Couple of things to consider... ARIZONA at home vs RH starters were -375 on the year at 26-22. BRAVES are in their best spot, on the road vs LH starters where they hit for +980 on the season at 8-1, this based on $100 per play.
HP CRAWFORD is not exactly a homer ump as his record is 9-18 A/H and 9-15 O/U with a 8.37 rpg average. The HOME figure is a bit misleading however, as he tends to favor the 'Better' team, as home DOGS are only 2-7 with him. Thus, if you factor this in, his record for the FAVORED team is actually 14-13 and not as scary.
With JOHNSON riding a 7 game playoff losing streak, the longest in history btw, and the fact that ATL has been off for three days, this game is a tough one. You can truly justify a play on either squad in my opinion, but as we all know, there is "only" one RIGHT SIDE, the winning one!
Myself, I'm throwing out the stats and playing the DBACKS and OVER. I think ARIZONA finally gives JOHNSON something to work with and relaxes him so he can be his dominant self. I'm seriously thinking of parlaying the RUNLINE to the OVER as I see Atl getting maybe 2 runs, and ARIZONA at least 6 in this one. No real stats to back that, just what I feel is gonna happen... ZONA knows they need the BIG UNIT to be "right", meaning, mentally, and giving him a big cushion early will certainly do the trick!