...taking both favs today....
Music City Bowl
Arkansas (-8) and lean to Over....
This game is a rout if Arkansas comes to play. Minnesota was 0-5 straight up and 0-5 ATS against Bowl teams from major conferences this season, losing all of those games by a minimum of 13 points and by an average score of 19-39. Arkansas is a running team that averaged 246 rushing yards at 5.5 yards per rushing play (against teams that allowed just 4.3 yprp) and Minnesota simply cannot stop them from running the football, as the Gophers surrendered 5.2 yprp this season (to teams that averaged 4.8 yprp on offense). Minnesota allowed an average of 390 rushing yards at 6.3 yprp in their final two games of the regular season against good running teams Iowa and Wisconsin and the Gophers allowed an average of 269 rushing yards at 5.8 yprp in their last 6 games this season (against teams that average 4.9 yprp on offense). Minnesota also allowed 6.5 yards per pass play in Big 10 play (against teams that average 6.4 yppp on offense), so they are not good defending the pass either. Arkansas should roll up plenty of yards and points in this game.
Minnesota has some offensive potential, as they averaged 5.1 yprp this season (against teams that allow a combined 4.5 yprp), but the Gophers struggled to run the ball against good defensive teams. Minnesota took advantage of teams that were worse than average defending the run, averaging an impressive 324 rushing yards at 6.1 yprp in those 6 games. However, the Gophers managed a paltry 103 rush yards per game at a pathetic 3.1 yprp against teams that are average or better defending the run (Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin, who combine to allow an average of 3.9 yprp on defense). Arkansas allowed only 3.7 yprp this season (to teams that average 4.4 yprp on offense), so it's doubtful that the Gophers will be able to run well in this game. Minnesota averaged only 5.9 yards per pass play (against teams that allow 6.4 yppp on defense), so they are not good enough throwing the ball to atone for a sub-par running day and Arkansas is good enough against the pass (5.9 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.2 yppp) to keep the Gophers from having much success through the air. Going to lay the wood with the razorbacks in Nashville today....
Monday, December 30
Seattle Bowl
Oregon (-7) and lean to over....
The Ducks match up pretty well in this game against a Wake Forest team that is weak defensively (for a bowl team) and is not likely to take advantage of Oregon's porous pass defense (7.0 yards per pass play against teams that average 6.2 yppp on offense). Wake Forest has a run-oriented offense (71% run plays) that is not particularly good running the ball, averaging a mediocre 4.6 yards per rushing play against teams that combine to allow 4.6 yprp on defense). I don't see that rushing attack having too much success against a Ducks' defense that is designed to defend the run and have done a good job doing so this season (3.7 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.1 yprp). Demon Deacons' quarterback James MacPherson is capable of having good success throwing the ball in this game, as he averaged 7.1 yppp this season (against teams that allow 6.3 yppp), but it's just not in coach Jim Grobe's nature to throw the ball that much.
Oregon's offense struggled down the stretch against good defensive teams, but the Ducks' balanced attack averaged 5.5 yards per play for the season (against teams that allow an average of just 5.1 yppl) and that unit should prosper in this game against a sub-par Wake Forest defense that has surrendered 5.7 yppl to teams that average 5.4 yppl. The Demon Deacons are especially poor defending the pass (7.1 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.2 yppp on offense), so Ducks' quarterback Jason Fife (6.6 yppp against teams that allow 6.1 yppp) should have a big night throwing the football in this game. Oregon will get lead back Onterrio Smith back for this game (he missed some time late in the season) and the Ducks better than average rush attack (4.6 yprp against teams that allow 4.3 yprp) should also prosper against a Wake defensive front that has was pretty good overall against the run (4.5 yprp against teams that average 4.7 yprp), but struggled stopping better than average running teams (5.2 yprp allowed to Northern Illinois, Purdue, Duke, Florida State, Navy, and Maryland). Oregon should be able to move the ball by land and by air and they certainly will be out to prove themselves after scoring an average of just 20 points in their final 3 game against good defensive teams Washington State, Washington and Oregon State. Oregon coach Mike Bellotti is 4-1 ATS in bowl games and playing in nearby Seattle should assure that the Ducks have a large majority of fans in this game. Teams that lost their final 3 games of the season are 10-3 ATS in their bowl games the last 21 years and the 4 favorites that have been in that situation have won by an average margin of 19 points. Going to lay the wood with the ducks in Seattle too....
...good luck fellas.
Music City Bowl
Arkansas (-8) and lean to Over....
This game is a rout if Arkansas comes to play. Minnesota was 0-5 straight up and 0-5 ATS against Bowl teams from major conferences this season, losing all of those games by a minimum of 13 points and by an average score of 19-39. Arkansas is a running team that averaged 246 rushing yards at 5.5 yards per rushing play (against teams that allowed just 4.3 yprp) and Minnesota simply cannot stop them from running the football, as the Gophers surrendered 5.2 yprp this season (to teams that averaged 4.8 yprp on offense). Minnesota allowed an average of 390 rushing yards at 6.3 yprp in their final two games of the regular season against good running teams Iowa and Wisconsin and the Gophers allowed an average of 269 rushing yards at 5.8 yprp in their last 6 games this season (against teams that average 4.9 yprp on offense). Minnesota also allowed 6.5 yards per pass play in Big 10 play (against teams that average 6.4 yppp on offense), so they are not good defending the pass either. Arkansas should roll up plenty of yards and points in this game.
Minnesota has some offensive potential, as they averaged 5.1 yprp this season (against teams that allow a combined 4.5 yprp), but the Gophers struggled to run the ball against good defensive teams. Minnesota took advantage of teams that were worse than average defending the run, averaging an impressive 324 rushing yards at 6.1 yprp in those 6 games. However, the Gophers managed a paltry 103 rush yards per game at a pathetic 3.1 yprp against teams that are average or better defending the run (Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin, who combine to allow an average of 3.9 yprp on defense). Arkansas allowed only 3.7 yprp this season (to teams that average 4.4 yprp on offense), so it's doubtful that the Gophers will be able to run well in this game. Minnesota averaged only 5.9 yards per pass play (against teams that allow 6.4 yppp on defense), so they are not good enough throwing the ball to atone for a sub-par running day and Arkansas is good enough against the pass (5.9 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.2 yppp) to keep the Gophers from having much success through the air. Going to lay the wood with the razorbacks in Nashville today....
Monday, December 30
Seattle Bowl
Oregon (-7) and lean to over....
The Ducks match up pretty well in this game against a Wake Forest team that is weak defensively (for a bowl team) and is not likely to take advantage of Oregon's porous pass defense (7.0 yards per pass play against teams that average 6.2 yppp on offense). Wake Forest has a run-oriented offense (71% run plays) that is not particularly good running the ball, averaging a mediocre 4.6 yards per rushing play against teams that combine to allow 4.6 yprp on defense). I don't see that rushing attack having too much success against a Ducks' defense that is designed to defend the run and have done a good job doing so this season (3.7 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.1 yprp). Demon Deacons' quarterback James MacPherson is capable of having good success throwing the ball in this game, as he averaged 7.1 yppp this season (against teams that allow 6.3 yppp), but it's just not in coach Jim Grobe's nature to throw the ball that much.
Oregon's offense struggled down the stretch against good defensive teams, but the Ducks' balanced attack averaged 5.5 yards per play for the season (against teams that allow an average of just 5.1 yppl) and that unit should prosper in this game against a sub-par Wake Forest defense that has surrendered 5.7 yppl to teams that average 5.4 yppl. The Demon Deacons are especially poor defending the pass (7.1 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.2 yppp on offense), so Ducks' quarterback Jason Fife (6.6 yppp against teams that allow 6.1 yppp) should have a big night throwing the football in this game. Oregon will get lead back Onterrio Smith back for this game (he missed some time late in the season) and the Ducks better than average rush attack (4.6 yprp against teams that allow 4.3 yprp) should also prosper against a Wake defensive front that has was pretty good overall against the run (4.5 yprp against teams that average 4.7 yprp), but struggled stopping better than average running teams (5.2 yprp allowed to Northern Illinois, Purdue, Duke, Florida State, Navy, and Maryland). Oregon should be able to move the ball by land and by air and they certainly will be out to prove themselves after scoring an average of just 20 points in their final 3 game against good defensive teams Washington State, Washington and Oregon State. Oregon coach Mike Bellotti is 4-1 ATS in bowl games and playing in nearby Seattle should assure that the Ducks have a large majority of fans in this game. Teams that lost their final 3 games of the season are 10-3 ATS in their bowl games the last 21 years and the 4 favorites that have been in that situation have won by an average margin of 19 points. Going to lay the wood with the ducks in Seattle too....
...good luck fellas.
