2 Star Selection
DENVER (+1 or more) 95 Indiana 89
07-Mar-04 07:05 PM Pacific Time
Indiana has won and covered in each of the first 3 games on this road- trip, but the Pacers are due for a fall tonight, as road favorites that cover in 3 or more consecutive games have historically let down if visiting a winning team. Indiana qualifies in a negative 21-62-3 ATS situation that is based on that premise. My ratings favor Indiana by 1 point and I?ll take 1 point or more with Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet.
COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
RUTGERS (-1 or better) 72 Seton Hall 64
07-Mar-04 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Rutgers has played considerably better at home this season than they have on the road, which is nothing new for a Gary Waters? coach team. Waters? teams are 53-31-3 ATS in all home games at Kent State and Rutgers, including 42-15-3 ATS when not favored by more than 9 points. Rutgers is 18-5 ATS in conference home games in Waters? 3 seasons here and the Scarlet Knights are in a good situation to continue that trend. Rutgers applies to a very strong 40-9 ATS last home game revenge situation and the line is fair (I favor Seton Hall by ? a point). I?ll take Rutgers at -1 or better and I?ll take the Scarlet Knights in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or better.
Downgrade Rutgers to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are pick or -1.
3 Star Selection
SYRACUSE (+2 points or more) 76 Connecticut 71
07-Mar-04 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Syracuse is a 61% play as an underdog going back many years under coach Jim Boeheim, as he tends to get the most out of his team when challenged. Connecticut will certainly be a challenge, but the Orangemen are 31-12-2 ATS as an underdog against teams with a win percentage of greater than .800 and they have a huge revenge motive for an embarrassing 56-84 loss at Connecticut earlier this season. Syracuse applies to a very strong 40-9 ATS last home game revenge situation and Boeheim is a perfect 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS when avenging a loss of 20 points or more (they were underdogs in all 4 of those games). Connecticut, meanwhile, applies in a negative 29-75-2 ATS situation that plays against really good teams following their last home game. My ratings favor Connecticut by 3 points in this game (adjusting for Syracuse without Billy Edelin, who left the team in early January). I?ll take 2 points or more with Syracuse and make them a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
Downgrade Syracuse to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of less than 3 points.
2 Star Selection
MISSOURI (-4 points or less) 80 Kansas 69
07-Mar-04 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Kansas hasn?t beaten a good team on the road all season and the improving Tigers qualify as a good team. The Jayhawks are only 3-6 ATS as the visitor this season, with those spread wins coming against TCU, Colorado and Kansas State. Kansas has visited 4 teams better than that ? Nevada, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, and Texas ? and they?re 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS in those games. Missouri falls somewhere in between those two groups, but they are good enough to beat the Jayhawks today, especially given that the Tigers qualify in a very strong 40-9 ATS last home game revenge situation. Missouri is also playing well at home recently (5-0-1 ATS) and they are 17-7-1 ATS in home games under coach Quin Snyder if they?ve had 3 or more full days off to prepare for an opponent (13-3-1 ATS if not favored by 10 points or more). My ratings favor Missouri by just 2 points, but the situation is strong enough to merit giving up some line value and Missouri would be favored by 8 if I only used their home games against the Jayhawks? road games. I?ll lay 4 points or less with Missouri in a 2-Star Best Bet.
Upgrade Missouri to a 3-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 2 points or less.
2 Star Selection
MARYLAND (-11 points or less) 85 Virginia 67
07-Mar-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Both of these teams are fighting for at large berths in the NCAA Tournament (Maryland is already in as far as I?m concerned) and the Cavaliers are coming off 3 straight upset wins in an effort to state their case (at Clemson and home against North Carolina and Wake Forest). However, teams that win 3 or more consecutive games as underdogs are just 24-58-1 ATS if they?re away from home in their next game and Virginia is only 13-32-2 ATS in conference road games in 6 seasons under coach Pete Gillen. My ratings favor Maryland by 11 points and I?ll lay 11 points or less with the Terrapins in a 2-Star Best Bet.
DENVER (+1 or more) 95 Indiana 89
07-Mar-04 07:05 PM Pacific Time
Indiana has won and covered in each of the first 3 games on this road- trip, but the Pacers are due for a fall tonight, as road favorites that cover in 3 or more consecutive games have historically let down if visiting a winning team. Indiana qualifies in a negative 21-62-3 ATS situation that is based on that premise. My ratings favor Indiana by 1 point and I?ll take 1 point or more with Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet.
COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
RUTGERS (-1 or better) 72 Seton Hall 64
07-Mar-04 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Rutgers has played considerably better at home this season than they have on the road, which is nothing new for a Gary Waters? coach team. Waters? teams are 53-31-3 ATS in all home games at Kent State and Rutgers, including 42-15-3 ATS when not favored by more than 9 points. Rutgers is 18-5 ATS in conference home games in Waters? 3 seasons here and the Scarlet Knights are in a good situation to continue that trend. Rutgers applies to a very strong 40-9 ATS last home game revenge situation and the line is fair (I favor Seton Hall by ? a point). I?ll take Rutgers at -1 or better and I?ll take the Scarlet Knights in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or better.
Downgrade Rutgers to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are pick or -1.
3 Star Selection
SYRACUSE (+2 points or more) 76 Connecticut 71
07-Mar-04 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Syracuse is a 61% play as an underdog going back many years under coach Jim Boeheim, as he tends to get the most out of his team when challenged. Connecticut will certainly be a challenge, but the Orangemen are 31-12-2 ATS as an underdog against teams with a win percentage of greater than .800 and they have a huge revenge motive for an embarrassing 56-84 loss at Connecticut earlier this season. Syracuse applies to a very strong 40-9 ATS last home game revenge situation and Boeheim is a perfect 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS when avenging a loss of 20 points or more (they were underdogs in all 4 of those games). Connecticut, meanwhile, applies in a negative 29-75-2 ATS situation that plays against really good teams following their last home game. My ratings favor Connecticut by 3 points in this game (adjusting for Syracuse without Billy Edelin, who left the team in early January). I?ll take 2 points or more with Syracuse and make them a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
Downgrade Syracuse to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of less than 3 points.
2 Star Selection
MISSOURI (-4 points or less) 80 Kansas 69
07-Mar-04 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Kansas hasn?t beaten a good team on the road all season and the improving Tigers qualify as a good team. The Jayhawks are only 3-6 ATS as the visitor this season, with those spread wins coming against TCU, Colorado and Kansas State. Kansas has visited 4 teams better than that ? Nevada, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, and Texas ? and they?re 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS in those games. Missouri falls somewhere in between those two groups, but they are good enough to beat the Jayhawks today, especially given that the Tigers qualify in a very strong 40-9 ATS last home game revenge situation. Missouri is also playing well at home recently (5-0-1 ATS) and they are 17-7-1 ATS in home games under coach Quin Snyder if they?ve had 3 or more full days off to prepare for an opponent (13-3-1 ATS if not favored by 10 points or more). My ratings favor Missouri by just 2 points, but the situation is strong enough to merit giving up some line value and Missouri would be favored by 8 if I only used their home games against the Jayhawks? road games. I?ll lay 4 points or less with Missouri in a 2-Star Best Bet.
Upgrade Missouri to a 3-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 2 points or less.
2 Star Selection
MARYLAND (-11 points or less) 85 Virginia 67
07-Mar-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Both of these teams are fighting for at large berths in the NCAA Tournament (Maryland is already in as far as I?m concerned) and the Cavaliers are coming off 3 straight upset wins in an effort to state their case (at Clemson and home against North Carolina and Wake Forest). However, teams that win 3 or more consecutive games as underdogs are just 24-58-1 ATS if they?re away from home in their next game and Virginia is only 13-32-2 ATS in conference road games in 6 seasons under coach Pete Gillen. My ratings favor Maryland by 11 points and I?ll lay 11 points or less with the Terrapins in a 2-Star Best Bet.
