December 16 Bowl Games

[Smitty]

i haven't posted any plays this year, but i can't pass up bowl season. although, admittedly, i've had a pretty shitty year on college football.

New Orleans Bowl

troy (-6.5) 2 units. this old sun belt matchup leads off our bowl season. hands down, the difference here is the defenses. troy is 11th in the country, allowing 17.5 points/game. nt is 106th, allowing 33.8/game.

with jordan chunn, troy should be able to take advantage of a north texas defense that gives up 208 yards/game on the ground, which is 107th in the country. in the conf. usa championship game, they allowed 281 yards on 42 carries.

a big factor in these games tends to be turnovers. troy is +4 on the season. most notably, they have picked off 15 passes. and the ball will be in the air a lot. mason fine is a lot of fun to watch, but he does have 13 INTs on the season. in fact, against bowl teams, he has thrown 16 TDs and 10 INTs (12 & 3 against everyone else). north texas is 113th in the country in turnover margin, at -8 for the year.

also, i'm assuming jeffery wilson is out for the game. last i saw, he was listed as doubtful. that puts even more pressure on mason fine.

it may not be pretty, but i like the trojans to slow down nt's potent offense and grind out a convincing win.

Happy Bowl Season, everyone!

 

[ejthree]

i haven't posted any plays this year, but i can't pass up bowl season. although, admittedly, i've had a pretty shitty year on college football.

New Orleans Bowl

troy (-6.5) 2 units. this old sun belt matchup leads off our bowl season. hands down, the difference here is the defenses. troy is 11th in the country, allowing 17.5 points/game. nt is 106th, allowing 33.8/game.

with jordan chunn, troy should be able to take advantage of a north texas defense that gives up 208 yards/game on the ground, which is 107th in the country. in the conf. usa championship game, they allowed 281 yards on 42 carries.

a big factor in these games tends to be turnovers. troy is +4 on the season. most notably, they have picked off 15 passes. and the ball will be in the air a lot. mason fine is a lot of fun to watch, but he does have 13 INTs on the season. in fact, against bowl teams, he has thrown 16 TDs and 10 INTs (12 & 3 against everyone else). north texas is 113th in the country in turnover margin, at -8 for the year.

also, i'm assuming jeffery wilson is out for the game. last i saw, he was listed as doubtful. that puts even more pressure on mason fine.

it may not be pretty, but i like the trojans to slow down nt's potent offense and grind out a convincing win.

Happy Bowl Season, everyone!

Happy Holidays Smitty... Crazy line movement in this game today... As always BOL with your plays...

 

[Smitty]

Cure Bowl

Cure Bowl

georgia st (+7) 2 units
georgia st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.2. two reasons for this play. 1) this is not a very good wku team and 2) motivation - georgia st is looking for their first ever bowl win.

wku underachieved this year. i'm only using one guide, but they had wku picked to win the c-usa east. they finished 4th. georgia st, on the other hand, overachieved. they were picked 9th in the sunbelt, and they finished 4th. i think they will be a lot more motivated for this game.

both teams were poor against bowl teams. wku was 1-4 and ga st was 0-3. but here's something that really stood out to me. in bowl games, i like to see teams that were good away from home. well, wku is 2-4 on the road this year. georgia st... are you ready for this? they are 5-1 on the road. with the only loss at penn st. granted, none of those road wins were at alabama, but any time you go 4-0 in conference road games, that's impressive.

on paper, wku should absolutely win this game. georgia st can't run the ball and while conner manning had a solid year throwing the ball, he doesn't strike fear in the hearts of opposing defenses. but in a battle of two mediocre teams, i'll take the motivated dog.

 

[Smitty]

Happy Holidays Smitty... Crazy line movement in this game today... As always BOL with your plays...

thanks, ej! BOL to you as well.

wow, yeah, the line is really dropping on that game. that certainly concerns me. is that your friends moving the line?

 

[Smitty]

Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

oregon (-7) 2 units. this is mostly a gut play. with this line, it feels like they are looking for boise money. think the ducks are happy to have herbert back? after going 1-4 without him, they outscored opponents their last 2 games 117-38. not bad. freeman not playing certainly hurts the rushing attack, but they have some pretty damn good backups.

the ducks should be motivated to be back in a bowl game, after a poor season last year.

 

[ejthree]

thanks, ej! BOL to you as well.

wow, yeah, the line is really dropping on that game. that certainly concerns me. is that your friends moving the line?

No but someone Big ... Concerns me also because I think joe public still sees LSU in this game... Just sayn...

 

[Smitty]

Camellia Bowl

Camellia Bowl

middle tenn (ML) 2 units to win 2.6. another gut play. and, full disclosure, it feels like i'm wrong on every midd tenn st bowl game.

no surprise, the blue raiders missed stockstill when he was out, going 2-4 without him and 4-2 with him (3-1 since he returned from injury). he's been pretty good in his two bowl games, completing 56 of 90 for 7 TDs and 3 INTs. arkansas state's pass defense is 90th in the country, giving up 242 yards/game. and, perhaps more telling, they are allowing 14.4 yards/completion. only 9 teams are worse.

if the red wolves are still feeling a hangover from the loss to troy, stockstill should have a huge game today.

 

[Smitty]

New Mexico Bowl

New Mexico Bowl

marshall (+3.5) 1 unit
marshall (ML) 1 unit to win 1.5. i have come full circle on this game. colorado st sure seems like the better team. but then i noticed they have only beaten one bowl team this year, and that was utah state. colorado st is 95th in the country, giving up 243 passing yards/game. litton should have a big game.

 

[ejthree]

My friends like Ark St -3

 

[Smitty]

dammit. well, thank you for the heads up. the red wolves are definitely the better team.

 

[ejthree]

dammit. well, thank you for the heads up. the red wolves are definitely the better team.

Very nice work on the Troy game..:0008

 

[Smitty]

Very nice work on the Troy game..:0008

thank you, sir. i'm on fire! you know, except for oregon. and maybe marshall. but right now... i'm 2-0!!

i should probably take the rest of the bowl season off.

 

[fla]

thank you, sir. i'm on fire! you know, except for oregon. and maybe marshall. but right now... i'm 2-0!!

i should probably take the rest of the bowl season off.

Good to see you back! Quackers look like they pulled an all nighter at the casino last night.

:shrug:

 

[ejthree]

Smitty i need a loan because you just broke the bank...Love it when a plan comes together...:0074

 

[Smitty]

Good to see you back! Quackers look like they pulled an all nighter at the casino last night.

:shrug:

thanks! i've been around, just not posting. i always make sure to read who you're playing. i definitely feel better when we're in agreement. :toast:

i miss the days when it seemed like byu was always in the las vegas bowl. the mormons are about the only group you can trust to stay focused in vegas. the positive yesterday was - i didn't have to spend very much time watching that game. :facepalm:

 

[Smitty]

Smitty i need a loan because you just broke the bank...Love it when a plan comes together...:0074

hahaha hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. :scared