For years I have been aware of the so called "wise guy" or syndicate action, but never really understood how to get it soon enough to get the good numbers before the lines moved or how to know when it was going to be hot or cold. The end result was that I often ended up playing into losing plays at lines that were really awful because of the way all the stores moved their lines to adjust for the moves. At best, I was only able to break even most of the time.
A few months ago I started researching ways to (1) get the moves before the lines had all been adjusted and (2) better determine when the STEAM MOVES as I call them would turn cold.
??
With the help of fellow handicappers on this forum the results have actually been better than anticipated.
??
In order to start identifying the moves as quickly as possible I began subscribing to a service to provide "real time" lines from over 20 major offshore books. After the implementation of this system I began to electronically monitor several key stores at once and when four or more of these books moved their lines by a predetermined amount (5 cents or more in baseball) within a 15 second period of time an alert would be triggered. I could then immediately notify the members of this forum that there had been a STEAM MOVE usually within 30 seconds of the move and ahead of the move at many other stores.
In my opinion public action could not normally create such across the board rapid movement of lines within such a short period of time. It had to be either syndicate action or an on purpose proactive line change at multiple stores to make it appear there had been syndicate action.
Still, timely notification was only half the equation. The other half of the mystery remained. "When is steam hot and when is it cold?"
After the All-Star break I began logging these moves and discovered an interesting phenomenon (thanks to Billy Barooooooo and Wizard of Odds). During the week (Monday - Friday) the plays have been doing well, but on weekends they have been awful . . . so bad in fact that they are worth fading or playing the other side.
Could it be that the real "wise guy" action was coming in during the week and on weekends (when the public action increases greatly) someone (as in group) was generating false moves in order to get the public to coat tail into these plays and recover the money lost to the syndicates during the week when public money was often sparse??
I don't know, but it was a question worth investigating. Here is what we have discovered. (I am writing this on August 7, 2001 and we began this research right after the All-Star break so data input is somewhat limited.)
STEAM MOVES (July 13, 2001 thru August 6, 2001)
MO-FR 20-14-3 745
SA-SU 13-21-1 -1074
YTD 33-35-4 -329
SU 06-08-0 -332
MO 05-01-0 500
TU 06-06-0 30
WE 02-04-0 -260
TH 05-01-1 495
FR 02-02-2 -20
SA 07-13-1 -742
Will this trend hold up? Good question. I wish I knew the answer for sure. If it starts to change we will be on top of it quickly and will be notifying forum members.
It will be interesting to see how the steam moves work in college football where most of the play is isolated on Saturday's. We will just have to carefully monitor these moves and use caution in their play.
In the meantime, I don't know of anywhere you can get these moves quicker or cheaper (free) than right here at MJ's.
Good luck . . . and don't get burned by the steam.
NCU
A few months ago I started researching ways to (1) get the moves before the lines had all been adjusted and (2) better determine when the STEAM MOVES as I call them would turn cold.
??
With the help of fellow handicappers on this forum the results have actually been better than anticipated.
??
In order to start identifying the moves as quickly as possible I began subscribing to a service to provide "real time" lines from over 20 major offshore books. After the implementation of this system I began to electronically monitor several key stores at once and when four or more of these books moved their lines by a predetermined amount (5 cents or more in baseball) within a 15 second period of time an alert would be triggered. I could then immediately notify the members of this forum that there had been a STEAM MOVE usually within 30 seconds of the move and ahead of the move at many other stores.
In my opinion public action could not normally create such across the board rapid movement of lines within such a short period of time. It had to be either syndicate action or an on purpose proactive line change at multiple stores to make it appear there had been syndicate action.
Still, timely notification was only half the equation. The other half of the mystery remained. "When is steam hot and when is it cold?"
After the All-Star break I began logging these moves and discovered an interesting phenomenon (thanks to Billy Barooooooo and Wizard of Odds). During the week (Monday - Friday) the plays have been doing well, but on weekends they have been awful . . . so bad in fact that they are worth fading or playing the other side.
Could it be that the real "wise guy" action was coming in during the week and on weekends (when the public action increases greatly) someone (as in group) was generating false moves in order to get the public to coat tail into these plays and recover the money lost to the syndicates during the week when public money was often sparse??
I don't know, but it was a question worth investigating. Here is what we have discovered. (I am writing this on August 7, 2001 and we began this research right after the All-Star break so data input is somewhat limited.)
STEAM MOVES (July 13, 2001 thru August 6, 2001)
MO-FR 20-14-3 745
SA-SU 13-21-1 -1074
YTD 33-35-4 -329
SU 06-08-0 -332
MO 05-01-0 500
TU 06-06-0 30
WE 02-04-0 -260
TH 05-01-1 495
FR 02-02-2 -20
SA 07-13-1 -742
Will this trend hold up? Good question. I wish I knew the answer for sure. If it starts to change we will be on top of it quickly and will be notifying forum members.
It will be interesting to see how the steam moves work in college football where most of the play is isolated on Saturday's. We will just have to carefully monitor these moves and use caution in their play.
In the meantime, I don't know of anywhere you can get these moves quicker or cheaper (free) than right here at MJ's.
Good luck . . . and don't get burned by the steam.
NCU
