Denver - Pittsburgh - Scouts Inc's take

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Broncos, Steelers have common goals By Scouts, Inc.


Why To Watch
Before the Steelers upset the Colts in the divisional round, a No. 6 had never beaten a No. 1 seed in the playoffs. They did it with excellent game plans on offense and defense, and much like the San Diego Chargers in December, Pittsburgh was more physical than the Colts. Denver played a physical game of its own in a over New England and capitalized on five key turnovers.
Both of these teams take a lot of pride in running the football, and both believe in controlling the clock and playing great defense, especially versus the run. This is not a game for the faint-hearted. It will be physical, there will be some trash talking and both defenses will be creative in their blitz packages. Can the Steelers win three tough games on the road to get to Detroit?


When the Steelers have the ball
Rushing: Although the Steelers came out throwing more than anticipated early versus Indianapolis, they finally settled in to their normal game plan, finishing with 42 rushes and only 24 passes. Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker had 17 carries each, and Pittsburgh threw only five times in the second half.

There is no mystery to what the Steelers want to do: control the clock with the run and pick their spots in the passing game. However, Denver has a very solid run defense and an effective front seven. The Broncos play good gap-control defense up front and have athletic linebackers who can step up and fill. On top of that, SS John Lynch comes into the box and basically plays like a linebacker. That leaves eight defenders to stop Pittsburgh's run game. It will also be difficult for Parker to get outside because Denver's linebackers have outstanding range and are excellent open-field tacklers.

This is a defense that doesn't give up many big plays in the run game and allowed only three 100 yard-rushing days all season. FB Dan Kreider may play a key role. He is one of the most underrated "iso" blockers in the NFL, and if he can get to Denver MLB Al Wilson, it might create some creases in the run game.

Passing: Pittsburgh uncharacteristically came out aggressively against the Colts' Cover 2, throwing 19 times in the first half. Ben Roethlisberger did a great job of attacking the middle of the field with TE Heath Miller and exploiting the Colts' safeties in coverage. Pittsburgh might do the same thing versus Broncos safeties Nick Ferguson and Lynch, who struggle in coverage. The Broncos use them on a variety of blitzes, which could open up the middle of the field.

Denver will play mostly man-to-man schemes and use all-world cover corner Champ Bailey and two rookies, Domonique Foxworth and Darrent Williams, in their nickel package. Roethlisberger will likely target the rookies and safeties The Broncos do not have a great sack attack (last in the NFL in sacks), but their read-and-react defensive front seven makes them less vulnerable versus gadget plays, screen passes and draw plays.

Roethlisberger has become very efficient with this passing game, having now gone 21 quarters without throwing an interception. He throws a lot of short and safe passes, but the Broncos have a very athletic linebacker trio and can get outside and control the short Steelers' passing game. Look for Pittsburgh to throw a little more on first and second downs than usual to create an element of surprise.

When the Broncos have the ball
Rushing: Although the Broncos ran the ball a respectable 32 times versus the Patriots, it wasn't the same dominating running game we are used to seeing from Denver. New England seemed to use its size and physicality up front to overpower the athletic but smaller Denver offensive line. The Broncos are a run-first, pass-second offense and led the AFC in time of possession, so it will be a huge challenge for the Steelers' defense to try to control this game in the trenches.

Pittsburgh will give Denver's offense a lot of pre-snap movement and make it difficult to adjust the run-blocking schemes. However, Denver has a zone-blocking offensive line, and that simplifies the blocking assignments. It basically means that Denver's offensive linemen will hit anything that comes into their area, rather than chasing defenders, which is the case in man-blocking schemes. Pittsburgh plays a two-gap, read-and-react scheme up front, and the defensive line trio of Kimo von Oelhoffen, Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith is very physical at the point of attack and tough to run against.

SS Troy Polamalu is basically another linebacker in the box in run situations, and Denver must figure out a way to block him when he attacks. Because Pittsburgh's defense has the ability to negate the inside power running of Mike Anderson, the Broncos will likely counter with a wider running game and give more carries to the speedy Tatum Bell.

Passing: The Steelers had a magnificent game plan versus the Colts' offense last week as they mixed their blitzes up extremely well and never let Peyton Manning get comfortable. The pass rush started with an excellent inside push from Pittsburgh's two-gap power defensive line of Von Oelhoffen, Hampton and Smith. It collapsed the pocket and forced Manning to slide from side to side, which is not his comfort level. That same pressure game plan will be used in Denver. NT Hampton will be a load for Denver OC Tom Nalen, and an athletic, but undersized, offensive line will have its hands full keeping this defensive front off QB Jake Plummer.

One of Plummer's biggest challenges will be to locate Polamalu before every play. He is the key to identifying what the Steelers are doing defensively. If he is up in the box or blitzing, it leaves FS Chris Hope in the deep middle of the field in a Cover 3 look, which means he can help out only one of the corners on the perimeter -- and that's when Plummer can take some deep outside shots to his wide receivers.

It is also imperative that the Broncos establish the run early to set up play-action. This Steelers defense is aggressive and loves to attack, and it is more susceptible to play fakes than most AFC defenses. The Steelers do not have a good cover secondary and because of it, they will play mostly zone schemes behind their blitz. If Plummer gets pass protection and if his offense picks up the blitz, there are plays to be made.
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
A big reason why Pittsburgh's offense got off to a good start Sunday was its willingness to change its philosophy. Generally, Pittsburgh is a team that likes to use the run to set up the pass. On Sunday, the Steelers passed to open up the run. Denver, like Indianapolis, has two defensive safeties who are much better attacking than playing in coverage.
Pittsburgh had a great game plan Sunday because the guy they involved early in the offense was TE Heath Miller. Miller's ability to stretch the middle of the field paid huge dividends. His ability to make some early plays held the safeties in coverage and eventually allowed the Steelers to get their running game going. Denver will blitz safeties John Lynch and Nick Ferguson early, so expect Miller to get off to a good start again this week.

? Don't expect Denver to come out with the same philosophy it used Sunday. Denver was the No. 2 seed and had a bye in the first round. That bye appeared to hinder its offensive chemistry. Even though the Broncos beat the Patriots, they looked like a team that overscouted themselves with too much time off. They were too quick to abandon their running game. They tried to run inside instead of getting to the edge or using the cut-back runs that have been their bread and butter this season.

In the passing game, QB Jake Plummer threw mostly from the pocket, where he is not as comfortable. The Broncos have had a lot of success this season when Plummer gets out on the edge and throws on the move. In the second half, they got back to doing the things that made them successful. Look for Denver to concentrate on what it does best this week. That means Pittsburgh will see a heavy dose of the running game and Plummer outside the pocket.

? Don't expect much to change in the defensive game plans of these two teams this week. Both teams blitzed a lot last week, and they will bring pressure early and often again this week. Each team has one key player that must be accounted for on every snap. For Pittsburgh, it is Troy Polamalu. He will blitz off the edge, from a linebacker position or from the slot. For Denver, the player is John Lynch. He came off the edge numerous times last week, but they will also bring him some up the middle to get in the face of Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger.

? A big reason Denver struggled in the first half last week was its inability to establish the running game. Some of that had to do with play-calling, but some of it also had to do with New England's extremely physical defense. Denver better buckle up its chinstraps, because there is no defense in the NFL as physical as the one it will face this week. Denver has an undersized offensive line that relies on zone blocking, cut blocking and getting to the second level.

Denver's interior offensive linemen will have their hands full vs. Pittsburgh. New England NT Vince Wilfork gave them fits last week, and on Sunday Denver will face the best nose tackle in the NFL, Casey Hampton. Hampton is a load at the point of attack and is extremely difficult to move. His ability to prevent Denver OC Tom Nalen from getting to the second level could disrupt the entire Denver offense. Hampton doesn't get a lot of credit because he doesn't have many explosive plays, but his ability to dominate inside is the key to everything the Steelers get accomplished on the defensive side of the ball.

? Much attention has been given to Pittsburgh's Cover 2 defense, but Steelers actually have been playing very little Cover 2 in the playoffs. A big reason is they have been blitzing on a fairly regular basis. When the linebackers come on the inside "X" stunt, Pittsburgh will play Cover 2 behind it. SS Troy Polamalu has been blitzing the most lately. When Polamalu comes on the blitz, the Steelers are actually playing more Cover 3. The corners outside are pretty much in man coverage.

Pittsburgh's corners struggle in man coverage, so it is imperative that the blitz is effective. If the Steelers blitz and don't force Plummer to get rid of the ball earlier than he would like, he will have a big day finding WRs Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie. In the Cover 3, the most important player on the field becomes FS Chris Hope. He has to determine where he is going to help over the top and also must be aware of TE Jeb Putzier coming on the intermediate crossing route. If Pittsburgh blitzes Polamalu a lot, Hope has to come up big for the Steelers to win.

? If the Broncos get the ball first, don't be surprised to see them come out in their hurry-up offense. They haven't used it a lot this season, but Plummer has enjoyed success with it in the past. It was apparent again last week that the biggest key for Pittsburgh is getting the lead. When the Steelers have the lead, the game is played at their tempo. Denver does not have to make this game a shootout, but it must speed up the game and try to make Pittsburgh play from behind.

? The one unit that will be under the gun this week is the Denver offensive line. The Broncos watched the tape of Pittsburgh's win Sunday and saw a Steelers' defense that made a pretty good Colts' offensive line look lost and confused. The Colts have an extremely smart offensive line but seemed to struggle making adjustments.

Denver's offensive line is much more athletic and should do a better job of adjusting on the move. Other than ROT George Foster, the unit is light on its feet and can change directions more quickly. This game will come down to Denver's ability to handle the Pittsburgh blitz packages.

? Look for Denver to try to get WR Ashley Lelie involved early again this week. Though Lelie has pretty much underachieved throughout most of his career, he did step up and make a few plays last week. He is a big target with good vertical speed. Lelie was able to draw a questionable pass interference penalty last week.

When Pittsburgh comes on the blitz and goes to its Cover 3 look, Lelie likely will be matched up vs. veteran DC Deshea Townsend. He will have both a height and speed advantage over Townsend. If he gets this matchup, look for Plummer to take shots deep. Lelie will have a good chance to make a play or draw contact for a penalty that can give Denver great field position.

Special Teams
The most dangerous man on the field in terms of special teams will be Pittsburgh return man Antwaan Randle El. He looked so natural as the punt returner in the last six weeks of the season. Randle El is making good decisions. He is extremely quick and is doing an excellent job of making cuts with little wasted motion. He is a threat to score any time he touches the ball, and you can see opposing coaches holding their breath until he is down on the ground. Denver's solid cover units will have their hands full trying to contain Randle El this week.

Both teams are excellent in the kicking game. Denver PT Todd Sauerbrun kept the New England offense bottled up with his ability to knock the ball down inside the 10-yard line. Sauerbrun also handles the kickoffs and forced a fumble that led to a Denver score. Pittsburgh PT Chris Gardocki is also very good at getting the ball to land inside the 10 and can spin it back away from the end zone. Denver PK Jason Elam holds the edge over Pittsburgh's Jeff Reed in the kicking battle, but the overall advantage has to go to Pittsburgh because of of Randle El.

Matchups
? Denver MLB Al Wilson vs. Pittsburgh RBs Willie Parker/Jerome Bettis
? Pittsburgh SS Troy Polamalu vs. Denver QB Jake Plummer
? Denver LOT Matt Lepsis vs. Pittsburgh ROLB Joey Porter
? Pittsburgh DC Ike Taylor vs. Denver WR Rod Smith
? Pittsburgh ILB James Farrior vs. Denver RBs Mike Anderson/Tatum Bell

Scouts' Edge
These two teams share many similarities. They both like to run the ball to open up the passing game. They want their quarterback to manage the game and make plays when opportunities arise. On defense, they both play attacking styles and like to bring their safeties on the blitz. The Steelers had a great game plan Sunday on both sides of the ball. Don't look for them to change much. They will throw early to soften up the Denver defense and open up the running game.

Denver likely will take the opposite approach. Look for the Broncos to come out and run the ball. They need to establish the run quickly this Sunday because so much of their pass offense is based off bootlegs and the play-action passing game. We've seen that the Broncos really struggle on offense if they have to play a pass-first game.

On defense, both teams have outstanding front sevens. Pittsburgh has a physical front three, and Denver has the most athletic and speedy linebacking corps in the NFL, led by MLB Al Wilson.

The one difference is in the secondary, and that could be key this Sunday. Denver DC Champ Bailey is one of the best in the business and is capable of taking away half the field. Look for Pittsburgh to motion WR Hines Ward away from Bailey to get a more appealing matchup. While Pittsburgh has played well on the road, it will be difficult to win in three hostile environments in a row. Denver is 9-0 at home this season, and with both teams being so evenly matched, that will be the difference. Look for Denver to win and move on to the Super Bowl in Detroit.

Prediction: Broncos 23, Steelers 20
 
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