Cubs/Reds

[Valuist]

Seeing some 13.5s and 14s out there. I have several conflicting trends here.

Fact: At Wrigley, totals of 12 and higher go OVER. The public sees the big number and wants to go under, but the fact is they rarely make them high enough when the wind is blowing out. I had numbers from 1997 on and its about 60% over.

Fact: HP ump Paul Nauert has shown a strong UNDER tendency. 22 overs 36 unders since 1998. Nauert must've been one of the umps fired after 1999 because he has no data for 2000 and 2001 so most of his data is based on 1998-99.

Hypothesis: Day game after night game favors the under and probably the home team. I don't have any numbers on this.

Hypothesis: Both Estes and Graves are more groundballers than flyballers by about a 2-1 margin so the wind may not be as big a factor as usual.

Bullpens-the Cubs have improved significantly so far this season while the Reds may have a few relievers who need today off (Sullivan and Riedling).

Fact: These 2 pitchers hooked up on April 4 in Cincinnati under much more pitcher-friendly weather conditions and the result was a 10-9 game.

Lean: OVER

 

[Halftime Bettor]

Hey Vaulist,

Pinnacle opened this total at 8 yesterday, then took it off the board and opened it back up at 10.. Today they opened it at 11, took it off, then posted 13.5.
Definately looks like over or pass.

Question:
Where is the bet place to see todays starting umps??

Also, what source do you use to get the umpires' stats on strike % or totals results??

 

[Valuist]

The 1st base ump from the previous game of the serious moves behind the plate. The HP ump then moves to 3rd, and so on. Covers has umpire data and I believe Feist's site has it as well. In the case of Nauert, I think its a bit deceptive because he was out of the game for 2000, 2001 and part of 2002.

 

[TX_capper]

www.covers.com is a great place for stats

 

[ndnfan]

I keep a lot of charts on situations especially if the performance was really good or really bad by the pitchers and thought I'd add a couple FYI's in this game:


I wouldn't really consider that first game on April 4 as having more pitcher friendly weather conditions. It was being played at Cincy which is turning out to be a very good hitters park with Runge as the Ump. This ball park ranks right up there in Home runs if not leading all stadiums in this category. In that game, the wind was also blowing out to left at 24 MPH, so you can't go too much by that game.

Also, in that game, Estes was only 5 to 5 groundballs/flyballs and Graves was just 6 to 5 groundballs to flyballs, so neither was on their game in that one. Estes seems to be way off and I could see him making more mistakes rather than Graves who had bad numbers in that game yet pretty good Career numbers vs Cubs....usually won't happen twice in a row.

Graves started a game back on 9-15-02 with Nauert as the Home Ump and pitched a gem...not allowing a run and only 3 hits in 5 innings...cover.com will look like he did not match up well because it just shows the final score which makes it look like Graves got rocked.

Good luck

-ndnfan

 

[Valuist]

Good point about the earlier matchup but I don't think Graves has the foundation to last much more than 5 innings, and I suspect there's a few tired arms in the Reds pen. As for the earlier matchup, it was much, much colder which definitely favors the pitchers although the wind blowing out may have negated that. The Reds park looks like a hitters park but it might be early to draw too strong conclusions on it. I didn't think the dimensions were that small there.

 

[ndnfan]

Don't think it's too early with saying that the "Great American Ballpark" is a hitters ballpark. The players are launching these balls during the game, and have talked about how everything just carries well there....that WAS even in the cold weather. Even heard they were launching them out of the ballpark in B.P. Dimensions are one thing, but wind tunnels are another.

Do agree with you however, in a game like today, the bullpen could play a role....but will it be too late by then?? Should be interesting nonetheless.

Good luck today Valuist

 

[Valuist]

Just saw on another message board that Alou, Grudzelanek and Damian Miller are all not in the starting lineup today. They've been replaced by O'Leary (batting 4th), Bako and Martinez.