whereas the Super 12 lines I set were incredibly accurate - three games exactly the same, one a pt off and the other two points astray.

 

[gloveski]

Try www.totetas.com.au they usually have the lines up before centrebet and more often than not they are the same as centrebet.

 

[gloveski]

Ah yeah welcome whale look forward to reading your opinions each week as you may have seen there is some very wise punters that submit their thoughts each week.The more wise heads we get the easier it should get in theory.I personally am having a ball and would like to thank everyone for their input.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Tabcorp will have AFL lines up reasonably early, that is true, but have not usually been first in the past - last year Sportodds had lines up a week in advance in some cases, guess that was not a good idea, or don't feel like it now - things are a bit slower in general it seems this season.