NFL reggae: fawgetaboutit
NFL playoffs: 21-43 -151.44
Oops on the Jags & Eagles in that wild card. Didn't get punished on the teasers, for a change. Player props showed a profit; hand pushing out from the grave (sorry, Stephen King).
Speaking of player props, I had too many but will summon the ghost of Darrell Huff (How to Lie with Statistics) and will provide the evidence that mankind can survive off of player props alone.
Anytime TD scorers (or 1st TD scorer) was an overall push as Wild Card round saw me go a mere 5-16. The five hits were at from +240 Kincaid, +270 Jayden Reed, +310's on Jalen Coker and Colby Parkinson, and +375 on DJ Moore. Blind nut still chasing the squirrel on these soothsayer's scattered bones.
Went 28-11 on remaining player props. Highlights included 14-4 on receiving props and 9-4 on rushing props. Moving on.
===
bills +106 200/212
Patriots -3 -114 150/131.58
---
P2 1H bills@Broncos un21.5 +105 / 1st half 49ers@Seahawks un21.5 -105 <+300> 50/150.12
P2 1H bills@Broncos un21.5 +105 / rams -197 <+209> 50/104.53
P2 1st half 49ers@Seahawks un21.5 -105 / 1H Patriots -160 <+217> 50/108.63
---
T2/6 bills +7.5 / Seahawks -1 -130 130/100
T3/10 bills +11 / 49ers@Seahawks un55 / texans@Patriots un51 -130 130/100
T2/6.5 bills@Broncos un52.5 / texans@Patriots un47.5 -120 120/100
T2/6.5 49ers@Seahawks un51.5 / texans@Patriots un47.5 -120 120/100
=1000(9)
Broncos Troy Franklin ov2.5 receptions +130 50/65
Broncos Evan Engram ov20.5 rec -118 59/50
Bills Dalton Kincaid anytime TD +280 50/140
Bills Keon Coleman ov21.5 rec yards -110 55/50
Bills Dawson Knox ov21.5 rec -110 110/100
---
49ers Christian McCaffrey 1st TD scorer w/Second Chance +600 50/300
---
Pats TreVeyon Henderson 1st TD scorer w/Second Chance +950 50/475
Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov44.5 rush+rec -110 110/100
Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov39.5 rush +100 100/100
---
Rams Puka Nacua anytime TD -112 112/100
Rams Kyren Williams ov70.5 rush+rec -118 177/150
Bears Colston Loveland anytime TD +203 50/101.50
Bears Colston Loveland ov54.5 rec +100 50/50
---
P2 Bills James Cook anytime TD -112 /
/ Seat Kenneth Walker ov54.5 rush -115 <+253> 50/126.94
P2 Bills Josh Allen anytime TD -107 /
/ Seat Zach Charbonnet ov46.5 rush -120 <+254> 50/127.34
P2 Bills Keon Coleman anytime TD +507 /
/ Seat Zach Charbonnet anytime TD -101 <+1108> 20/221.60
P2 Broncos Courtland Sutton anytime TD +204 /
/ Seat Zach Charbonnet anytime TD -101 <+505> 30/151.50
P2 Bills Dalton Kincaid ov35.5 rec -112 /
/ Rams Kyren Williams ov57.5 rush -115 <+253> 50/126.94
P3 Seat Kenneth Walker ov70.5 rush+rec -110 /
/ Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov62.5 rush+rec -118 /
/ Rams Blake Corum ov rush+rec 46.5 -115 <+559> 40/223.76
P3 Seat Zach Charbonnet ov60.5 rush+rec -115 /
/ Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov34.5 rush -110 /
/ Rams Blake Corum ov42.5 rush -115 <+567> 40/226.91
P2 49ers Jake Tonges anytime TD +310 /
/ Texans Jayden Higgins anytime TD +325 <+1642> 20/328.50
P2 49ers Christian McCaffrey anytime TD -123 /
/ Bears D'Andre Swift ov53.5 rush -110 <+246> 50/123.06
P2 Pats TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD +178 /
/ Bears D'Andre Swift ov69.5 rush+rec -110 <+430> 50/215.36
P2 Pats Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD +165 /
/ Rams Colby Parkinson anytime TD +234 <+785> 50/392.55
=1473(24)
Latest injury reports I've heard say that while 49ers Fred Warner is improving, he has been ruled out for this one vs Seahawks. Speaking of Seahawks, Sam Darnold is dealing with an oblique injury which apparently cropped up just yesterday/Thursday. It also sounds like Bears Rome Odunze might have returned with a foot injury that will likely require surgery during the offseason.
While the specific matchups are important for the player props, I'm finding it quite valuable to check out the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately angle on such dives, so permit me to spew a few rationalizations.
--Allen 3-1 career vs Broncos, only game in Denver was Dec.2020 where Allen went for 359 passing w/2TD/0int, and ran in for another 2 scores--start to finish trucking for 48-19 W (vs Drew Lock; Buff's Diggs & Cole Beasley both with monster games); Allen 1 L vs Den Nov'23 vs Russell Wilson (L22-24 on Den Will Lutz FG on final play); most recent last season's playoffs, 31-7 as Den scored first for 7-0 before being shut-out after (Box Nix 93.7 PR & Josh 135.4)
--vs Bills poor run D, main back, for Sat., RJ Harvey only 3.7 y/c on 146 carries, and he's had 10+ carries in 6 of their past 7 games, only once averaging 4 y/c (at Raiders); TD scorer, maybe (7 rushing + 5 receiving on year), but yards props look passable
--Den Troy Franklin ov2.5 recepts +125*mgm/+130*pinn (done in 14 of 17, including 12 of past 14) / ov22.5 receiving yards -105 (done in 10 of 17, including 6 of past 10)
--Den Evan Engram ov20.5 rec -118* (done in 3 straight & 5 of past 7)
--Bills Keon Coleman ov21.5 rec yards -110* (done in 2 straight & 8 of 13 he's played (61.5%)) / anytime TD +475.+507
--Bills Dawson Knox ov21.5 rec -110* (done in 3 straight, 6 of past 7, and 9 of past 11)
--Seat Kenneth Walker ov54.5 rush -115 (done in 2 of last 3 (w.51 @Car) & 6 of last 9)
--Seat Kenneth Walker ov70.5 rush+rec -110 (done in 5 of last 8)*
--Seat Zach Charbonnet ov46.5 rush -120 (done in 2 straight)
--Seat Zach Charbonnet ov60.5 rush+rec -115 (done in 2 straight)
--Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov39.5 rush +100* (done in 6 straight) / +165 anytime TD(pref)
--Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov34.5 rush -110* (done in 2 of past 3 & 9 of past 11) / +185 anytime TD / 1st TD +950
--Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov63.5 rush+rec -110 (done in 6 straight)
--Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov44.5 rush+rec -115* (done in 2 of past 3 & 9 of past 11)
--Rams Kyren Williams ov57.5 rush -115 (done in 6 of past 7, and 9 of past 11)
--Rams Blake Corum ov42.5 rush -115* (done in 6 of past 7) / anytime TD +180
--Rams Kyren Williams ov70.5 rush+rec -118* (done in 7 straight, 10 of past 11, and 15 of 18 overall (83.3%))
--Rams Blake Corum ov rush+rec 46.5 -115 (done in 6 of past 7) / anytime TD +180
--Rams Puka Nacua anytime TD -128.-112 (done in 4 straight & 5 of past 6)
--Rams Colby Parkinson anytime TD +234pinn/+225mgm (done in 2 straight and 7 of past 10)
--Bears D'Andre Swift ov53.5 rush -110* (done in 6 of past 7, 8 of past 10, and 10 of past 13)
--Bears D'Andre Swift ov69.5 rush+rec -110* (done in 11 of past 13 (84.6%))
--Bears Colston Loveland ov54.5 rec +100 (done in 3 straight and 4 of past 5) / anytime TD +160.+203pinn*
--Bears Luther Burden ov37.5 rec -115 (done in 4 of past 5 (missed with 35 vDet) & 6 of past 9) / anytime TD +260
Shit, I have no Burden yet. For player props, I mean.
I could probably clean that mess up some, but I've thought the same about my apartment.
And, what's my limit on the tune share? Suffering some withdrawal since bailing on my herb thread.
Good Luck
NFL playoffs: 21-43 -151.44
Oops on the Jags & Eagles in that wild card. Didn't get punished on the teasers, for a change. Player props showed a profit; hand pushing out from the grave (sorry, Stephen King).
Speaking of player props, I had too many but will summon the ghost of Darrell Huff (How to Lie with Statistics) and will provide the evidence that mankind can survive off of player props alone.
Anytime TD scorers (or 1st TD scorer) was an overall push as Wild Card round saw me go a mere 5-16. The five hits were at from +240 Kincaid, +270 Jayden Reed, +310's on Jalen Coker and Colby Parkinson, and +375 on DJ Moore. Blind nut still chasing the squirrel on these soothsayer's scattered bones.
Went 28-11 on remaining player props. Highlights included 14-4 on receiving props and 9-4 on rushing props. Moving on.
===
bills +106 200/212
Patriots -3 -114 150/131.58
---
P2 1H bills@Broncos un21.5 +105 / 1st half 49ers@Seahawks un21.5 -105 <+300> 50/150.12
P2 1H bills@Broncos un21.5 +105 / rams -197 <+209> 50/104.53
P2 1st half 49ers@Seahawks un21.5 -105 / 1H Patriots -160 <+217> 50/108.63
---
T2/6 bills +7.5 / Seahawks -1 -130 130/100
T3/10 bills +11 / 49ers@Seahawks un55 / texans@Patriots un51 -130 130/100
T2/6.5 bills@Broncos un52.5 / texans@Patriots un47.5 -120 120/100
T2/6.5 49ers@Seahawks un51.5 / texans@Patriots un47.5 -120 120/100
=1000(9)
Broncos Troy Franklin ov2.5 receptions +130 50/65
Broncos Evan Engram ov20.5 rec -118 59/50
Bills Dalton Kincaid anytime TD +280 50/140
Bills Keon Coleman ov21.5 rec yards -110 55/50
Bills Dawson Knox ov21.5 rec -110 110/100
---
49ers Christian McCaffrey 1st TD scorer w/Second Chance +600 50/300
---
Pats TreVeyon Henderson 1st TD scorer w/Second Chance +950 50/475
Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov44.5 rush+rec -110 110/100
Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov39.5 rush +100 100/100
---
Rams Puka Nacua anytime TD -112 112/100
Rams Kyren Williams ov70.5 rush+rec -118 177/150
Bears Colston Loveland anytime TD +203 50/101.50
Bears Colston Loveland ov54.5 rec +100 50/50
---
P2 Bills James Cook anytime TD -112 /
/ Seat Kenneth Walker ov54.5 rush -115 <+253> 50/126.94
P2 Bills Josh Allen anytime TD -107 /
/ Seat Zach Charbonnet ov46.5 rush -120 <+254> 50/127.34
P2 Bills Keon Coleman anytime TD +507 /
/ Seat Zach Charbonnet anytime TD -101 <+1108> 20/221.60
P2 Broncos Courtland Sutton anytime TD +204 /
/ Seat Zach Charbonnet anytime TD -101 <+505> 30/151.50
P2 Bills Dalton Kincaid ov35.5 rec -112 /
/ Rams Kyren Williams ov57.5 rush -115 <+253> 50/126.94
P3 Seat Kenneth Walker ov70.5 rush+rec -110 /
/ Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov62.5 rush+rec -118 /
/ Rams Blake Corum ov rush+rec 46.5 -115 <+559> 40/223.76
P3 Seat Zach Charbonnet ov60.5 rush+rec -115 /
/ Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov34.5 rush -110 /
/ Rams Blake Corum ov42.5 rush -115 <+567> 40/226.91
P2 49ers Jake Tonges anytime TD +310 /
/ Texans Jayden Higgins anytime TD +325 <+1642> 20/328.50
P2 49ers Christian McCaffrey anytime TD -123 /
/ Bears D'Andre Swift ov53.5 rush -110 <+246> 50/123.06
P2 Pats TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD +178 /
/ Bears D'Andre Swift ov69.5 rush+rec -110 <+430> 50/215.36
P2 Pats Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD +165 /
/ Rams Colby Parkinson anytime TD +234 <+785> 50/392.55
=1473(24)
Latest injury reports I've heard say that while 49ers Fred Warner is improving, he has been ruled out for this one vs Seahawks. Speaking of Seahawks, Sam Darnold is dealing with an oblique injury which apparently cropped up just yesterday/Thursday. It also sounds like Bears Rome Odunze might have returned with a foot injury that will likely require surgery during the offseason.
While the specific matchups are important for the player props, I'm finding it quite valuable to check out the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately angle on such dives, so permit me to spew a few rationalizations.
--Allen 3-1 career vs Broncos, only game in Denver was Dec.2020 where Allen went for 359 passing w/2TD/0int, and ran in for another 2 scores--start to finish trucking for 48-19 W (vs Drew Lock; Buff's Diggs & Cole Beasley both with monster games); Allen 1 L vs Den Nov'23 vs Russell Wilson (L22-24 on Den Will Lutz FG on final play); most recent last season's playoffs, 31-7 as Den scored first for 7-0 before being shut-out after (Box Nix 93.7 PR & Josh 135.4)
--vs Bills poor run D, main back, for Sat., RJ Harvey only 3.7 y/c on 146 carries, and he's had 10+ carries in 6 of their past 7 games, only once averaging 4 y/c (at Raiders); TD scorer, maybe (7 rushing + 5 receiving on year), but yards props look passable
--Den Troy Franklin ov2.5 recepts +125*mgm/+130*pinn (done in 14 of 17, including 12 of past 14) / ov22.5 receiving yards -105 (done in 10 of 17, including 6 of past 10)
--Den Evan Engram ov20.5 rec -118* (done in 3 straight & 5 of past 7)
--Bills Keon Coleman ov21.5 rec yards -110* (done in 2 straight & 8 of 13 he's played (61.5%)) / anytime TD +475.+507
--Bills Dawson Knox ov21.5 rec -110* (done in 3 straight, 6 of past 7, and 9 of past 11)
--Seat Kenneth Walker ov54.5 rush -115 (done in 2 of last 3 (w.51 @Car) & 6 of last 9)
--Seat Kenneth Walker ov70.5 rush+rec -110 (done in 5 of last 8)*
--Seat Zach Charbonnet ov46.5 rush -120 (done in 2 straight)
--Seat Zach Charbonnet ov60.5 rush+rec -115 (done in 2 straight)
--Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov39.5 rush +100* (done in 6 straight) / +165 anytime TD(pref)
--Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov34.5 rush -110* (done in 2 of past 3 & 9 of past 11) / +185 anytime TD / 1st TD +950
--Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov63.5 rush+rec -110 (done in 6 straight)
--Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov44.5 rush+rec -115* (done in 2 of past 3 & 9 of past 11)
--Rams Kyren Williams ov57.5 rush -115 (done in 6 of past 7, and 9 of past 11)
--Rams Blake Corum ov42.5 rush -115* (done in 6 of past 7) / anytime TD +180
--Rams Kyren Williams ov70.5 rush+rec -118* (done in 7 straight, 10 of past 11, and 15 of 18 overall (83.3%))
--Rams Blake Corum ov rush+rec 46.5 -115 (done in 6 of past 7) / anytime TD +180
--Rams Puka Nacua anytime TD -128.-112 (done in 4 straight & 5 of past 6)
--Rams Colby Parkinson anytime TD +234pinn/+225mgm (done in 2 straight and 7 of past 10)
--Bears D'Andre Swift ov53.5 rush -110* (done in 6 of past 7, 8 of past 10, and 10 of past 13)
--Bears D'Andre Swift ov69.5 rush+rec -110* (done in 11 of past 13 (84.6%))
--Bears Colston Loveland ov54.5 rec +100 (done in 3 straight and 4 of past 5) / anytime TD +160.+203pinn*
--Bears Luther Burden ov37.5 rec -115 (done in 4 of past 5 (missed with 35 vDet) & 6 of past 9) / anytime TD +260
Shit, I have no Burden yet. For player props, I mean.
I could probably clean that mess up some, but I've thought the same about my apartment.
And, what's my limit on the tune share? Suffering some withdrawal since bailing on my herb thread.
Good Luck
