2006 Record: 1-2 -$600
Ok guys here are my plays for the divisional weekend. Good luck to you all!
Play #1. 7 pt. teaser Seattle -2.5/Indy -2.5
Risking $1,000 to win $769
Play #2. 7 pt. teaser New England +10/Carolina +10
Risking $1,000 to win $769
I belive this is a good weekend to use the good old teaser. Seattle and Indy are clearly the better teams, playing at home where they usually both dominate and i didn't want to lay -9.5 or -10 on either - i'll back them both laying under a FG. I will consider it a pretty big upset if either team wins by 2 or less or loses outright - but of course i live by the theory anything can and will happen in the NFL and you always have to expect the unexpected. However the Seattle/Indy teaser appears to be a solid play allowing the clearly better team win by just 3. If any weekend games will result in blowouts, clearly Seattle and Indy have the highest probablility to be those games. Play the teaser in this one.
On the flipside i think you have 2 live dogs in New England and Carolina. I believe both these matchups will be close. While i think you have to give a slight edge to Denver and Chicago because they are at home and that should give each team an edge. I think these 2 games will most likely be 7 point differentials or less either way. I feel good about taking +10 for NE and +10 for Carolina. Both should be in the games until the end. I still project Denver and Chicago to win those games outright but by a margin less than 10. Which brings me to my 3rd play:
Play #3. 4 team ML parlay - all 4 home faves
Seattle -425/Denver -155/Indy -450/Chicago -140
Pays 3.26 to 1 odds
Risking $300 to win $978
We all know Faves in this round have a high% winning straight up. We'll see how true to form this goes. I'll take the 3.26 to 1 odds that they do all win outright. I'll also do this one for fun:
Play #4. 4 team fave parlay:
Seattle -9.5/Denver -2.5/Indy -9.5/Chi -2.5
11.06 to 1 odds
Risking $100 to win $1,106
I'll take a shot here that all 4 faves could come through. I'm in the mood to take some chances and gamble for the big score today! Only games i bought down hafl point was Denver to -2.5 and Chi to -2.5..if we have a "fave cover weekend" it will produce a nice return.
Looking at the matchups objectively though i think you could make a case that all 4 dogs may possibly cover - lot of points w/ Wash and Pitt and NE and Carolina could grind out small wins. In case the dogs all show up to play this weekend i'll make 2 more parlays - i'm playing all 4 dogs on the moneyline (i know this is a longshot but i said i was in the mood to take a chance today!) and also all 4 dogs - and i've manipulated the spreads by purchasing some points:
Play #5 - all 4 dogs on the moneyline parlay
Wash +325/NE +135/Pitt +350/Car +120
97.88 to 1 odds
Risking $100 to win $9,788
Play #6 - all 4 dogs plus the points - bought a full point on wash and pitt and 1/2 point on NE and carolina
Wash +10.5 -130/NE +3.5 -130/Pitt +10.5 -130/Car +3.5 -145
8.36 to 1 odds
Risking $100 to win $836
In conclusion - i feel very strongly about the Seattle/Indy and Car/NE teasers - and am playing those 2 teasers strongly. I wouldn't be surprised to see all 4 home teams come away w/ victories today - so like the 4 team ML parlay - and who knows maybe all 4 can win and cover. On the flipside - maybe i'm dead wrong and all the dogs cover...heck i'd love to see all 4 moneyline dogs win outright! I may be in position to hedge some of the plays going into tomorrow - say both dogs win outright today or something - I'll play it by ear and let you know if i'm making any halftimes or hedge adjustments. I know last weekend could have hedged both the Jax and Cincy games at the half - when I had a bad feeling about how the 2nd halfs would play out (that the faves would take control) - and i failed to hedge. Won't happen this weekend if i see a spot to adjust - hopefully things will go as i project and these teasers cover!
Have a good weekend - time to get ready to watch some great playoff football! Good luck w/ whatever you play.
--SAVE IT
Ok guys here are my plays for the divisional weekend. Good luck to you all!
Play #1. 7 pt. teaser Seattle -2.5/Indy -2.5
Risking $1,000 to win $769
Play #2. 7 pt. teaser New England +10/Carolina +10
Risking $1,000 to win $769
I belive this is a good weekend to use the good old teaser. Seattle and Indy are clearly the better teams, playing at home where they usually both dominate and i didn't want to lay -9.5 or -10 on either - i'll back them both laying under a FG. I will consider it a pretty big upset if either team wins by 2 or less or loses outright - but of course i live by the theory anything can and will happen in the NFL and you always have to expect the unexpected. However the Seattle/Indy teaser appears to be a solid play allowing the clearly better team win by just 3. If any weekend games will result in blowouts, clearly Seattle and Indy have the highest probablility to be those games. Play the teaser in this one.
On the flipside i think you have 2 live dogs in New England and Carolina. I believe both these matchups will be close. While i think you have to give a slight edge to Denver and Chicago because they are at home and that should give each team an edge. I think these 2 games will most likely be 7 point differentials or less either way. I feel good about taking +10 for NE and +10 for Carolina. Both should be in the games until the end. I still project Denver and Chicago to win those games outright but by a margin less than 10. Which brings me to my 3rd play:
Play #3. 4 team ML parlay - all 4 home faves
Seattle -425/Denver -155/Indy -450/Chicago -140
Pays 3.26 to 1 odds
Risking $300 to win $978
We all know Faves in this round have a high% winning straight up. We'll see how true to form this goes. I'll take the 3.26 to 1 odds that they do all win outright. I'll also do this one for fun:
Play #4. 4 team fave parlay:
Seattle -9.5/Denver -2.5/Indy -9.5/Chi -2.5
11.06 to 1 odds
Risking $100 to win $1,106
I'll take a shot here that all 4 faves could come through. I'm in the mood to take some chances and gamble for the big score today! Only games i bought down hafl point was Denver to -2.5 and Chi to -2.5..if we have a "fave cover weekend" it will produce a nice return.
Looking at the matchups objectively though i think you could make a case that all 4 dogs may possibly cover - lot of points w/ Wash and Pitt and NE and Carolina could grind out small wins. In case the dogs all show up to play this weekend i'll make 2 more parlays - i'm playing all 4 dogs on the moneyline (i know this is a longshot but i said i was in the mood to take a chance today!) and also all 4 dogs - and i've manipulated the spreads by purchasing some points:
Play #5 - all 4 dogs on the moneyline parlay
Wash +325/NE +135/Pitt +350/Car +120
97.88 to 1 odds
Risking $100 to win $9,788
Play #6 - all 4 dogs plus the points - bought a full point on wash and pitt and 1/2 point on NE and carolina
Wash +10.5 -130/NE +3.5 -130/Pitt +10.5 -130/Car +3.5 -145
8.36 to 1 odds
Risking $100 to win $836
In conclusion - i feel very strongly about the Seattle/Indy and Car/NE teasers - and am playing those 2 teasers strongly. I wouldn't be surprised to see all 4 home teams come away w/ victories today - so like the 4 team ML parlay - and who knows maybe all 4 can win and cover. On the flipside - maybe i'm dead wrong and all the dogs cover...heck i'd love to see all 4 moneyline dogs win outright! I may be in position to hedge some of the plays going into tomorrow - say both dogs win outright today or something - I'll play it by ear and let you know if i'm making any halftimes or hedge adjustments. I know last weekend could have hedged both the Jax and Cincy games at the half - when I had a bad feeling about how the 2nd halfs would play out (that the faves would take control) - and i failed to hedge. Won't happen this weekend if i see a spot to adjust - hopefully things will go as i project and these teasers cover!
Have a good weekend - time to get ready to watch some great playoff football! Good luck w/ whatever you play.
--SAVE IT
