- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
The marquee game of the college basketball night features Syracuse looking to defeat Pitt for the second time this season. Pitt is currently a small home favorite, and they?re looking to take down the undefeated Orangemen. If past results are any indicator, they have a good chance to come out victorious.
Pittsburgh?s major strength is length. They are top 20 in college basketball in rebounding percentage and they outrebounded Syracuse by 10 in their last meeting, including 16 offensive rebounds. This is not surprising given that they are fourth in the country in offensive rebounding rate. This is a weak spot for this Syracuse team, as they are 203rd in the country in giving up offensive rebounds, allowing opponents to rebound 30.2% of their misses. While still impressively outscoring Syracuse 19-2 in second chance points, Pitt left some points off the board by missing easy baskets off offensive rebounds. In addition to their impressive work on the glass, Pittsburgh is 16th of all DI teams in assists per game, average 3.3 more than Syracuse per outing, while also limiting opponents assists better than the Orange. Pitt also averages 2.3 more free throw attempts per game, showing their aggressiveness in the paint.
All of Pitt's strengths were reflected in their earlier meeting with Syracuse this season, where they outrebounded them, attempted more free throws, and had a better assist ratio. Teams that win these three categories in the box score win the game 95.2% of the time over the last five college basketball seasons and cover the spread 75.7% of the time.
What hurt Pitt in their last matchup was their poor field goal percentage and field goal defense. Like most college teams, Pitt is much better defensively at home, while Syracuse?s defense is not as good on the road. I expect Pittsburgh to improve on the 38.3% they shot from the field in the last meeting and Syracuse?s 51.2% to decrease dramatically since Pitt has been limiting opponents to just 38.5% on the season at home. Despite their poor shooting, they only lost the last game by five points which is remarkable considering that over the last five seasons college teams that shoot over 50% while limiting opponents to less than 40% win the game by an average margin of 20.93 points. This highlights how Pitt dominated every other aspect of the game.
Despite being one of the greatest college coaches ever, Boeheim has struggled against Dixon. Under Dixon, the Panthers are 10-5 against Syracuse, including 5-0 in their last five home meetings, with their lone home loss coming in 2004. At home they have beat Syracuse by an average margin of 8.8 points. In the last seven seasons they are 7-1-1 ATS vs the Orange. Tonight?s game is also a familiar role for Dixon, in that he has led his team to wins against undefeated Syracuse teams in the 2009 and 2010 seasons.
Pittsburgh has struggled ATS this season, covering just 35% of their spreads, and they are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games. They are coming off a close overtime win against a bad Virginia Tech team. With two big games upcoming, they may have had a bit of a look-ahead mentality during the Tech game. They are now on a four game ATS losing streak and they have lost their two biggest home games of the season, to Duke and Virginia. Despite this, they hold a better margin of victory than Syracuse on the season. At home they win by an average of 15.5 points per game, which is 32nd out of 351 DI teams. Their home court is important, as their average margin of victory improves by 6.4 points vs when they play on the road. Under Dixon, the Panthers are 178-24 at home.
Since the 2007 regular season, Syracuse is 5-9 SU as a road dog playing against a team with a worse record. In this same time period, undefeated teams getting deep into the season with at least 16 wins are 0-9 SU and ATS when playing as a road dog. This is a buy low, sell high game.
Pittsburgh Panthers -1.5
Pittsburgh?s major strength is length. They are top 20 in college basketball in rebounding percentage and they outrebounded Syracuse by 10 in their last meeting, including 16 offensive rebounds. This is not surprising given that they are fourth in the country in offensive rebounding rate. This is a weak spot for this Syracuse team, as they are 203rd in the country in giving up offensive rebounds, allowing opponents to rebound 30.2% of their misses. While still impressively outscoring Syracuse 19-2 in second chance points, Pitt left some points off the board by missing easy baskets off offensive rebounds. In addition to their impressive work on the glass, Pittsburgh is 16th of all DI teams in assists per game, average 3.3 more than Syracuse per outing, while also limiting opponents assists better than the Orange. Pitt also averages 2.3 more free throw attempts per game, showing their aggressiveness in the paint.
All of Pitt's strengths were reflected in their earlier meeting with Syracuse this season, where they outrebounded them, attempted more free throws, and had a better assist ratio. Teams that win these three categories in the box score win the game 95.2% of the time over the last five college basketball seasons and cover the spread 75.7% of the time.
What hurt Pitt in their last matchup was their poor field goal percentage and field goal defense. Like most college teams, Pitt is much better defensively at home, while Syracuse?s defense is not as good on the road. I expect Pittsburgh to improve on the 38.3% they shot from the field in the last meeting and Syracuse?s 51.2% to decrease dramatically since Pitt has been limiting opponents to just 38.5% on the season at home. Despite their poor shooting, they only lost the last game by five points which is remarkable considering that over the last five seasons college teams that shoot over 50% while limiting opponents to less than 40% win the game by an average margin of 20.93 points. This highlights how Pitt dominated every other aspect of the game.
Despite being one of the greatest college coaches ever, Boeheim has struggled against Dixon. Under Dixon, the Panthers are 10-5 against Syracuse, including 5-0 in their last five home meetings, with their lone home loss coming in 2004. At home they have beat Syracuse by an average margin of 8.8 points. In the last seven seasons they are 7-1-1 ATS vs the Orange. Tonight?s game is also a familiar role for Dixon, in that he has led his team to wins against undefeated Syracuse teams in the 2009 and 2010 seasons.
Pittsburgh has struggled ATS this season, covering just 35% of their spreads, and they are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games. They are coming off a close overtime win against a bad Virginia Tech team. With two big games upcoming, they may have had a bit of a look-ahead mentality during the Tech game. They are now on a four game ATS losing streak and they have lost their two biggest home games of the season, to Duke and Virginia. Despite this, they hold a better margin of victory than Syracuse on the season. At home they win by an average of 15.5 points per game, which is 32nd out of 351 DI teams. Their home court is important, as their average margin of victory improves by 6.4 points vs when they play on the road. Under Dixon, the Panthers are 178-24 at home.
Since the 2007 regular season, Syracuse is 5-9 SU as a road dog playing against a team with a worse record. In this same time period, undefeated teams getting deep into the season with at least 16 wins are 0-9 SU and ATS when playing as a road dog. This is a buy low, sell high game.
Pittsburgh Panthers -1.5
