This game has been so hyped, I seriously doubt that ND takes it for granted. They are an underdog for crying out loud. Maybe players dont know what the line is.

This seems to be one of the biggest errors cappers make, figuring a team will be flat or a team will be sky high. I wish emotion was that easy to figure, but when I look back at picks that were sorely lacking, there always tends to be a "they are keyed up for this game" or "they will overlook this one".
Now of course, focusing on NDs horrible offense could be a solid reason for taking the Force.