5 points Australia to win 3-1 @ 6/1
3 points Australia to win 4-1 @ 9/1
In the last 8 ashes series Australia have won 25 tests, England 9 and 6 have been drawn and I expect Australia to win the series quite easily but England can be expected to win at least one test. Only once since 1991 have England failed to win a test and on 5 occasions out of the eight they won exactly one test in the series, twice winning two tests.
Despite the usual upbeat comments concerning England teams (though not as badly misplaced as that surrounding our very average international football team) this squad is not substantially different from previous teams visiting Australia and the afterglow of the home series win to regain the ashes has been tampered by a winter series loss in Pakistan when England should have won the first test but batted poorly in the fourth innings when chasing a relatively low score to win and a drawn series in India when England were always behind the 8-ball for most of the series. Back home this past summer a drawn home test series against Sri Lanka was followed who "tea mens" annihilation of England's one day team 5-0. This was followed by a sereis win over Pakistan that finished in very controversial circumstances.
Australia have always admired a certain type of player - one with massive confidence who tears into the opposition and clearly enjoys the challenge. This person has been picked out by Australian's to recieve special treatment. In the past it's been the likes of Ian Botham and on this occasion both Freddie Flintoff and Kevin Pietersen fit the bill.
Monty Panesar is a decent spin bowler but as to how good he is I think just two words would put it in perspective - Shane Warne.
Injuries have hit the England team hard and Michael Vaughan misses the tour whilst Marcus Trescothick is in a race to be mentaally match fit for the series. Add to that, Flintoff is not yet fit to bowl and is just as likely to break down again with ankle problems and the loss of Simon Jones over the last eighteen months has been a huge loss to the shape of Englands pace attack.
The bowling department is not as strong as it was and the batting is still adverse to major collapse's. The loss of Vaughans tactical awareness has been missed, although Flintoff didn't look out of place when captaining the side in India.
The entire five test series is packed into just 45 days due to having fit between the ICC Champions Trophy and Cricket World Cup and to incorporate the 16 match triangular VB one day series which includes New Zealand.
As a result there are just 4 days between the end of the first test in Brisbane and the 2nd test in Adelaide, while ther are only 3 days between the 4th test in Melbourne and final test in Sydney. Not many spare days for injured bodies to heal.
England had their moment of glory in their own back-yard last summer and will have to wait until the summer of 2008 to rekindle some of those barmy days of 2005 to win back the ashes since Australia will no longer have the two nemisis that have been a thorn in Englands side - McGrath and Warne.
3 points Australia to win 4-1 @ 9/1
In the last 8 ashes series Australia have won 25 tests, England 9 and 6 have been drawn and I expect Australia to win the series quite easily but England can be expected to win at least one test. Only once since 1991 have England failed to win a test and on 5 occasions out of the eight they won exactly one test in the series, twice winning two tests.
Despite the usual upbeat comments concerning England teams (though not as badly misplaced as that surrounding our very average international football team) this squad is not substantially different from previous teams visiting Australia and the afterglow of the home series win to regain the ashes has been tampered by a winter series loss in Pakistan when England should have won the first test but batted poorly in the fourth innings when chasing a relatively low score to win and a drawn series in India when England were always behind the 8-ball for most of the series. Back home this past summer a drawn home test series against Sri Lanka was followed who "tea mens" annihilation of England's one day team 5-0. This was followed by a sereis win over Pakistan that finished in very controversial circumstances.
Australia have always admired a certain type of player - one with massive confidence who tears into the opposition and clearly enjoys the challenge. This person has been picked out by Australian's to recieve special treatment. In the past it's been the likes of Ian Botham and on this occasion both Freddie Flintoff and Kevin Pietersen fit the bill.
Monty Panesar is a decent spin bowler but as to how good he is I think just two words would put it in perspective - Shane Warne.
Injuries have hit the England team hard and Michael Vaughan misses the tour whilst Marcus Trescothick is in a race to be mentaally match fit for the series. Add to that, Flintoff is not yet fit to bowl and is just as likely to break down again with ankle problems and the loss of Simon Jones over the last eighteen months has been a huge loss to the shape of Englands pace attack.
The bowling department is not as strong as it was and the batting is still adverse to major collapse's. The loss of Vaughans tactical awareness has been missed, although Flintoff didn't look out of place when captaining the side in India.
The entire five test series is packed into just 45 days due to having fit between the ICC Champions Trophy and Cricket World Cup and to incorporate the 16 match triangular VB one day series which includes New Zealand.
As a result there are just 4 days between the end of the first test in Brisbane and the 2nd test in Adelaide, while ther are only 3 days between the 4th test in Melbourne and final test in Sydney. Not many spare days for injured bodies to heal.
England had their moment of glory in their own back-yard last summer and will have to wait until the summer of 2008 to rekindle some of those barmy days of 2005 to win back the ashes since Australia will no longer have the two nemisis that have been a thorn in Englands side - McGrath and Warne.
