Demling?
- Thread starter GoDawgs10
- Start date
1. Tacitus (8-1) - The more I watch the Wood Memorial replay, the more I like the son of Tapit. He had a rough trip but kept his poise and has looked good at Churchill. His only loss was back in October and since then he's won three in a row and keeps improving. Without Omaha Beach in the race, I believe Tacitus has the mental and physical abilities to win the roses.
-2. Improbable (5-1) - Has finished second in both of his races this year, but only lost by a length to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby; he was super sharp in a workout at Churchill last weekend and got the best post position of any of the three Bob Baffert horses. I liked him all winter and still like him, just not as much as Omaha Beach.
-3. Game Winner (9-2) - The 2-year-old champion is a tough and gritty horse; he always seems to be right there and we know he likes Churchill Downs. His post position isn't terrible, but he'll need a good break.
-4. War of Will (15-1) - Trainer Mark Casse says throw out the Louisiana Derby bad races because of a minor injury; if you do that then he would be one of the favorites. I don't like a hiccup on the way to the Derby but he's been one of the most visually impressive horses training into the Derby. I don't love the No. 1 post position, but that just means jockey Tyler Gaffalione will have to get him out of there in a hurry.
-5. Win Win Win (12-1) - Was impressed when he closed on a speed-favoring track at Keeneland at the Blue Grass Stakes; even more impressed with his final workout at Churchill. Will need a clean trip, but if he gets it could hit the board.
-6. Roadster (5-1) - Has slipped a bit in my eyes recently and a lot has to do with the No. 16 post position - 4-for-47 all-time. Mike Smith picked Omaha Beach over Roadster and now he gets a tough post - a lot to overcome.
-7. By My Standards (15-1) - Has been off since the Louisiana Derby but has looked really good training at Churchill. In fact, he's the buzz horse on the backside.
-8. Code of Honor (12-1) - The third-place finisher in the Florida Derby has some late kick and trainer Shug McGaughey doesn't show up unless he has a shot. I wouldn't be shocked if he finishes in the top five.
-9. Maximum Security (6-1) - He won the Florida Derby on an easy pace at the front of the pack; he won't get that pace on Saturday. In fact, not sure he'll have the lead early on with some of the other horses looking to go and the posts they drew.
-10. Vekoma (15-1) - The Blue Grass Stakes winner will be a shorter price than 20-1, but I'll pass. He's small and has awkward action the way he runs.
-11. Spinoff (30-1) - Some buzz about the Todd Pletcher trained horse, but he finished second in the Louisiana Derby with no excuses. He should have won there. Will run from the No. 18 post position and jockey Manny Franco will have to use up a lot of energy with him early in the race.
-12. Tax (20-1) - Won the Withers Stakes and finished second in the Wood Memorial; has the look of a very nice horse in this crop but on this day I have a hard time seeing him coming close - much less winning against this bunch.
-13. Cutting Humor (30-1) - He won the Sunland Park Derby and has looked better than I expected here at Churchill Downs; but just not enough for me to take a strong stand.
-14. Haikal (30-1) - Was a good trip for him in the Wood Memorial and he didn't beat Tacitus there. Is likely to be way back in the early stages of the race and will beat some of the tired horses coming down the stretch. Note: Has a foot abscess that surfaced on Thursday and could scratch.
-15. Country House (30-1) - Trainer Bill Mott got him into the race with an extra race - third in the Arkansas Derby; but he's not a threat to win.
-16. Plus Que Parfait (30-1) - Went from looking terrible in two races in the U.S. to winning the UAE Derby in Dubai; got the connections a lot of money and him a lot of points to get into the field but he won't be close here. The last two winners of the UAE Derby finished last in the Kentucky Derby.
-17. Long Range Toddy (30-1) - Was not good in the Arkansas Derby and some of it might have been the sloppy track, but I just don't think he's a contender. Jockey. Jon Court at 58 is the oldest jockey to ever ride in the Derby.
-18. Bodexpress (30-1) - He's the only maiden in the race and no way he makes the Derby his first win.
-19. Gray Magician (50-1) - Finished second in the UAE Derby to get into the field; but there will be better horses on the also-eligible list.
-20. Master Fencer (50-1) - He's the first Japanese-bred horse to run in the Derby; unfortunately he has no shot in the race.
-2. Improbable (5-1) - Has finished second in both of his races this year, but only lost by a length to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby; he was super sharp in a workout at Churchill last weekend and got the best post position of any of the three Bob Baffert horses. I liked him all winter and still like him, just not as much as Omaha Beach.
-3. Game Winner (9-2) - The 2-year-old champion is a tough and gritty horse; he always seems to be right there and we know he likes Churchill Downs. His post position isn't terrible, but he'll need a good break.
-4. War of Will (15-1) - Trainer Mark Casse says throw out the Louisiana Derby bad races because of a minor injury; if you do that then he would be one of the favorites. I don't like a hiccup on the way to the Derby but he's been one of the most visually impressive horses training into the Derby. I don't love the No. 1 post position, but that just means jockey Tyler Gaffalione will have to get him out of there in a hurry.
-5. Win Win Win (12-1) - Was impressed when he closed on a speed-favoring track at Keeneland at the Blue Grass Stakes; even more impressed with his final workout at Churchill. Will need a clean trip, but if he gets it could hit the board.
-6. Roadster (5-1) - Has slipped a bit in my eyes recently and a lot has to do with the No. 16 post position - 4-for-47 all-time. Mike Smith picked Omaha Beach over Roadster and now he gets a tough post - a lot to overcome.
-7. By My Standards (15-1) - Has been off since the Louisiana Derby but has looked really good training at Churchill. In fact, he's the buzz horse on the backside.
-8. Code of Honor (12-1) - The third-place finisher in the Florida Derby has some late kick and trainer Shug McGaughey doesn't show up unless he has a shot. I wouldn't be shocked if he finishes in the top five.
-9. Maximum Security (6-1) - He won the Florida Derby on an easy pace at the front of the pack; he won't get that pace on Saturday. In fact, not sure he'll have the lead early on with some of the other horses looking to go and the posts they drew.
-10. Vekoma (15-1) - The Blue Grass Stakes winner will be a shorter price than 20-1, but I'll pass. He's small and has awkward action the way he runs.
-11. Spinoff (30-1) - Some buzz about the Todd Pletcher trained horse, but he finished second in the Louisiana Derby with no excuses. He should have won there. Will run from the No. 18 post position and jockey Manny Franco will have to use up a lot of energy with him early in the race.
-12. Tax (20-1) - Won the Withers Stakes and finished second in the Wood Memorial; has the look of a very nice horse in this crop but on this day I have a hard time seeing him coming close - much less winning against this bunch.
-13. Cutting Humor (30-1) - He won the Sunland Park Derby and has looked better than I expected here at Churchill Downs; but just not enough for me to take a strong stand.
-14. Haikal (30-1) - Was a good trip for him in the Wood Memorial and he didn't beat Tacitus there. Is likely to be way back in the early stages of the race and will beat some of the tired horses coming down the stretch. Note: Has a foot abscess that surfaced on Thursday and could scratch.
-15. Country House (30-1) - Trainer Bill Mott got him into the race with an extra race - third in the Arkansas Derby; but he's not a threat to win.
-16. Plus Que Parfait (30-1) - Went from looking terrible in two races in the U.S. to winning the UAE Derby in Dubai; got the connections a lot of money and him a lot of points to get into the field but he won't be close here. The last two winners of the UAE Derby finished last in the Kentucky Derby.
-17. Long Range Toddy (30-1) - Was not good in the Arkansas Derby and some of it might have been the sloppy track, but I just don't think he's a contender. Jockey. Jon Court at 58 is the oldest jockey to ever ride in the Derby.
-18. Bodexpress (30-1) - He's the only maiden in the race and no way he makes the Derby his first win.
-19. Gray Magician (50-1) - Finished second in the UAE Derby to get into the field; but there will be better horses on the also-eligible list.
-20. Master Fencer (50-1) - He's the first Japanese-bred horse to run in the Derby; unfortunately he has no shot in the race.
Bets....Demling
EXOTICS
Here's what I said prior to the scratch: "I picked Omaha Beach but was back and forth in the final week or so between the favorite and Improbable. It wouldn't surprise me at all if either of those two horses or Game Winner or Tacitus was wearing the roses on Saturday night."
So, why change things....I'll pick Tacitus but play the three:
Here's a look at a ticket I believe will not only cover you but has a chance to give you a solid return on your investment.
Let's play a $5 exacta box with the top four in the race. And then take Omaha Beach and play him in a $1 bet over the rest of the horses in the field.
$5 exacta box 5,8,16 ($30)
$1 exacta 8 over ALL ($19)
The trifecta will be a tough on to snare but we'll try two angles.
The first - and likely the wager I will make - its using the top three and then 10 horses.
$0.50 trifecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($24)
The second has Tacitus singled.
$0.50 trifecta 8 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($36)
The superfecta is a minimum of $1 on Derby Day, so you can spend a ton of money trying to hit it. The good thing is it will likely pay a ton....but hopefully it will pay off.
$1 superfecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,5,8,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,8,14,16,17 ($96)
DERBY-OAKS DOUBLE
The Oaks-Derby Double is my favorite wager at Churchill Downs this weekend.
And for good reason.
I have used different combinations to win the wager nine of the past 10 years. It's a wager that takes place in two races on consecutive days - the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill.
It's a wager that more often than not has proven to be a very good play for a return. Since the wager started in 1999, the payout has been under $51 just four times. On the flip side, the payout has been more than $500 on six occasions.
So, let's try and hit a good one.
And remember, if you hit the Oaks winner then you will be able to see the will-pays on Friday night and it won't change.
Here we go:
I was ready to do a $5 bet with Omaha Beach and all in the Oaks, but he's scratched. I'm not as confident in Tacitus or Improbable but let's wheel them both for $2.
$2 Oaks-Derby double ALL (Oaks) with 5,8 (Derby) total ($56)
I still want to make sure I cover myself on the Derby side, so I will use my other top picks up with the top few in the Oaks
$1 Oaks-Derby double 1,3,4,7 (Oaks) with 1,3,14,15,16,17 (Derby) total ($30)
I really like Bellafina in the Oaks, so I will use her on top with all
$1 Oaks-Derby double 4 (Oaks) with ALL (Derby) - total ($20)
And I will use my second pick - Jaywalk - and long shot - Lady Apple - with my other top picks in the Derby
$1 Oaks-Derby double 3,7 (Oaks) with 1,3,5,8,14,15,16,17 (Derby) - total ($16)
The wagers here would total - $122 - which is more than I have ever wager on this bet - but would likely give us a good return.
EXOTICS
Here's what I said prior to the scratch: "I picked Omaha Beach but was back and forth in the final week or so between the favorite and Improbable. It wouldn't surprise me at all if either of those two horses or Game Winner or Tacitus was wearing the roses on Saturday night."
So, why change things....I'll pick Tacitus but play the three:
Here's a look at a ticket I believe will not only cover you but has a chance to give you a solid return on your investment.
Let's play a $5 exacta box with the top four in the race. And then take Omaha Beach and play him in a $1 bet over the rest of the horses in the field.
$5 exacta box 5,8,16 ($30)
$1 exacta 8 over ALL ($19)
The trifecta will be a tough on to snare but we'll try two angles.
The first - and likely the wager I will make - its using the top three and then 10 horses.
$0.50 trifecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($24)
The second has Tacitus singled.
$0.50 trifecta 8 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($36)
The superfecta is a minimum of $1 on Derby Day, so you can spend a ton of money trying to hit it. The good thing is it will likely pay a ton....but hopefully it will pay off.
$1 superfecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,5,8,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,8,14,16,17 ($96)
DERBY-OAKS DOUBLE
The Oaks-Derby Double is my favorite wager at Churchill Downs this weekend.
And for good reason.
I have used different combinations to win the wager nine of the past 10 years. It's a wager that takes place in two races on consecutive days - the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill.
It's a wager that more often than not has proven to be a very good play for a return. Since the wager started in 1999, the payout has been under $51 just four times. On the flip side, the payout has been more than $500 on six occasions.
So, let's try and hit a good one.
And remember, if you hit the Oaks winner then you will be able to see the will-pays on Friday night and it won't change.
Here we go:
I was ready to do a $5 bet with Omaha Beach and all in the Oaks, but he's scratched. I'm not as confident in Tacitus or Improbable but let's wheel them both for $2.
$2 Oaks-Derby double ALL (Oaks) with 5,8 (Derby) total ($56)
I still want to make sure I cover myself on the Derby side, so I will use my other top picks up with the top few in the Oaks
$1 Oaks-Derby double 1,3,4,7 (Oaks) with 1,3,14,15,16,17 (Derby) total ($30)
I really like Bellafina in the Oaks, so I will use her on top with all
$1 Oaks-Derby double 4 (Oaks) with ALL (Derby) - total ($20)
And I will use my second pick - Jaywalk - and long shot - Lady Apple - with my other top picks in the Derby
$1 Oaks-Derby double 3,7 (Oaks) with 1,3,5,8,14,15,16,17 (Derby) - total ($16)
The wagers here would total - $122 - which is more than I have ever wager on this bet - but would likely give us a good return.
