does anybody know what % of "shaded" totals hit?

[Stag]

Here's the deal......
I have just been hooked up with a local bookie who offers TOTALS on hockey games. Maximum bet is $250. All of his totals are -110.........meaning there is no "shaded" price (like 5 over 35)
SO......if I find what the "real" vegas line is for each game (and most ARE shaded one way), I can just bet the way of the shaded side.
Are you with me?
I would have the BETTER odds (-110) each time instead of having to lay -135 sometimes.
Basically, I would just have to hit 52.38% of my plays, when, in actuality, my chances of winning a game would be well over 53% (just assuming here).
I would like to research past results. But the only databases I can find also have "flat" totals. Can anyone provide me with a database with "real" closing lines like "5.5un25" ?
I would REALLY appreciate your opinions on this.
Does anybody have a local like this?
Stag

 

[sandwedge]

try donbest dot com archives. they list links for like the last six months but i think you can go back about 2 years if you make the appropriate changes to the url, which should be intuitive once you work with them some(ie in the url change the 2000 to 2001 and if for example your are looking at the Apr 2002 page then change the "0204.htm" to "0104.htm" to get the Apr 2001 menu)

it is not in database form but the info is there if you want to sort thru it.

hope this helps

 

[Penguinfan]

On the surface it appears your guy is not very smart, but believe it or not it is just like spreads in football where the dogs cover about as much as favorites, it is very close to equal which side covers as far as the shaded line goes, HOWEVER if you pick your spots then you should be able to ruin him on this play.
I have this kind of info in my data base, but it will take a while to get you an exact number, I'll work on it.
penguinfan

 

[Stag]

thanks penguinfan