DAYTONA 500 Analysis

[The Big Tease]

Well, the time is about here to kick off the season! This race is not the best however as far as making money goes. Well the reason for that is b/c teamwork is so very important in this race. If you dont have teammates to run the draft with, you will be left out in the cold everytime. This race is going to involve long lines of cars, with very little single car passing. If you get passed, you are gonna be passed by at least 5 cars. You can forget about any kind of FORD car doing anyting at all in this race. The second quarter inch they took off their spoiler has completely ruined their car. It is going to be so loose that the entire car is off balance. I wont be surprised if a FORD is not in the top 8-9. Dodge has now played with its balance with the quarter inch taken off their spolier. For that reason I am not nearly as high on drivers like Sterling Marlin (not to mention his teammate Jimmy Spencer didnt make the race which means he wont have him as a drafting partner) and Ward Burton (whose teammate Hut Strickin didnt make the race as well.) This car will be won by a driver for DEI (Dale Earnhardt Inc) Hendrick Racing, or Joe Gibbs Racing. PERIOD, no ifs ands or buts about it. That narrows the field down to the following drivers {Jeff Gordon, Jerry Nadeau, Dale Earnhardt JR, Michael Waltrip, Tony Stewart, Bobby Labonte---there are other drivers that fall in this criteria, but they are the lower feeders on each respective team, and wont be able to beat out the highers ranks within their own team such as Kenny Wallace, Jimmie Johnson, Terry Labonte. These guys are worth a flyer bet if you can find value in thier odds. Look for these guys to be up front just about all day, switching back and forth by drafting. If Waltrip and JR get out front, you can forget about it. They will block for each other until the cows come home, and Waltrip will let JR win, guaranteed.

One thing to note---do not bet matchups for this race. This race as many fast tracks are--are death traps for multiple car pile ups. In the draft, if someone wrecks, it is likely to be a 10 car wreck that takes out your driver that you have in a matchup. If you must bet matchups, do not bet chalk, you WILL lose, these are going to be complete luck.


So, here are my bets...

Jeff Gordon 10units at 9-2
Dale earnhardt JR 10 units at 4-1
Jerry Nadeau 1 units at 35-1
Michael Waltrip 3 units at 15-1
Tony Stewart 5units at 7-1
Bobby laBonte 3 units at 12-1

you guys looking for longshots, these guys here are guys that probably wont win, but have great longshot value


Jeremy Mayfield
Ken Schrader
Kenny Wallace

Good Luck out there!

 

[fletcher]

that time of the year,nice to be doing work again with you
good luck on sunday we are on a few of the sames lets hit it right from the start like we did last year

 

[The Big Tease]

you are right my friend! it is time for the man to bend over and take his beating!:moon:

 

[djv]

I would add Robby Gordon to the it could happen list. He is a wreck waitng to happen. But he has the best car he has ever had for Nascar. I still think with some of the names mention here you can do some match ups. Just need to be careful. I would play JR, J gordon, Stewart, Waltrip, Harvick, B Labonte against just about anyone. But not against each other. Don't know what books some people will use. So this is a general statment. Find them where you can. One last thought Harvick is the one that I would be a little careful with. The others I would hang it out.
GL to all.