MONTREAL EXPOS +125 - I will go for the VALUE play here, as this looks like a generous line in a game that I rate a toss up. Day has been hit hard in his last 2 starts, but that followed a string of 5 consecutive Quality Starts. He is still 7-6 with a good 3.98 ERA on the year, and the fact that his pitch counts were low in his last 2 efforts makes a bounce-back effort much more likely. The most impressive thing about Day is his ability to induce ground balls, and he has an outstanding GB/FB ratio of 2.76 on the year. Sure, Zambrano has been lights out lately, with 6 consecutive starts allowing 2 earned runs or less. However, he struggled in his only start vs. Montreal, allowing 5 earned runs on 7 hits in 4.2 innings, and he is facing a formidable opposing pitcher this evening. It is interesting that as well as Zambrano has pitched, the Cubs as a team are only 14-14 in all of his starts, which also makes him vulnerable as a road favorite.
