Craven over Waltrip in qualifying...

[TheShrimp]

Ricky Craven +120 over Waltrip in qualifying.

Last year at the MBNA Ricky was 6th in qualifying while Waltrip was 17th. AT the Napa in October, Craven was 16th while MW was 15th.

Ricky was worse at Daytona in qualifying but let's forget that restrictor race for now. At the Rock, he was 6th vs. 22nd for Waltrip and Craven had a provisional start at Vegas.

At better than even money, give me Craven over Waltrip.

As Howdy mentioned, Chevys might be off here. When I was touting Chevy results in the other thread, I had forgotten that Daytona was restrictor plate and really should have looked at The Rock with the high banks for a more accurate comparison.

Not too many chances for better than even money in qualifying match-ups, so I'll bite on this one.

Still like Bobby Labonte at 10-1 for winning this thing.

 

[howdy]

Shrimp,
The Chevys should have an advantage during qualifying!
The added downforce they have will come into play when they are the only car on the track and running the low groove trying to get a fast lap time (all taped up).
What I said was that the advantage will should not translate into a race time advantage.


However I do agree with you on your play
Craven is one of the best qualifiers in the series.
I do not look for MW to do as well coming off a great run in Vegas.

Where are you getting these plays? My book does not offer anything except race matchups and winner odds.


Good Luck!

 

[Grama]

even though craven is a homer pick for you, i like it. don't think waltrip does anything this weekend, starting friday.

b. labonte - getting a little excited about him this weekend. could see him win.

 

[TheShrimp]

Yeah, I know Craven is a homer pick, but I think it enables me to kind of look into a more obscure driver, follow his pits, check his qualifyings, that kind of thing...he is the main man riding a Pontiac this year.

SIA (sportsinteraction) has the qualiyfing matchups. What they don't have (or at least I haven't noticed yet) is head to head matchups. Maybe they post them after qualifying though, on the weekends, when I'm not online as much.

I think I get ya about the downforces. I hadn't considered that other aspect of it. So, give me a little NASCAR 101 here if you have a sec...

Basically how I figure it is long straights hurt cars with big downforce, and steep banks don't help the same cars as much.

So, you'd expect a big downforce doesn't help at Daytona, but the Chevy's did well there, BUT its a restrictor plate race, so it wasn't a big factor.

Now, at the Rock, the short straights wouldn't hurt a car with a lot of down force, but the steep banks (22/25 deg.) don't help it. The Chevy's didn't do so well here.

Vegas has longer straights, but less steep banks (12 deg.) , so the downforces would help with cornering.

What I gather from this, is that the downforces help more with cornering than they hurt on the straightaways. Would I be correct to say that?

So, with the steep banks and 1.5 miles at AMS, the DF's are more of a hindrance than a help, EXCEPT in qualifying when they really have to hammer into the turns and take a low groove. Trying to stay in that low groove in similar to just trying to stay in any groove on a track like Vegas.

In actual racing when they're in various grooves, and taking the corners more conservatively, they DF's aren't going to help as much.

Thanks for the comments.

TheShrimp

 

[howdy]

Shrimp,
That is not a NASCAR 101 question, it is more like an engineering question as most of NASCAR has become

Downforce causes the front end to be pushed down onto the track more. This means a car can take a turn better with less damage to the tires.
This is a big advantage on a track like the Rock which has one of the most abrasive tack surfaces in the series.
It also helps on tracks with low banked turns ex. vegas, indy and so on.

This causes no adverse effects on the straights BUT it can allow a driver to get back into the gas earlier comming out of a turn which results in higher straight away speeds.

On a track like Daytona, Atlanta and so on with wide sweeping turns most cars will run the high/higher groove which allows them to stay in the gas and loose very little speed in the turns it also saves the tires. This takes away the advantage of getting back on the gas early since most drivers will not be out of the gas very much.

Let's look at the Chevys that did well at Daytona,
3 of them in the top 10 were from DEI and RCR who spent three years working together (along with Petree I think) on developing a great restrictor plate program. They have been dominating these races for a while.
the other two were Jimmy Johnson and Tony Stewart, no explanation needed for them. It was not downforce that helped them but it did not hurt them (ie, qualifying top 4 were chevys).

Good Downforce will never hurt a car it can only help!
It just does not help as much at some tracks.

Keep in mind that a lot of cautions can take away any advantage!
All cars can stay on fresh tires and nobody can get way out in front.

Hope this helps a little.

 

[howdy]

PS,
this may be a stupid question but WHAT is a Homer pick?

 

[TheShrimp]

I posted somewhere that I like Ricky Craven because we're both from Maine (I don't live there any more). That's why he called it a Homer pick.

I follow that about cautions. Guys get real spread out when they're under green for a long time. All the cautions at Vegas let Newman get back into it. Fox had a great slo-mo shot of Newman trying to blow by Junior to get his lap back. Off topic -- I really liked that about Newman in Vegas. Not that he was able to gain the laps back, but that he had the determination to. If you were listening, DW said he thought Newman drives harder into corners than anyone he's ever seen including Cale Yarborough. I didn't watch Yarborough race, but I got the point. I like this Newman cat. Great guts in the last 2 after that spill at Daytona.

I got this from Nascar.com. That's why I mentioned that about the disadvantage of downforce. . .
The air pressure traveling over the surfaces of a race vehicle creates "downforce" or weight on that area. In order to increase corner speeds teams strive to create downforce that increases tire grip. The tradeoff for increased corner speeds derived from greater downforce is increased drag that slows straightaway speeds.

What I was trying to get at is that the disadvantage from the straights doesn't quite offset the advantage on the corners.

To be silly, one could imagine a track with 5 miles of straight away and 40 degree turns. That would, supposedly, kill a car with a lot of downforce.

However, a track that was a completely flat circle would tremendously benefit a car with a lot of DF. All tracks are somewhere in between.

Trying to gauge how the varying DF's are an advantage at one track or another is part of the game, I guess.

Thanks

 

[howdy]

Shrimp,
NASCARS explanation is ok for the average viewer who knows nothing about the aero packages. It helps them have a working understanding when they hear it mentioned on TV.

Now one thing I did not mention is that downforce also pushes the nose of the car down to the track (can be seen really well during qualifying). This stops the front end of the car from being lifted off the track thus better traction into the corners and stops the air from getting under the car which would slow it down.

Downforce is not to be mistaken for drag which would cause the slowdown you described. In fact a car with good downforce has less drag since most of the air is being pushed up and over the car (or around) so they were incorrect about that point. This is also why teams tape up their grill during qualifying. It lessens the drag and pushes the air over the car.
Teams with good downforce can also run with less tape (during the race) keeping their engines cooler which means running faster for longer periods with less engine problems.


A couple tracks that will give advantage to a car with good downforce are Bristol and Martinsville (martinsville even more).
You will hear DW go on about it during those races.



If DW says it you can usually take it to the bank and he is correct about Newman but keep in mind the cars of today handle far better than the cars that Yarborough got to race. I would love to see Yarborough drive one of these cars. But I have to admit that Newman is one of the most exciting drivers to watch. I would never bet against him cause you cant ever count him out (unless he is out of course).

Have a good one.

 

[Grama]

Early leans for qualifying matchups.

stewart over martin
busch over johnson
mayfield over andretti
junior over jarrett
r. gordon over rudd
skinner over blaney
petty over schrader
kenseth over sadler
b. labonte over r. wallace

what does everyone think?

really like kenseth and skinner being dogs.

 

[Myron]

Craven +135 over Waltrip at Olympic

Also at Pinnacle got to grab some of Kurt Busch at 21-1 and possibly Tony Stewart at 28-1 for the pole position.

 

[Grama]

Already placed one for Sunday.
B. Labonte to win race 1 unit 10-1

Qualifying matchups
Stewart -145 over martin 1 unit
Busch -135 over johnson 1 unit
Mayfield -125 over andretti 1 unit
Junior -150 over jarrett 1 unit
Skinner +120 over blaney 1 unit
Craven +135 over waltrip 1 unit
Kenseth +100 over sadler 1 unit

B. Labonte is up to -165. If it keeps climbing may put .5 unit on rusty. I know Stewart and Junior are expensive but think martin won't do anything all weekend. Junior real be very fast, but this pick is basically my favorite driver pick. Smart money will be on jarrett at +120, very good value.
Like the value with craven, kenseth, and skinner. Think Kenseth will be good.

Paying attention today to see who has it this weekend. Live in south georgia and it's raining here. It may be moving up there. Let's hope not.

Good Luck :weed:

 

[howdy]

Grama,
The Skinner and Petty plays would scare me!
All others look to be very solid
Personally I think the two best would be the Junior and R Gordon.


Hell must have frozen over! It is NASCAR weekend in Atlanta and the weather is beautiful today!

 

[howdy]

Junior will be qualifying 41st! This is very good for Junior!!!

Craven is qualifying 1st! This is very bad for Craven!!!


Good Luck Today!

 

[TheShrimp]

Yup. I saw the qualifying order. I'm on Craven and not on Junior. Not good for moi.

Gone for the weekend. GL on all your bets guys.

Thanks for all the NASCAR talk this week.

Take 'er easy.

 

[Grama]

Newman won the pole. Two drivers hit 191 mph and both were Dodges. Biggest surprise, Junior 183 mph,last place.

Qualifying Record
3-4 -1.5 units

Bet Newman for the race already at 12-1. 0.5 unit

Happy Hour tomorrow at 11 am