Dawg's Week 1 CFB Wagers:

[SwanDawg]

I most time make my CFB wagers fairly early in the week to try and get the better number on most of my games.

I'll be back in the thread from time to time with some sort of reasoning as to why I like a side. I will be on the Monday Night game on Labor Day as I wanna see how far the line will move.

Best of Fortune to everyone this season, and I'm happy to be a poster here at MJ's, and hopefully I can start the CFB season off right.

1* Texas A&M +10.5

1* Boise State +10

1* Colorado State +3

1* Penn State +2

1* Michigan -34.5

1* Georgia Southern +22.5

1* Alabama -26

1* Clemson +7.5

1* Oklahoma -37.5

1* Florida -34.5

1* Mississippi State -30.5

1* Wisconsin +4.5

1* Utah State +6.5

Concerning the two games on Thursday:

Both South Carolina & Texas A&M have lost a lot from Early NFL entry and graduation. Both teams have recruited very well for a few years now. I respect both teams, and I expect Texas A&M to be much - much better on defense this year. South Carolina's Dylan Thompson while has some reps as starter never has shown that leadership quality that Conner Shaw did. I keep seeing that Missouri game when they pulled Dylan and Shaw brought them back at Missouri for the win. It's a new season I know and A&M while they lost super talent in key area's they still return 14 starters, and as I said they've recruited real well to this point. So I'll grab the points. For SC backers in the SEC play the last 3 season home favs of 10 to 13.5 points at home in conference games are 16-9-1 ATS and 21-5 SU.

Lot's of high expectations at Ole Miss this year, and all of it's warranted. However I think Boise is ready to bounce back this year even with a new head coach. They're loaded with veterans, and have a solid shot at winning the Mountain West this year. SEC teams are 12-2 the L/3Y vs Non conference teams when favored 10 to 13.5 points, and 14-0 SU. From 2008 until 2011 though that number is 3-7 ATS. Boise Head man is familiar with SEC teams as he was an assistant at Georgia from 06-10', and brings in OC who was an assistant at Stanford sometime. Both guys QB'd here and understand the Boise way. Ole Miss is 5-11 ATS as a favorite of 10 to 13.5 points, and Boise is 6-3-1 ATS as dogs of 10 to 13.5 points.

Dawg

 

[SwanDawg]

1* Colorado State +3


Dawg

So far the early bets have gotten me a positive EV on 5 games and minus EV on 1 game.

The Rams have to replace four O-Linemen and stud RB Bibbs, and lost this contest by 14 last year to what should be an improved Colorado team. However CST does return 14 starters including the QB Grayson who broke some records at that position last year. Which is good against a Buffs defense that allowed 7.4 yards/pass attempt. The Rams are 23-11-1 as dogs of 3 to 6 points, and Colorado is 10-14 ATS in this series.

Dawg

 

[SwanDawg]

I most time make my CFB wagers fairly early in the week to try and get the better number on most of my games.

I'll be back in the thread from time to time with some sort of reasoning as to why I like a side. I will be on the Monday Night game on Labor Day as I wanna see how far the line will move.

Best of Fortune to everyone this season, and I'm happy to be a poster here at MJ's, and hopefully I can start the CFB season off right.



1* Penn State +2

1* Michigan -34.5

1* Georgia Southern +22.5

Dawg

Really have to like what James Franklin brings to Penn State here, and he is already pulling in some solid recruits. He brought basically his whole coaching staff up with him, and he already has one of the best young QB's in the nation to work with in year one. These guys will fight in every game for this coach. UCF loses their stud quarterback, but don't hang Coach O'Leary's team out to dry just yet, because they still have a very solid defense with nine starters back and will contend for the AAC crown once again this year. Just enjoy James Franklin's work, and love Christian Hackenburg at QB who only got better as the season went on LY and should continue that trend starting with week one here.

Can't believe Appalachian State is giving Michigan another shot in the big hose. You can guarantee Brady Hoke will use this as a statement game and take full advantage of a very WEAK Mountaineer defense. Michigan has been 30-point plus favs four times since 2008 and went 3-1 ATS in that situation.

Georgia Southern has a very rich tradition in football winning several national titles at the FCS level, and while they're taking a step up in competition with a new head coach I feel they'll compete just fine. Starting with game here verses NCST who will be starting under a new headman as well. Ga. Southern did get a win in the Swamp LY vs Florida becoming the first FCS team since 1992 to upset an SEC squad. Look for Fritz who cam from Sam Houston St to air the ball out a lot, and they keep their defensive coordinator who has put together some very solid squads over the last couple of years. Including a 2012 campaign that held teams to 209/yds per game. Doing this verses Georgia and three playoff games. When your getting three plus TD's a good defensive team is a plus.

Dawg

 

[#cruncher]

Good Luck this year SwanDawg; I enjoyed your write ups :toast:

 

[SwanDawg]

Good Luck this year SwanDawg; I enjoyed your write ups :toast:

Thanks Cruncher. Just trying to add some substance behind the selection since I'm a newbie and all.

Dawg

 

[SwanDawg]

1* Alabama -26

1* Clemson +7.5

1* Oklahoma -37.5


Dawg

Okay on to Alabama here, and who will be the QB for the Tide? Well does it really freaking matter is what I say? Saban does what Saban will do and this is establish a solid offensive line and set up the strong running game with all those stud RB's they have back there. Cocker will probably get the majority of the snaps, but there will be some time split as Saban just like he done with McCarron and Phillip Simms he'll likely let both of them get some snaps the first few weeks, and then go with the better man. In this case that "should" be Jake Cocker according to Jimbo Fisher who said he give Winston a run for the starting spot last year. West Virginia is switching back to the 3-5-3 which gives up a ton of yards between the 20's but the intent of holding teams to FG's while the Neer offense scores TD's. On that Note WVA HC Dana Holgerson is supposedly up against with the AD there is Morgantown, but I think he has things going in the right direction by looking at how he has recruited. This game right here however pound for pound they're just over-matched. Yes it's a heavy number considering we don;t know who is actually going to be the QB, but again Saban should do what Saban does best, and this is run the opposition into the ground physically. Bama is 6-3 ATS as favorites of 24 to 26.5 points, and since 2008 The Tide are 11-2 ATS vs Non-Conference when favored 29 or less points winning by 29 PPG.

Clemson lost a lot on offense (no shit right?) well they still have some playmakers and have recruited real well over the last few seasons so they're kind of a reload team rather than a rebuilding one. Yes they're unproven, and that is a concern obviously. Georgia while having to replace Murray has a lot of talent in place to do some damage in the SEC. However for this one contest I get a feeling and my numbers agree that Clemson has something for them between the hedges there in Athens. I'm hearing Clemson has tightened up that defense, and we'll see right off the rip here in week one. Clemson has been a solid dog over the years going 33-23-1 as dogs, and 6-3 when getting 7 to 9.5 points.

Oklahoma is loaded and I mean loaded this year, and Louisiana Tech has for some reason game Skip Holtz a second year to screw up even more. Since 2002 Stoops is 5-3 ATS at home vs Non Conference teams when favored 30 or more points. La Tech is 1-3 ATS during that time as 30+ road dogs vs Non-Conference plays, and 8-17 ATS as NC road dogs overall.

Dawg

 

[SwanDawg]

In regards to line movement (Expected Value) I'm 7-1-5 in my favor.

That's a good trend to have for long term purposes. Hopefully that trend continues.

Dawg

 

[SwanDawg]

Concerning the two games on Thursday:

Both South Carolina & Texas A&M have lost a lot from Early NFL entry and graduation. Both teams have recruited very well for a few years now. I respect both teams, and I expect Texas A&M to be much - much better on defense this year. South Carolina's Dylan Thompson while has some reps as starter never has shown that leadership quality that Conner Shaw did. I keep seeing that Missouri game when they pulled Dylan and Shaw brought them back at Missouri for the win. It's a new season I know and A&M while they lost super talent in key area's they still return 14 starters, and as I said they've recruited real well to this point. So I'll grab the points. For SC backers in the SEC play the last 3 season home favs of 10 to 13.5 points at home in conference games are 16-9-1 ATS and 21-5 SU.


Dawg

Just one game but can you believe they gave me 10.5 points and Texas A&M!!!!

 

[SwanDawg]

1* Florida -34.5

1* Mississippi State -30.5

1* Wisconsin +4.5

Dawg

Realized tonight that I still have a handful of write ups still to do while watching Colorado State - Colorado.

Florida is looking to rebound off last years 4 win season, and with a healthy Jeff Driskel I feel like they will. In the last two years the Vandals of Idaho have played 5 teams from the 5 Power conferences on the road losing by an average score of 62-8. Idaho does return 17 starters and a good amount of JUCO's, but I look for them to wear down late in the heat as Gator OC Kurt Roper gets them going in the right direction.

Southern MIss is returning 16 starters in Jeff Monkens 2nd year as head man there. They've actually won 10 of the last 14 in this series, but the Golden Eagles have taken a serious nose dive since Larry Fedora left for Chapel Hill. In other words they've been a real dumpster fire, and must start the season facing a Bulldog team that returns stud QB Dak Prescott and nine of their top 11 tacklers from last years defense. The Bulldogs have historically not been a good home favorite, but I've laid the big number here. S. Miss has lost by 48 PPG as dogs of 27 or more points.

LSU will unveil Purple Jesus 2 when RB Leonard Fournette. However I'm questioning how the team will gel. I mean after all they lose they're 3,000-yd passer, a 1,000-yd rusher and two 1,000-yd receivers and TY all 4 depart. Which was the first team ever in SEC history to have 4 players with those marks in a season. Wisconsin has one of if not the best offensive line in the country, but they did lose a lot on defense. The key here is Badger RB Melvin Gordon. If he has a huge game in all likelihood it means that O-line has done it's job and Wisconsin has controlled the clock. This will mark the 4th time in the L5Y the Tigers will open w/a neutral setting. They are 3-0 w/an avg win by 10 ppg playing Top 20 teams in all three. However my number say the value with Wisconsin here.

Dawg

 

[LUNCH PAIL]

GL THIS SEASON AND WELCOME TO MJs. NOTICED YOU WERE IN VA AND LIKED NASCAR...WHERE EXACTLY IN VA? IM FROM MARTINSVILLE....I REALLY MISS OLD NASCAR

 

[SwanDawg]

GL THIS SEASON AND WELCOME TO MJs. NOTICED YOU WERE IN VA AND LIKED NASCAR...WHERE EXACTLY IN VA? IM FROM MARTINSVILLE....I REALLY MISS OLD NASCAR

Thanks LP, and we're basically neighbors I'm about 30 minutes or so from the track (Franklin Co.)

Miss old NASCAR as well, but can't see me ever not watching the sport.

Thanks for posting and good luck.

Dawg

 

[LUNCH PAIL]

Thanks LP, and we're basically neighbors I'm about 30 minutes or so from the track (Franklin Co.)

Miss old NASCAR as well, but can't see me ever not watching the sport.

Thanks for posting and good luck.

Dawg

NICE....IM ALWAYS TELLING THESE BOYS ABOUT FRANKLIN COs FINEST...IM ABOUT DUE FOR MY YEARLY SHIPMENT OF MT WATER....CANT SEE ME EVER NOT WATCHING EITHER, ITS IN MY BLOOD.

HAVE A GOOD ONE

 

[SwanDawg]

Decent way to start a Saturday Football season. Nice job PNST!!!

Dawg

 

[SwanDawg]

1* Utah State +6.5

Dawg

Off a 7-4 week so far with a backdoor cover with Louisiana Tech keeping me from 8-3, and now on to Sunday in Knoxville.

The Aggies have lost 16 straight road openers but their L/4 losses all came by 7 points or less despite playing 4 Power 5 conf teams. Chucky Keeton does come back from ACL surgery, and if he doesn't play up to his old self this premium will be up shit creek fairly quickly. Butch Jones has started getting the recruits coming back to Tennessee, but they're very inexperienced at the line of scrimmage with just 14 career starts on the OL/DL combined. If Keeton is close to his old self the Aggies wont be afraid to play in front the large crowd. Like I said they have traveled to places like Wisconsin and USC in recent years and have played well so look for this game to go down to the wire.

Dawg